Zurich, Switzerland
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Dollar weakness was THE most consensus view of the Street. Virtually everyone held it, and most still do, but at least MS is throwing in the towel here.
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This is all that matters to SNB currently.
Swiss inflation, conditional on SNB remaining at 0%, is forecasted to be below 1% by end 2028.
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One of the things that has surprised me most in recent weeks is how absolutely dead FX vol is, given everything that's going on.
I guess nothing ever happens.
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Canadian STIR looks very cheap given the fundamental economic/inflation backdrop. Roughly 100bps of hikes are priced until June 27.
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An intellectually interesting exercise but... "response to credibility to a 20bps shock to central bank independence"?
Feels like a forced attempt to put numbers on something qualitative.
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What the rates reaction in Europe showed today is that we go from one policy mistake to another.
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The pace of improvement is absolutely
relentless. Wow.
Fast forward 1-2 years...
This model represents a step-function improvement on many benchmarks, and its training is ongoing.
Our internal model group arrived at the Navier–Stokes solution in 88 hours, using around 10,000 coordinating AI agents.
Throughout the effort, we maintained the strict safeguards—including monitoring and isolation—that we apply to all our frontier evaluations.
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One interesting way to look at the economics of the AI buildout is hyperscaler and mega-tech bond yields vs US Treasuries and the broader USD IG bond yield curve.
Data from Bloomberg
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Astra thoughts:
- Very good model for coding
- Surprisingly fast
- Drains usage more quickly than Sol, also on lower reasoning
- As is the case with other models, has some issues with lateral/creative thinking esp in research domains
Overall very happy with it
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Increasing sell side chatter about Fed going 50 in Sep or consecutive hikes in Sep and Oct and maybe another one in Dec.
Who knows, but for now it feels a bit like fever pitch to me.
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Interesting how STIR (sofr, euribor, even saron to some extent) always gets faded on every pop
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Obv no need to over interpret a 12-year old ad featuring Neymar, but...
I like the line "Run like you’re a crazy man chasing happiness". Applies to so many things in life.
piped.video/watch?v=QiAgzUyC…
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Great report on AI economics and visible token usage across firms from Frank Flight of Citadel Securities overnight.
A few points below.
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What is really interesting - though not surprising - is that firms that already know how to consume "intelligence" are responding most strongly as price falls. This means that the business gap between high-usage firms and low-usage firms should increase by a LOT.
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Anyway, I added few more thoughts to explain additional aspects of what this means in plain English in an article here: linkedin.com/pulse/falling-p…
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