Totally agree. My income/ businesses are highly correlated with markets/cycles. I just cant have everything collapse all at once and remain emotionally stable. So my retirement accounts are roughly: 30% L/S 30% all world 5% gold 10% long treasuries 10% tips 15% Tbills
VSG@ValueStockGeek
Sep 18
This is a reason I got into asset allocation. In the backtests, I could not assemble a portfolio of stocks that survived 2008-09 without massive losses. You need other assets for these things. Treasuries, in particular.
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What if the next financial crisis is the US Treasury long-term real rates exploding?
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Yeah that's the doomsday scenario. I'd like to think Gold rallies if people are reluctant to bid on treasuries. Hopefully Tbills keep it together. Not sure how to address that risk.
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If it's the US long-term real rates spiking, gold will get phucked. All the crowded long-short strategies, too. I don't have a good answer to the question how to prepare for that. But I've sure spent some time thinking about it.
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We're kind of in that environment right now. Apparently the answer is to buy Biotech
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That's how I'm reading it too, like the move has already largest happened already. Are long term real rates going to 6% or something? What's the highest they've been before outside of weird dislocations?
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Replying to @Tintincapital @ptuomov

Sep 18, 2026 · 6:53 PM UTC

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Replying to @Tintincapital @ptuomov
So you could frame it like we're 40% through the move. Overall I'm pleased with how I've held up through it so far. But I guess it also often gets crazier under the surface towards the end of the move...
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