With the blowout in US yields and the US$* — a regression model says Gold should be much lower. But its actual "debasement premium" is ~$840/oz, well below the post-2022 average and near the post-2024-election floor. If you think this rates/US$ move has overextended - and both Williams and Jeffersons comments insinuate that - Gold's in the buy-zone right here. *using DXY & Real 10yr US yields (Nominal US 10year yields – US 10yr BreakEvens) as of Sept 27th

Golds navigating some real headwinds with higher oil/rates/US$ but we discuss that China & ETFs continue to buy as the l/t debasement/dedollarization/diversification themes remain in tact. Great conversation with @daniburgz @BloombergTV bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

Pick your poison for lower metals: higher US$, higher Oil (Iran/GCC Hormuz talks postponed indefinitely + Saudi shutting the East-West pipeline), inflation fears reviving Fed hike odds, AI-slowdown demand-destruction risk for Base/PGMs/Silver, and US tariff uncertainty on top. The model-implied Gold price is $3,970 given mkt pricing 2 Fed hikes within 6mo. Weds hike is fully priced with focus on the SEP dots & Warsh's presser, which carry more weight than the hike itself to pressure test whether this is a new hiking cycle Technically: 50 DMA sits ~$4,270. A new downtrend line has formed off the $4,700 post-FX/bond-intervention peak — echoes the Q1 ATH downtrend that compressed price into the ~$4K base, this time base support is ~$4,300, signaling persistent CTA selling. That downtrend break on the JPY intervention trigger was worth a $700 rerating.

"I am the House" said just before they announce their Treasury buyback program today. A larger Treasury buyback program (>$4bn) will put long-term bonds back in focus & help contain elevated yields. Signs of MORE FX & Bond intervention (vs market expectations) just keep lifting the Gold floor.

@MBazilian has always been a forward thinker when it comes to critical minerals. As Director of the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines, he brings decades of experience understanding the critical link between mineral supply chains and national security. I highly recommend reading their incredibly well-written piece on the minerals and metals required to power the AI buildout. The implications for critical mineral demand are enormous.

= Gold bottom

Bond Bottom 🥹💪

Thanks to the guys at @CNBCFastMoney to discuss Golds bullish outlook 🙌 cnb.cx/4wMH1LG

Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally. "I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left." "Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination." "Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets." "If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit." wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond…

The US unveiled sanctions against more than 60 entities, focusing on five of Iran’s “most vital lifelines,” including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. A little circular... Todays announcement is acknowledgement of the existence of a parallel gold economy (which already exists ) --> cut off illicit Gold --> revalue legit US Gold --> pay for UST buybacks I duno... but what was fringe is becoming the norm....

Silver's stuck, not starved. Gold/Silver ratio slowly lifting off depressed sub-50 levels all year; Silver looks underpriced vs what the $ has done recently --it should've reacted with more upside by now. It doesn't feel like a lack of buying, but a wall of supply (base metal related hedging bleeding through?) — $70 is sticky. If Gold is NOT mispriced, what actually rerates Silver higher besides just grinding through $70 resistance??

Bond buyback = Precious Metals comeback

Gold was $4050 when Japan (and the US) intervened in the currency market (JPY) end-July. Gold was $4350 when US Treasury announced boosted debt buybacks today New higher floors after another major financial repression move "Markets Under Manipulation" pic ht @agnostoxxx

Digital gold, copper and uranium: prospectors stake bets on metals-crypto fusion ft.com/content/de7ded5c-23d4… via @ft

Notable strength in Gold when major headwinds persisted all day 1) JPY has erased half of its intervention gains / $ strength 2) Bitcoin taking a hit 3) Oil is bid on dim Iran hopes 4) Higher real yields First time in a v long time Gold is trading with oil as a geopolitical haven

Major investment by the US Gov't into Mining and Minerals. Hybrid of what the Chinese state owned businesses have done for years, out of necessity. whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2…

RT @chigrl: China’s Central Bank Adds 20 Tons to Gold Reserves in July China’s central bank ramped up additions to its gold reserves last…