Ahh yes, $LTR / $LTR.ax reporting time.. an annual reminder of the corporate kumbaya as brokers/CEOs came to the aid of their struggling buddy..
If KV is eternally ramping up, then we never have to draw any 'meaningful conclusions' right?
Always DYOR folks.. it's a big club and you ain't in it
Bump..🙈🤮
Inevitable CR @ $LTR; writing was on the wall, only potential short-term savior was lith price
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Some good results from $Var.ol overnight..
Made ~US$2b in post-tax cash since end of Q1. That's on 68mmboe of production (~30% gas).. implies a near $30/boe margin. As such, have increased their dividend, and guide to further increases.
4Q should be a stonker, given slight increases to production & higher ASP across the board (headline + lag)..
But the party might be coming to an end 😔 as @ironic_capital keeps warning me, the tax-man is coming for the tendies..
Still liking North Sea cohort.. $HBR.l Harbour trades a smidge under £3/sh (£4.5b / US$6.0b)
* 2026 guide to 30% FCF yield and 13% SH return, assumptions allow for upside surprise here..
* Indebted yes (~50/50), but producing and flowing cash.. with no ambiguity about where it's headed (financiers, debt & equity)
* Large 500kboe/d production base, w. ~70% going to the energy-challenged europoors
* Buying back shares daily.. able to buy directly from BASF, reducing overhang
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Headline production at $HBR.l is ~500kboe/d, almost identical to Woodside/WDS as of their 3Q report this morning.. one trades at US$52b EV, the other at US$11b EV..
Here's some other peers in the loose 400-600kboe/d bracket for comparison:
(LSE-listed + O&G = double-hated.. but hefty valuation disconnect to other similar sized producers)
Still liking North Sea cohort.. $HBR.l Harbour trades a smidge under £3/sh (£4.5b / US$6.0b)
* 2026 guide to 30% FCF yield and 13% SH return, assumptions allow for upside surprise here..
* Indebted yes (~50/50), but producing and flowing cash.. with no ambiguity about where it's headed (financiers, debt & equity)
* Large 500kboe/d production base, w. ~70% going to the energy-challenged europoors
* Buying back shares daily.. able to buy directly from BASF, reducing overhang
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Still liking North Sea cohort.. $HBR.l Harbour trades a smidge under £3/sh (£4.5b / US$6.0b)
* 2026 guide to 30% FCF yield and 13% SH return, assumptions allow for upside surprise here..
* Indebted yes (~50/50), but producing and flowing cash.. with no ambiguity about where it's headed (financiers, debt & equity)
* Large 500kboe/d production base, w. ~70% going to the energy-challenged europoors
* Buying back shares daily.. able to buy directly from BASF, reducing overhang
Journeying across the Atlantic.. and North Sea oil & gas producers aren't getting much love either. At $90/bbl Brent:
$EQNR: ~760mmboe (2081mboe/d) at ~$60/boe cash operating margin
* Implies ~$45b EBITDA at $90b MC / $110m EV
$AKRBP.ol: ~140mmboe (385mboe/d) at ~$75/boe cash operating margin
* Implies ~$10b EBITDA at $22b MC / $28b EV
$VAR.ol: ~146mmboe (400mboe/d) at ~$70/boe cash operating margin
* Implies ~$10b EBITDA at $11b MC / $16b EV
$HBR.l: ~180mmboe (490mboe/d) at ~$50/boe cash operating margin
* Implies ~$9b EBITDA at $6b MC / $13b EV
Yes, each will lose a chunk of this converting to FCF... with varying degrees of capex, decommissioning costs, tax... but this is trimming fat off a healthy starting margin.
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Familiarising myself with $PC2.ax - I spy a new district consolidation play at Pine Creek (NT), to add the the Mt Isa & Cobar watchlists..
Fair bit of gold sitting there, presume more if there was an incentive to look for it.. Tough operating conditions & processing complexity but who's got the balls?
If/when NST gets away from them... does Agnico follow their own playbook and pull a Finland 2.0.? Needs more drilling but seems a valid comp..
Hanking (Chinese.. HK-listed) busy building their own district...
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More bush-math:
* AEM has a 2.4mtpa plant, likely requires POX/BiOX upgrades... lets say they do this + expand capacity to 4mtpa... let's call this $300m at a thumbsuck
* Could you buy PC2, Bacchus, Patronus (only NT) for $400m..? Let's say $500m..
* To get to a nice round $1b, lets say $200m on future-proofed infrastructure + exploration + contingencies
A$1b spend.. resulting in a consolidated district (shared with China, of course) with exploration upside and enduring infrastructure. Yes double-refractory, but so is Finland, and it's Agnico..
A$1b for 4mtpa @ 2g/t = ~250kozpa.. can question whether it belongs in a major but certainly feels more accretive on an EV/pdn basis than spending $40b for 1.6Mozpa ($25/oz vs $4/oz)
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overjumped retweeted
Forward fiscal projections tend to be vapourware, whoever is in office. The latest PREFU numbers look a bit better, with no changes in policy, than those at BEFU time, but the promise 3yrs ago was that we'd be in operating surplus by now.
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overjumped retweeted
I recently took a look at Nickel Industries, $NIC.AX on the ASX.
It’s an ASX200 vertically integrated Nickel producer in Indonesia, inverting from a heavy investment and dilution phase to a cashflowing phase.
Deeply hated by the market for its degenerate raise history, profligate spending sprees on new assets, a terrible juristiction producing one of the most washed out and hated commodities... Nickel.
At ~$0.80 it's priced around 3x EV/EBITDA '28 and seems overly punished.
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As an aside, on my brief crusade beyond real assets I thought that $PMV.ax looked interesting..
Trades at = $11.81/sh
* Owns ~25% of Breville (at $4.4b MC) = $6.90/sh.
* Cash of $391m = $2.46/sh.
* Melbourne HO + DC, held at hist. written down value of combined $67m... let's call this $100m = $0.63/sh.
Total = $10.00/sh.
Paying $1.81/sh. for Smiggle/Peter Alexander which generated EBITDA of $1.81/sh. in FY26 🤔
Risks at a glance:
* 60% of the value relies on $BRG.ax holding its value (ie > 30x) & tricky to offload stake regardless..
* Elevated payables, perhaps to normalise (decr. cash)
* Probs requires an exit to realise value... difficult unless LT Chair (who owns ~40%) wants that outcome..
ps. I know f-all so look into it yourself, I plan to..
Some recent analysis on select retailers across AU/NZ, for anyone who is curious.
Been buying $WHS.nz, but difficult to invest in NZX companies as a non-resi.. so haven't really spoken much about this here (did do a s/s write-up if curious).
They report tomorrow, which is why I made this... rather than wasting away on my hard drive, figured it may be helpful or of interest to others also 🫡🫡
$KMD.ax / $JBH.ax / $KGN.ax / $HVN.ax / $SUL.ax / $CCX.ax / $MYR.ax / $PMV.ax / $ADH.ax
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Some recent analysis on select retailers across AU/NZ, for anyone who is curious.
Been buying $WHS.nz, but difficult to invest in NZX companies as a non-resi.. so haven't really spoken much about this here (did do a s/s write-up if curious).
They report tomorrow, which is why I made this... rather than wasting away on my hard drive, figured it may be helpful or of interest to others also 🫡🫡
$KMD.ax / $JBH.ax / $KGN.ax / $HVN.ax / $SUL.ax / $CCX.ax / $MYR.ax / $PMV.ax / $ADH.ax
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What a disaster, here's my read-through from $MEK.ax raise announcement as to how their quarter has gone..
Likely milling lower grades than last quarter, implying UG ramp up is not going swimmingly.. Still losing money, but interested what portion is capex (not that it changes too much).
All in all, surprised they managed to pull of a $40m raise. Would love to know the buyers + tranche terms and what the deal is there
I guess the hesitation was well placed.. Can't imagine the market will be clamouring to send $MEK.ax more donations, so could be a messy raise..
Will they dangle the Mt Holland cherry (subtext for me if so = Murchison doomed).. will they provide a production update... Curious to see what happens and whether there's any positives, so will continue to follow, but not looking great for holders..
@ShitValueFund strikes again🫡🫡
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I guess the hesitation was well placed.. Can't imagine the market will be clamouring to send $MEK.ax more donations, so could be a messy raise..
Will they dangle the Mt Holland cherry (subtext for me if so = Murchison doomed).. will they provide a production update... Curious to see what happens and whether there's any positives, so will continue to follow, but not looking great for holders..
@ShitValueFund strikes again🫡🫡
$MEK.ax / Long-form piece I wrote on Meeka in early-August, following the thread below, but didn't get to post before some things came up..
overjumped.substack.com/p/me…
Wanted to elaborate without the confines of character limits. Ended up writing far too many words for something I don't own… such is life of a DD nerd I guess.
This is very high-risk, but I can see a pathway to:
* In FY27, averaging ~A$250/t margins on ~600ktpa ($150m)
* In FY28, averaging ~A$350/t margins on ~600ktpa ($210m)
BUT, this relies on:
* Ramping up Turnberry without a hitch
* Reaching required mining rates at Andy Well w/o sacrificing grade
* Controlling mining costs within a reasonable range
There's been some developments since I originally wrote this.. gold px, share px, Mt Holland acq. As a result, I was deliberating whether to still post this or not... I figure it may be useful to some of you, so have at it folks 💙
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Two years since first posting this and the NZ Energy "Strategy" remains to wing it...
Two years + an ongoing energy crisis... yet your NZ Politicians are arguing over nationalising supermarkets 🤦♂️🤡
Just know... when 'cost of living' (inflation) continues to hit our little island... energy security/availability will be more of a cause than supermarket price gouging.
With 6 business days remaining in 2024, where is the ‘New Zealand Energy Strategy’? 🧐
We have no ‘strategy’ on the trajectory and repercussions of getting from (a) to (b) - yet politicians and corporates blindly pursue this agenda at the detriment of NZ citizens 🤷♂️ #nzpol #nz
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Yes this is a rant, because I'm somewhat in disbelief. I know that articulating a strategy means very little in itself.. but to see this go unaddressed & unedited given this years' events is mind-boggling...
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$MOON $ELMT $EQR Blue Moon, Elmet, and EQ Resources team up on $150-175M Springer Tungsten Complex deal in Nevada
— Elmet putting in ~$150M total, plus $25M standby with EQ
— New JV owns the APT plant, Elmet 70%, Blue Moon 20%, EQ 10%
— Elmet also getting a board seat at Blue Moon
— Mine/mill targeting Q4 2027 restart, APT plant 2H 2028
— Part of the $450M DoW tungsten initiative announced same day
Whole tungsten supply chain getting rebuilt domestically piece by piece
Not financial advice.
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overjumped retweeted
$SBM.AX 😍 75cps cash + 25cps royalty + franking + XXcps on Nova Scotia (which could be upward of A$1.50/sh pending permitting outcome).. 🔥🔥
BOOM. A key risk to these "cash boxes" is mgmt blowing the cash on something stupid and empire building. This is not the case here.. mgmt is actively trying to monetise Assets and maximise shareholder returns... $SBM.AX
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My interpretation of Endura's announcement yesterday: "I promise we've only just become fully funded"...
Hopefully heading straight to the coffers of $FZR.ax shareholders 🙏🤞
Fitzroy River / $FZR.ax getting interesting..
Trades at A$20m, with courts to determine either:
(1) Royalty buy-out invalid: ~A$12m/yr
*Retains royalty over near-production project, set to produce 60kozpa over 10yrs (w. upside)
*3% for first 1m ounces, 1.5% thereafter
(2) Royalty buy-out valid: A$12m cash to bank
My take is that Endura missed the boat on the buy-out... (which would be a massive blunder by a fairly reputable team...)
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Alternate/related theory: Endura raising to try buyout $FZR.ax via RTO.. would eliminate the royalty issue, solve the listing dilemma, and might recoup some dollars via monetisation of remaining royalty portfolio
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