Consulting analyst of Bosnia-Herzegovina and All the Balkans with the International Crisis Group among others.

The Hague, The Netherlands
Gonna change my job title to "Senior Analyst for Random-Ass Countries with Too Many Consonants No One has Ever Heard of"
Got a lot of texts last night from pissed off GOP operatives on this story... "We are out here fighting for our lives and these dudes are in some random ass country made up of too many consonants no one has ever heard of taking hundreds of thousands of dollars while telling all of us to chill out because they’ve got it," one told me. Trump world is pushing back on their pushback — saying Blair is "working quite literally around the clock on races." w/ @wsteaks in today's @playbookdc
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Jasmin doesn't allow replies so I'll quote instead. My "framing" was based on addition of all parties with Croat and Serb prefixes, and assumed all others were Bosniak. That's a little off as there is some cross-community voting but it doesn't short-change the Bosniak estimate.
This is tendentious framing. The SNSD lost 20% of its national vote, or over 53,000 votes. Dodik's partners in the SP-DEMOS joint list had the worst result of the night among parties that still secured at least one seat in the state parliament, as their list saw their combined vote total fall by 56%. Their Croat nationalist allies in the HDZ BiH fared even worse than the SNSD, percentage wise, losing just under 29% of their vote from 2022. Komsic's DF posted a terrible result, absolutely, losing just under 54,000 votes or 53% but nearly the whole of that vote clearly went to the ideologically similar SBiH. In contrast, we have no way to explain where such large segments of the HDZ and SNSD vote have gone - they did not go to their intra-ethnic competitors. In other words, the new voting machines clearly gesture at decades of sectarian vote inflation.
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The other point is that we just don’t know how many people live in Bosnia-Herzegovina and therefore we have no idea what the “turnout” is in percentage terms. We just know the totals are down. What part is because of abstention or migration we can’t say.
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This is a neutral framing. @JasminMuj on the other cherry-picks parties to construct a narrative. Perhaps someone might consider that "tendentious".
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Too early to tell what the next Bosnia-Herzegovina gov't will be but it looks likely to include a broad coalition, SDA-SDP-SNSD-HDZ - which would be likely be able to carry out (needed!) constitutional amendment. If ... they can agree.
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For the first time, two of the three members of the Bosnia-Herzegovina presidency will be women - in a region with a reputation for patriarchal norms.
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The big surprise of yesterday's Bosnia-Herzegovina election was how smoothly it went & how quickly results are coming in, thanks to new voting tech (imposed by former @OHR_BiH) ... which was widely, but wrongly, expected to hit Serb & Croat parties hard 1/2
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In fact (and so far) Bosniak and civic parties lost about 1.5 percent compared to 2022, Croat parties lost half a point, and Serb parties gained 2 points. Which could mean fewer BiH Serbs emigrated, or there was more ballot-stuffing in the Federation than in RS. 2/2
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Marko Prelec retweeted
Milorad #Dodik got what he wanted on Sunday. Both his candidates won — for the Republika Srpska and the state-level presidencies — and at the entity level his party (might) finish around five points stronger than in 2022. "Had it not been for Donald #Trump's magnificent victory, we would probably be political dead men today," Dodik told reporters. He thanked Vladimir #Putin [and Benjamin #Netanyahu] for the support, euphorically repeating his aim of dismantling most of 🇧🇦's state-level institutions, and, through a post shared by his daughter, floated himself as the next entity prime minister. In my reaction for the @FinancialTimes I made three quick points: Dodik was the night's biggest "winner"; his aims must be taken seriously rather than dismissed as bluster; and the "Christians vs Muslims" narrative he uses to court Western right-wing circles is dangerous. The next four years will be a major test for 🇧🇦's constitutional order [and if current trends continue: for peace itself]. This goes beyond 🇧🇦. With elections looming in 🇮🇱, the 🇺🇸 and several key European states, friends of the Balkans need to take all of this into account, and act. 🔗 ft.com/content/4ab13290-5208…
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Marko Prelec retweeted
Now here's a commendable first 👇 One of the most educated and charismatic younger leaders of the anti-Vučić opposition doing something virtually unheard of: (a) publicly showing empathy toward SNS voters, (b) sincerely trying to understand why they vote the way they do, and (c) openly recognizing that legitimate socioeconomic concerns, along with other fundamentally honourable motives, lead people to vote for SNS. What's still missing, are at least two things: (1) A frank admission that the practices he denounces are RAMPANT not only in the countries the Serbian opposition likes to look down on, but also in those it admires without good reason (looking at you, Croatia).* (2) A serious reckoning with the politically and morally bankrupt idea of the state as a supposedly neutral referee of the "rules of the game" and nothing more. That idea still drives much of the moralistic and fundamentally anti-democratic criticism of the government for profiting electorally from social policies that benefit broad swaths of Serbian society. The sooner the opposition realizes there is nothing inherently illiberal or authoritarian about a STATE THAT PROVIDES, the better, both for Serbia--and for the opposition's own electoral prospects. Still, kudos to @srdjancvijic One small step for him, perhaps, but potentially a giant leap for opposition-kind. Judging by the comments under his post, though, I wouldn't bet on it just yet. ------- * Just to be on the safe side, a note for the deliberately obtuse: the comparison does NOT make the objectionable practice of "vote buying" (let's call it that) acceptable just because it isn't unique to Serbia. What it does, though, is make the intensity of the fury aimed at the "regime" as its alleged culprit disproportionate, unreasonable and most likely self-defeating and futile.
1/ Ima nešto o delu SNS glasača šta tek nedavno počeo da razumem. Mnogi glasaju za SNS jer su pošteni. Ne vole SNS. Ne veruju Vučiću. Znaju za njihovu korupciju i lopovluk. Ipak kažu: „Moramo za njih.“ Zašto? 🧵
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The moment when the costs of servicing your country’s 120 percent of GDP of debt are spiking is maybe not the time to burn down your school to make the point your school doesn’t have enough money.
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The excellent (Serbian) thread by @srdjancvijic reminded me about this long post of mine. Serbia today looks like a society where a lot of things depend on the state, and the treatment you get from the state depends in turn on your attitude to (or membership in) the ruling party.
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Marko Prelec retweeted
1/ Ima nešto o delu SNS glasača šta tek nedavno počeo da razumem. Mnogi glasaju za SNS jer su pošteni. Ne vole SNS. Ne veruju Vučiću. Znaju za njihovu korupciju i lopovluk. Ipak kažu: „Moramo za njih.“ Zašto? 🧵
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He’s not wrong!
The structural reason why the Bosnian election campaign has felt so stilted this year is because every major political concept in the country - including Dodik’s secessionism - is exhausted. No one has the capacity to realize their top-line aims. But they also lack the courage to compromise or to hand over the reins to new generations. In sum, a categorical lack of vision and courage as the defining quality of an entire political culture. That would be frustrating at the best of times but especially given the state of regional and world politics, it’s a devastating signal to Bosnian voters. They’re being literally abandoned by their leaders. I make no partisan predictions but if turnout cracks 50% it will be a minor miracle.
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RT @ZovkoEU: Na Nacionalni dan borbe protiv nasilja nad ženama prisjećamo se triju žena ubijenih 22. rujna 1999. na Općinskom sudu u Zagreb…
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Very good and important observation! Not a new problem but unquestionably far worse now.
Three Americans spoke on the Hague judgment this week. One spoke for the United States. He was the one nobody quoted. There is now a secondary market in American authority in the Balkans. Ardit Rada asks whether Washington knows who is running it. by @arditrada @USEmbassyTirana @USEmbassySJJ @USEmbassySerbia @USEmbPristina tiranaexaminer.com/do-we-sti…
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Have candidates with 5/6 discourage votes in a straw poll nonetheless been elected SG? I ask you @RichardGowan1
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Marko Prelec retweeted
Actually the BHRC report was flimsy, didn’t take into account publicly known facts and reporting & instead went on a lot of what seemed like it was told by the Ombudsman. I did a breakdown here: bronwynjones.substack.com/p/… and btw I have worked at ICTY on Kosovo.
Replying to @XhorxhinaB
After the BHRC report was cited at Balkan Insight, the court had issues a statement denying the claims. The report has very strong claims of misconduct. The defence has often made similar appeals, they have all been refused. Read more about it here: balkaninsight.com/2026/05/12…
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A lot of the Kosovo commentary on the Specialist Chambers judgment reminds me of Croatian reactions to ICTY cases about "our generals" and besmirching the Homeland War. 1/6
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Though to be fair I think international justice has some responsibility too, because it used joint criminal enterprise too expansively, and unnecessarily mixed the ('clean') ends with the criminal means used to reach them. 5/6
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Kosovo's right to independence, like Croatia's, isn't and can never be in the dock. Acting like it is just makes us look bad. END
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