The cycle low is in. Bitcoin just completed a two-month 20-SMA reclaim that, in every prior completed major cycle in this study, occurred only after the ultimate cycle low was already behind it. This week also gave us: • ETF churn, not exodus • Strategy capital redirection • A market repairing itself before the story caught up BIR #027 — THE CAPITAL CHANGED DIRECTION btcintelligencereport.com/la…

AIx — BIR’s weekly Bitcoin accumulation-intensity model — bought Bitcoin at a 4.61% lower average cost. This is not a backtest. For 26 published weeks, BIR issued a real-time Bitcoin accumulation directive before the outcome was known. Straight DCA bought $300 every week. AIx changed intensity with the opportunity — from $200 to $1,000 during this published window. The result so far: AIx $9,200 deployed 0.1378846 BTC Average cost: $66,722 Straight DCA $7,800 deployed 0.1115103 BTC Average cost: $69,949 AIx deployed 17.9% more capital, but accumulated 23.7% more Bitcoin — at a 4.61% lower acquisition cost. That is the point of the model. Keep accumulating. Change the intensity. The complete AIx Live Record: btcintelligencereport.com/ai…

You really have to give it to this guy. He's incapable of being embarrassed. 😆 That's a super power.

You can't 25bp an oil chokepoint. These are blunt, old world tools that are grossly out of date and extremely ineffective today.

Bitcoin became famous before it became mature. In my new essay, I explain why I believe we are still early, why its monetization is far from finished, and why its real competitive field is far bigger than most people think.

Bitcoin may already be 65 days into its next major bull-market ascent. The last three completed cycles took: 1,067 days 1,059 days 1,050 days Low to top. Seventeen days apart. Price changed by orders of magnitude. But the time it took hardly moved. If that clock is still running, the next major cycle top points to September 2029. I'm not calling three observations a law. But after 40 years in markets, this is far too tight for me to ignore. Full study in the latest Bitcoin Intelligence Report ↓ btcIntelligenceReport.com/la…

48 HOURS. That is how long I am leaving this door open. More than 500 people have already walked through it, since offering it. I made a decision after what happened this summer: This was not the moment to sell clarity. It was the moment to give it away. So I am giving you six months inside my Bitcoin Master Club. No payment. No credit card. No obligation. Six months to learn Bitcoin properly. To accumulate it intelligently. To protect it correctly. To understand the difference between Bitcoin and the companies built around it. And to do it beside me and a community of serious Bitcoiners who intend to get this right over the coming cycles. This is not open indefinitely. 48 hours remain. If you have been waiting for a reason to stop watching from the sidelines and start building—this is it. Walk with me. Act now! bitcoinolivervelez.com/rebui…

Most people price Bitcoin in dollars. Almost nobody prices gold in Bitcoin. That is a mistake. This chart shows something remarkable: Four times since 2011, gold had its run against Bitcoin. Four times, that run ended. And when it ended, Bitcoin took the baton and outran gold for two years or more. Now the fifth setup is forming. Will history repeat? I say yes and its two year plus run has just gotten started. I broke the full signal down in yesterday’s issue of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report. Read it here: btcintelligencereport.com/la…

Worth a couple of dirty fiat bucks if you're into reading. I promise. All books in English, Spanish and Portuguese. 🇺🇸 🇪🇸 🇧🇷 a.co/d/03uTksCb

Everyone knows what happens if you miss Bitcoin’s ten best days. Almost nobody asks what happens if you miss the ten worst. I ran both sides of the experiment. The answer changes the lesson.

Something rare just happened in Bitcoin. Look carefully at this chart. Four times in the period studied, Bitcoin clustered at or around its weekly 200-period moving average — the most important long-term price anchor I track — and then left it with force. Feb 2019: +18.5% Mar 2020: +20.7% Oct 2023: +21.3% Aug 2026: +19.6% This week is #4. I call this a 200WMA Surge. The weekly 200MA is where Bitcoin has historically given disciplined accumulators some of their greatest opportunities. The zone is where Bitcoin gives you the opportunity. The surge is when the train begins leaving the station. And the timing of this one matters. Just five days before the surge, with Bitcoin still beneath its weekly 200MA, the Bitcoin Intelligence Report issued its maximum accumulation directive: GENERATIONAL — $1,000/week. Then Bitcoin moved. We didn't predict the catalyst. We didn't need to. The opportunity came before the explanation. Issue 023 — WHAT THE BEAR WAS BUILDING — breaks down what just happened, what history says about these rare departures from Bitcoin's long-term anchor, and what disciplined accumulators should understand now. The new issue is out. Read Issue 023 free: BTCIntelligenceReport.com/la…

Last Sunday, with Bitcoin near $63,000 and fear still dominating the market, the Bitcoin Intelligence Report's AIx model moved to GENERATIONAL — $1,000/week. The next day I published: “Days to Decide, Years to Profit.” Not because I knew Bitcoin would rally this week. I didn't. The argument stated in the article was that the periods that feel worst in real time are often the periods in which the decisions carrying the greatest long-term consequences have to be made. Now Bitcoin has exploded higher. Maybe it keeps going. Maybe it gives some of this move back. That's not the lesson. The lesson is that the decision came before the relief. If you haven't read Days to Decide, Years to Profit, read it now. Not because Bitcoin went up. Because the next time the market gives periods like those, you'll want to understand what they're actually for.

Four days ago, Bitcoin settled the week at $63,024.30. The Bitcoin Intelligence Report gave its highest accumulation directive: GENERATIONAL BUY. $1,000 per week. Today, BITCOIN is trading above $72,500. And yesterday, more than $1 BILLION in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated in roughly one hour. Every liquidated short became a buyer. Not because he changed his mind. Not because he suddenly understood Bitcoin. Not because the price suddenly looked attractive. Because he had no choice. The market forced him to buy at prices thousands of dollars above where my framework was telling us to buy voluntarily four days earlier. That is the difference between discipline and reaction. The Bitcoin Intelligence Report does not forecast the next tick. It measures where Bitcoin sits against its long-term structure and tells me what that price requires of a disciplined holder. Last Sunday, with Bitcoin at $63,024, beneath its weekly 200-period moving average, the answer was unmistakable: BUY HEAVY. Not quietly. Not after confirmation. Not when the news improved. When the tape looked broken and the crowd was leaning the other way. Issue #022 is dated. It is public. It is free. Nothing in it was written after this move. Read what the framework said BEFORE Bitcoin moved. The directive changes again this Sunday. ↓ BTCIntelligenceReport.com/la…

Bitcoin gave buyers seven days this cycle. If you were waiting for confirmation, you spent them. I went back through every measurable Bitcoin cycle to see what happened to the people who bought when almost nobody wanted to. The record is extraordinary.

After several cycles, I came to believe that Bitcoin’s ugliest institutional failures tend to surface near one particular price level. So I tested it. We I back through 40 major failures and measured where Bitcoin was trading when each became public. The result was stronger than I expected. Balance-sheet failures clustered near Bitcoin’s weekly 200-period moving average — what I call "the anchor." Theft didn’t. A stolen key doesn’t care where Bitcoin trades. A leveraged balance sheet does. That distinction tells us something important about what tends to break when Bitcoin gets cheap — and why some of the worst headlines (the ones that make everyone nervous) have historically appeared after much of the decline had already happened. I unpack the study, the mechanism, and what I believe it means for where we are now in Issue #022 of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report. Read it free ⬇️ BTCIntelligenceReport.com/la…

If you think great opportunity comes to those who wait for every "i" to be dotted and every "t" to be crossed in a life-changing technology, you are not only sadly mistaken, you'll never seize opportunity. Never. The greatest opportunities, the greatest wins, go to those who are early. And yes, Bitcoin is still early. Self-custody is still early. Adoption is still early. Understanding is still early. BUT "early" is where opportunity lives. Listen to me explain this to my private Bitcoin club members in less than 8 minutes. If you find anything or value here, come join us. It's absolutely free to be a member over the next 6 months. We are positioning ourselves right now for where btc is likley to be one year from now: "HIGHER." Come walk with us. 👇🏽 bitcoinolivervelez.com/rebui…

I told you I was opening the doors. I want you to see what I'm opening them to. This is nine minutes from a private session with my Bitcoin Master Club. No polished presentation. No sales pitch. Just me talking to my Bitcoiners about what happened, what it taught me, and why losing Bitcoin has made me more convinced of self-custody — not less. I think many people are learning the wrong lesson from this incident. A manufacturer failed. Bitcoin did not. Self-custody did not. Ownership did not. Handing the keys back to someone else because one company failed is not greater security. It's surrendering the very thing Bitcoin made possible. So we're going deeper. Custody. Security. Ownership. Bitcoin. And how we rebuild correctly. This is what we do together inside the Bitcoin Master Club. For the next six months, I'm opening my community to everyone at no cost. If this conversation speaks to you, come walk with us. Let's rebuild together. bitcoinolivervelez.com/rebui…

Three weeks ago, I lost a material amount of Bitcoin. Since then, I've spent almost every day asking what failed, what we can learn, and how we rebuild stronger. I've decided I don't want to make that journey alone. So I'm opening the doors to my private Bitcoin Master Club. For six months. To everyone. At no cost. No credit card. No automatic renewal. No catch. If you lost Bitcoin, come rebuild with us. If this incident made you question self-custody, come learn with us. If you've been watching Bitcoin from the sidelines and want to understand it before taking the first step, come walk with us. And if you've owned Bitcoin for years but want to make sure what you've built is protected properly, the door is open to you too. This isn't the week to sell clarity. It's the week to give it away. Let's rebuild together. bitcoinolivervelez.com/rebui…

Almost everyone measures Bitcoin in dollars. I reversed the relationship. I priced the S&P 500 in Bitcoin. And I found something I had never seen before. Three times in fifteen years, this chart produced the same rare sequence: Three consecutive green four-month bars, each making a higher high. January 2015. December 2018. November 2022. Three occurrences. Three Bitcoin cycle bottoms—two to the day, one within eight days. A fourth sequence is forming now. The third bar has already exceeded the prior bar's high. It settles August 31. I have spent forty years reading markets, and this is one of those charts that changes the way you see what is happening. Not because it guarantees a bottom. It doesn't. But because when you stop measuring Bitcoin with dollars and make Bitcoin the measuring stick, the market tells you a different story. And this isn't the only measurement pointing in that direction. This week's Bitcoin Intelligence Report puts the pieces together. Issue 021 — THE TEST OF CONTROL The new issue is out now. Free, as always. ↓ btcintelligencereport.com/la…

What if the difficulty isn't the evidence of failure— What if it's the evidence of how early we still are? Every civilization-changing technology began by asking too much of its first believers. I think Bitcoin is no different. ↓