Turning onchain data into growth insights | Pet projects: outputlayer/rwa_cli and @PredGraph | DMs open

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Wasn't active the last few days, still working on the cli for rwa trading/portfolio management. Added a few cool commands:
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Outputlayer retweeted
FINALLY found the "@FOMO MEV ATTACKER" 🚨 this is the guy destroying your FOMO entries: 0x44c0ba0b734d4b7705fcd07ddae9fbbc078d74dd They frontrun FOMO buyers actively... A new victim every minute!!! they switch addresses every other day. current one: 0xb49deec1a52eea46f3a6a158f8f9b155809b8c44 @seyong your users are being affected by these sandwich attacks every minute. FIX THIS ASAP.
Hey @fomo, @seyong and @RelayProtocol, check your team or partners: someone is front-running your users (sandwich attack) on the Robinhood chain, likely using private order info. Wallet: 0x44c0ba0b734d4b7705fcd07ddae9fbbc078d74dd Contract (since Sep 24): 0x68a04a63fd1d8eabf167ef48ed0a0ef06c2374d9 Solver affected: 0xccc88a9d1b4ed6b0eaba998850414b24f1c315be Impact on your users: ~$14k+ in the first day Sandwich attacks: 328 Typical lead over your solver: 1–4 blocks Solver volume hit: ~$412k
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Hey @fomo, @seyong and @RelayProtocol, check your team or partners: someone is front-running your users (sandwich attack) on the Robinhood chain, likely using private order info. Wallet: 0x44c0ba0b734d4b7705fcd07ddae9fbbc078d74dd Contract (since Sep 24): 0x68a04a63fd1d8eabf167ef48ed0a0ef06c2374d9 Solver affected: 0xccc88a9d1b4ed6b0eaba998850414b24f1c315be Impact on your users: ~$14k+ in the first day Sandwich attacks: 328 Typical lead over your solver: 1–4 blocks Solver volume hit: ~$412k
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more from the last seconds:
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Outputlayer retweeted
Finally got around to reading this. Great stuff. As a person that got stuck in morpho markets one too many times, maybe this trick can be used to track borrowers and once they pay back their loans we can insta withdraw right after them in the same block (is this called backrun?). Or perhaps if a lender withdraws a bit too much from the pool (but not completely), we can still make it out partially depending on risk/comfort levels. Front running a whale, market decimating withdraw, is a bit more complex (mempool monitoring and gas war I think. Not sure how private mempool complicates this). I guess this use case is more plebian than monitoring the mempool. I don't think I have the resource to pull that off.
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Since writing is good for the brain, especially when it is original and done without ai, I need to try to develop this habit and reinforce it by using incentives, e.g. engagement with my articles
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lol turns out pretty fun even if play by biological rules, since it's Friday evening, made a nightclub for them to chill
Knowledge, like always killing all fun, fruit fly can’t see and remember full picture to take action, only ~0.5% of that input reaches the mushroom body. And it learns best through the smell channel, which has roughly 30× more input synapses to the mushroom body than the visual channel. Only the Kenyon cell → MBON synapses. In a live fly, these and only these are plastic during learning, and they are can have ~100 associations
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Knowledge, like always killing all fun, fruit fly can’t see and remember full picture to take action, only ~0.5% of that input reaches the mushroom body. And it learns best through the smell channel, which has roughly 30× more input synapses to the mushroom body than the visual channel. Only the Kenyon cell → MBON synapses. In a live fly, these and only these are plastic during learning, and they are can have ~100 associations
We gave a fly $100 to trade on Polymarket. It already called today’s pump in the "25 bps increase" on Fed Decision polymarket. Every second, its next move is decided by 166,700 neurons.
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Just dug a bit deeper to see what the actual impact of this “local” meta really is. Dashboard coming soon.
Robinhood memecoins <> Stock Tokens ELI5 >> The tokenized stock = base asset >> The memecoin = a speculative wrapper that routes demand through it 1. How Robinhood tokenized stocks actually work • Stock Tokens (e.g. $NVDA or $HIMS) are ERC-20s issued by Robinhood Assets • They give economic exposure to the real NYSE stock but are legally debt securities, not shares • You do not own HIMS stock, have no voting rights, and cannot redeem for the actual shares yourself 2. How stock tokens are minted • Only Authorized Participants (KYB-onboarded partner market makers) can mint or burn tokens directly with the issuer • Regular users can only buy and sell existing tokens on secondary venues: Uniswap AMMs, fomo app • The market maker buys the real shares in the traditional market (NYSE hours only) • They then request the issuer to mint the matching number of on-chain tokens (1 token ≈ 1 share) • The new tokens are sent to the MM’s wallet and sold into on-chain pools (HIMS/USDG, HIMS/BONER, etc.) to keep the token price close to the real stock 3. Float squeeze • Because minting requires buying the actual shares on the stock market, it can only happen while the stock market is open • During market close / weekends the on-chain float is frozen (whatever tokens already exist is the entire supply until market opens) • MMs decide when to mint by watching the on-chain HIMS.RH x USDG pool versus the NYSE price • If the token trades at a meaningful premium, they mint and sell. If it trades at a discount they can buy tokens and burn them • Off-hours they cannot do this, so premiums can balloon (this was what happened ytd with HIMS and AMC) 4. How a memecoin paired with the tokenized stock works (BONER <> HIMS) • When someone buys $BONER, most sizeable buys route USDG → HIMS.RH pool first, then HIMS.RH → BONER pool • Important: every net buy of BONER = creates a buy of tokenized HIMS • Those HIMS tokens get locked inside the BONER/HIMS LP as the other side of the pair. The circulating on-chain float of HIMS shrinks • BONER’s dollar price is (BONER per HIMS token) × (current HIMS.RH dollar price) • If HIMS.RH is trading at a huge premium, BONER’s “market cap” is inflated by that phantom premium 5. Off-hours / weekend events (what happened with both AMC and HIMS) • Demand for the memecoin keeps sucking HIMS tokens into the LP • The remaining HIMS/USDG pool becomes extremely thin. • Tokenized HIMS price opens far above the Friday NYSE close because nobody can mint new tokens (the memecoins like BONER looked like it is pumping hard in dollar terms) • Then when the market re-opens, partner MMs buy real HIMS shares, mint fresh tokens, and dump them into the on-chain pools (which obv the premium will collapse) • BONER holders lose in USD terms even if the BONER/HIMS ratio itself stays strong or keeps rising • LP providers can theoretically pull liq and sell the HIMS tokens to help close the premium, but the dominant new-supply source is still the authorized MMs 6. What every memecoin<>stock token’s plans are • Key goal is to squeeze the shorts on the token pairing • Degens buy memecoin → the pool “sucks” the tokenised stock tokens out of circulation and locks them as LP • Persistent demand for the memecoin forces MMs to keep minting more tokenised stock tokens during market hours • Each mint corresponds to Robinhood (or its partners) buying and vaulting a real stock • Some stocks have large short interest and over time the growing pile of vaulted/on-chain tokens is supposed to tighten the real-world float available to shorts 7. Important to note • All the on-chain stock supply is tiny compared with the actual stock • Minting currently has negligible impact on the real stock price or short squeeze dynamics unless the memecoin demand grows insanely large
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Share of each issuer's tokenized equity supply actually posted as loan collateral: Backed Assets (xStocks) - 6% BTech (Binance) - 1.23% Coinbase - 0.03% Ondo - 0.01% Robinhood - 0.01% Swarm < 0.01% Data: @AlliumLabs
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Oh, I’m trying to answer the question of how much liquidity is available to borrow, and each protocol has its own mechanics: min(free collateral cap × LTV, free borrow cap, collateral × LTV − debt, loan reserve liquidity).
Wondering about supply and demand for tokenized stocks in lending protocols. Right now, there are only 37 lending protocols (>$1m TVL) and just 6 of them accept tokenized stocks as collateral: @kamino @JupiterExchange @lista_dao @VenusProtocol @eulerfinance @Morpho (@aave isn’t there yet) Feels like we’re still very early.
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Wondering about supply and demand for tokenized stocks in lending protocols. Right now, there are only 37 lending protocols (>$1m TVL) and just 6 of them accept tokenized stocks as collateral: @kamino @JupiterExchange @lista_dao @VenusProtocol @eulerfinance @Morpho (@aave isn’t there yet) Feels like we’re still very early.
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I'm not trying to FUD, just got a little tilted. Hope the team comes back soon with some info and opens redemptions. Everything looks weird, but not necessarily bad, even with the situation on Morpho.
Same day, different protocol (@Neutrl) And an answer to why TVL looks so bearish for most protocols nowadays. Quick math: let’s count the risk-free rate as ~3.9%. The implemented APY for my PT was ~6%, so the risk premium was around 2.1%. Even if we count this premium as the % chance of getting hit by a left-tail risk, it’s still ~1 in 50. Now the question is: how many hacks/rugs have we had across 100 protocols over the last few months?
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Same day, different protocol (@Neutrl) And an answer to why TVL looks so bearish for most protocols nowadays. Quick math: let’s count the risk-free rate as ~3.9%. The implemented APY for my PT was ~6%, so the risk premium was around 2.1%. Even if we count this premium as the % chance of getting hit by a left-tail risk, it’s still ~1 in 50. Now the question is: how many hacks/rugs have we had across 100 protocols over the last few months?
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Took me ~4 hours. Here it is Upfront: my main focus was on the project's token, especially its buy pressure and long-term strength. Some insights: 1. A detailed analysis of every current and former holder, including the net USD extracted from the token by each wallet 2. Flow into the token from new vs returning accounts, plus the hourly % of bets that actually convert into token buying 3. Contribution to the token by cohort (6h) and more cc @Rhynotic
Seeing a lot of posts about ethereum:0xa0df17b5ac76ababa36e1450e2cbcd18a620c845 lately. I farmed it in v1 personally. I'll try to build analytics around buy pressure and the long-term strength of the project's token to give the community better insights
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Seeing a lot of posts about ethereum:0xa0df17b5ac76ababa36e1450e2cbcd18a620c845 lately. I farmed it in v1 personally. I'll try to build analytics around buy pressure and the long-term strength of the project's token to give the community better insights
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this
sudo pmset -a disablesleep 1
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Wasn't active the last few days, still working on the cli for rwa trading/portfolio management. Added a few cool commands:
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video was made using VHS (Charm)
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