Had an interesting conversation with an investor yest'd.
She was convinced that middleman (sportsbook) in sports trading will die.
However her concern was "why sportsbook will not be the eventual winner once they enter prediction markets? They have distribution, sector understanding, and deep pockets."
I earnestly believe what she missed was the powerful idea of "founder product fit", the DNA that shapes winners.
Sportsbook DNA is sports pricing, they make money from user's losses. The whole design is built with opaque dark practices to make users lose without realising.
And hence it'll be tough for them to do a U turn and built a transparent exchange...needs a very different mindset. Not to mention the risk of cannibalising their own cash cow, which will never let them pivot and go all-in.
That's the moat of new startups like PRED or Novig or other prediction markets.