Open-source command reports! By @tomdoyo (& maybe @lukeblomm)
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I'll be using this account to publicly share the results of OpenCommand, a computer-vision based command tracker.
Ideas in mind:
- MLB command leaderboards
- Target maps
- Pitcher command trends
- Pitcher tactics changes
- Reply to this tweet if you have ideas!
Some news:
I decided to open source my command project. It's called OpenCommand.
This means anyone can see the code (and even the data)!
I hope this gives more people a chance to pursue and share cutting edge baseball research.
Anyways, here's how to measure command: 🧵
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Parker Messick had his 2nd worst command day of the year yesterday.
He dropped from 80th to 12th percentile command, walking 4 batters in 2.1 innings.
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3 things are true at the same time:
- Command is worth 1/3 Stuff
- Command stabilizes almost as fast as Stuff
- Adding Command on top of Stuff doesn't dramatically improve ERA prediction
Why? 🧵
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The problem is that command's influence is observable *conditional* on stuff. (Raw command is uncorrelated to ERA)
It's a huge survivorship bias (good stuff guys get away with bad command) - there's a negative correlation between stuff and command.
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As @pitchprofiler & others mentioned, maybe there's some "minimum command" to be a viable pitcher (throw enough strikes).
I managed to find *some* hockey stick going on but it looks like it's driven by K% dropping (not BB% going up disproportionately).
It's hard to show in MLB because these pitchers already proved they could throw strikes in the minors!
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For reference, going from worst stuff in the league to best is worth 3 ERA.
So, stuff is arguably 3x as important as command (at the MLB level)!
Going from worst command in the league to best is worth 1 ERA!
There's a strong correlation between xERA (unexplained by Stuff+) and command.
And it gets really interesting because some pitch types are way more dependent on command than others (see below)
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Going from worst command in the league to best is worth 1 ERA!
There's a strong correlation between xERA (unexplained by Stuff+) and command.
And it gets really interesting because some pitch types are way more dependent on command than others (see below)
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Fastballs are almost twice as command dependent as Breaking balls. Anyone have an idea why?
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OpenCommand might actually be the most accurate command tracker in the world.
It estimates intended targets with the lowest error!
(TL;DR at the end)
🧵
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TL;DR
Measurement errors increase avg estimated miss, so lower avg estimated miss is a good indicator for small measurement error.
OpenCommand's target estimation is about 4in (or less) away from true target each pitch.
This is among the best in baseball, despite lacking advanced scouting and situational adjustments.
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