i go live at 8:30a est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket
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my full interview with @ThinkingUSD: what happened to Leopold Aschenbrenner
1:18 hedge fund leverage 101
3:18 the Leopold thesis
7:39 Ken the Grim Reaper
11:31 greatest trader ever ?
15:37 how a margin call works
23:53 Citadel FUDs the market
27:11 leverage is the killer
35:33 who's left to buy ?
40:00 show me the money
42:38 why short HYPE?
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Kel says even the biggest Hyperliquid bulls buying at 2am on Thanksgiving still underestimated where $HYPE ended up
"I just think that we human beings systematically underestimate exponential growth over time and compounding growth over time."
"I'm taking a break from whatever you do on Thanksgiving night at 2am to get on my laptop and buy a coin."
"And people were dramatically bullish, but still underestimated. 99% of the people I know still underestimated."
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Kel reveals why buying a new Rolex from a single trade proves you are biologically missing out on exponential wealth.
"We are biologically programmed to think linearly, meaning our psychology has absolutely no concept of exponential growth."
"You can make crazy sums of money catching a single move and buying the new Rolex, but who actually made the most money?"
"It is not the guy who was short at 30 and took profit at 20."
"The guy who built the most wealth found as much cash as he could and continually bought over and over again because the exponential right tail of the outcome is always undervalued."
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threadguy retweeted
Threadguy reveals 165 homes in Sanfrancisco sold for over $5,000,000 in the past 6 months
“There is an extreme wealth generation event that has just happened and is in the process of happening amongst a very concentrated, small group of people”
“There’s been ungodly amounts of wealth generated from these AI labs. Figuring out what they’re gonna buy and how they’re gonna spend their money seems to be a pretty profitable thing to do”
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threadguy retweeted
@notthreadguy is THAT guy.
from getting his first taste of internet money at 16, flipping sneakers and learning markets through hypebeast culture.
to dropping out of college and building a career on X, writing long-form content on NFTs and crypto.
next thing you know, he’s in LA living with @Banks, hosting events, and running his own podcast featuring the likes of Andrew Tate himself.
now he’s onto his latest chapter, building his own media company @counterpartytv and streaming daily on all things markets.
plus... why traders are becoming the new celebrities, why everyone is a trader whether they realize it or not, the financialization of everything, and why creator-led finance media is taking over,
we sat down with Threadguy to talk about all of it.
new episode of The Cap Table out now ↓
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my full interview with @kelxyz_
1:11 welcomed to crypto by Iron Finance
2:25 the tech finally caught up
4:40 the edge is the crowd's bias
9:19 making it without leverage
13:23 everyone underestimated $HYPE
16:17 building the conviction to hold
18:00 the full $ZEC bullcase
30:37 onchain asset quality isn't there
41:11 betting on decentralized AI
58:58 alpha is hard to find
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smartest most talented guy i know and the dumbest human ever born are both building pokemon gatcha platforms
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MARKET OPEN: Robinhood Summit DESTROYS Onchain, SF Real Estate is MOONING, Is America an AI LAB? nitter.net/i/broadcasts/1mxPaZedB…
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threadguy retweeted
Threadguy’s YouTube views are up ~5x this year
YouTube is objectively the hardest platform to grow on
He’s done a great job of building a team and keeping his content educational vs ragebait zoomer content
Which will pay dividends in the future imo
Once he figures out short-form content it’s going to be lights out
Love to see it
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threadguy retweeted
my full interview with @blurr, co founder of @papertrade_xyz
0:46 origins of papertrade
3:46 how papertrade works
11:29 learning from broken launches
13:35 why build on HyperEVM?
10:04 no funding fees on a $20M position?
25:00 how $Paper emissions work
32:59 I love jez
35:24 onchain wizard with no socials
39:18 super dead, super rich, or supermax
42:36 Tether on a phone was a Godsend
48:21 breeding CryptoKitties for profit
54:01 farming Curve for 3 hours
57:23 crypto can't be a social movement
1:07:29 value of labor is tunneling
1:10:46 why Blurr is a doomer
1:21:35 the CryptoPunks trade
1:28:19 advice for kids chasing the dream
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blurr explains how a $13 million phish pushed his Aave right to the exact liquidation line.
"I got phished on a weird, novel transaction type fired with a signature."
"I was sat there watching the script math take my Aave deposit receipt exactly up to the line it could without liquidating me."
"The position was perfectly solvent, but one oracle drop meant the entire bunch was gone. It was a mad rush to unf*ck the position and get everything off the address to make it safe."
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Kel explains why every great investment will have periods of relative underperformance and if you can't accept that you'll never make one
"Every great investment will have periods of relative underperformance. If you can't accept that, then just accept you'll never make a great investment. Period. Once you know that, then you start searching for great investments and you size them appropriately."
"You have to have some part of the book where you say I'm not going to sell, I'm not going to actively manage this portion of this trade. Because if it really goes right, then this relatively smaller part of the book will expand dramatically because the upside is very large when you're trading in technology."
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LGW. PATRIOT
Threadguy explains why Lee Goon Wang full stacking $23,000,000 of Zcash is the most honest thing a trader can do
"I have come to deeply appreciate the art of the full stack. It's one of the most honest and fair ways to play. You've got $25M in Zcash, its the same thing as having 1% of a memecoin, you're going to mark a local top if you shove it all into this chart right now. You could go and start parsing out $1M clips but every one of those clips is affecting the chart. People know, they feel it and are tracking your wallet. And people front run you. There's something about the art of the full stack that is so Darwinian, so honest and raw."
"It's very primal. You will never get to see statues of warlords who clipped $1M at a time. It's the most honest raw thing you can do as a trader. Just stack it. You're going to lose 3-4% to slippage but make it easier for everybody involved. Mark the local top, let's get it over with."
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Threadguy says there’s two ways to trade ‘Always be selling’ or the ‘Full stack’
“You either are in the camp of always be selling, you’re clippy on the chart the whole way up”
“Or you’re Mando and OSF, you have 75 Bored Apes at $400,000 apiece and no idea when you’re going to exit. You see a spot, Machi Big Brother farming Blur, fills the book at top bid with $12,000,000 and you shove every dollar”
“Jesse Livermore speaks of this. There’s a level of size where you don’t sell where you want to, you sell where you can. There’s a window and it starts to close and you either take it or you don’t. If you don’t take it, you’re committed to three more months”
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Kel explains how Zcash went from a 10 year laughing stock to the next Bitcoin.
"Zcash is the biggest coin now, and every single person on Twitter is saying this is going to be the next Bitcoin."
"But if you actually thought about buying it a year ago, including myself, you would feel like an idiot."
"This has been the laughing stock coin for 10 years in crypto, totally irrelevant through the craziest bull and bear markets. Buying that really made you feel like an idiot, but that was a bias."
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Blurr on why on-chain edges stay hidden
“The edge exists entirely because no one else knows it exists.”
“As soon as anyone else knows about what you're doing, the entire game is hiding as you can, so no one can see it.”
“It does not surface itself very loudly. You have to go and find it specifically in the dark arts of on-chain.”
“There's a whole game there that's played.”
“This game has been evolving since time immemorial. It's not like that specific instance. It's just a new one. Something else will come along.”
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Blurr reveals how he got phished for $13,000,000 and scrambled to save the rest of his funds
“They got me eventually in the end. We live, we learn”
The stolen funds were a Maker position on Aave he'd borrowed against. The phishing script drained the position, right up to the liquidation line, leaving it technically solvent but one price tick away from getting wiped
Any dip in price and he'd lose more and he still didn't know exactly what he'd signed and has no way to be sure revoking would work
So he raced to make the position safe and pull everything he could off the compromised wallet, before he could even figure out what happened
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