China is lashing out at the new conservative Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi’s statements about the Japanese military being able to come to Taiwan’s aid in case of a Chinese invasion attempt because US-Japanese-Taiwanese cooperation is crucial for defending the First Island Chain.
The line of containment extends from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Borneo.
This chain forms the primary barrier restricting the Chinese Navy’s access to the western Pacific.
Control of Taiwan would allow the Chinese Navy (PLAN) to bypass the chokepoints that U.S. and allied forces currently dominate (Miyako Strait, Bashi Channel, Luzon Strait), effectively breaking the First Island Chain and turning the East and South China Seas into zones of Chinese maritime dominance.
The concept of the “island chains” was first articulated in 1951 by U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles during the negotiations for the San Francisco Peace Treaty with Japan.
Dulles described the arc of islands stretching from the Aleutians to Southeast Asia as a strategic “offshore island chain” that the United States and its allies would organize and defend to contain the Soviet Union and Communist China.
The framework was subsequently embedded in the 1951 U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, the 1954 Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty (Manila Pact, and related policy documents of the early Cold War period.
If China would be able to break through the First Island Chain they would run into another with Guam as its strongpoint.
The Second Island Chain runs approximately from central Japan through Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Palau to western New Guinea.
It serves as the secondary line of defense and hosts major U.S. power-projection bases, particularly on Guam.
By holding the Second Island Chain, the U.S. would still be able to compete with the Chinese Navy in the western Pacific.
However, The Third Island Chain is all about being able to protect North America from a Chinese invasion of the PLAN would grow significantly in size in the future.
It centers on the Hawaii and extends through Midway Atoll and U.S. territories in the central Pacific.
If the PLAN breaks through the First Island Chain, it gains freedom of maneuver in the Philippine Sea, places the Second Island Chain under persistent anti-access/area-denial pressure, disrupts reinforcement of Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and ultimately threatens U.S. naval predominance across the Pacific.
Contemporary U.S. policy documents, including the 2022 National Defense Strategy and the Taiwan Relations Act, continue to treat Taiwan’s position in the First Island Chain as a core strategic interest.
However, in order to be able to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion or blockade, U.S. bases in Japan as well as direct aid in battle by Japan would be crucial.
This is why the U.S. has been sending signals for many years now that they wound want to see a much larger Japanese military force, including its Navy. With the new PM, Japan could be about to speed up that process that started with PM Shinzo Abe more than 10 years ago.
Sanae Takaichi has positioned herself as a “China Realist” and has made it clear that Japan won’t back down from a fight if Chinese aggression in the western Pacific will threaten Japan’s national security.