The Fed say this labor market remains robust? Zero job growth YOY? They're blinder than a bad baseball umpire.

The only employment sectors with gains in last year were healthcare (gov spending) and construction (data centers). This is not a broad healthy job market

Dollar's demise is greatly exaggerated

If inflation were transitory this is exactly what you would expect the chart to look like. Or maybe it is.

the hawks are economically illiterate they've been screaming about inflation 2nd and 3rd order effects for 4 years. when is that actually going to happen? wage-price spiral inflation is ivory tower nonsense no one can demand higher wages just becuase grocery costs increased without actual labor market supply/demand imbalance. time to ignore the chicken littles

Hourly earnings growth is really softening.

Looks like a long term trend not a temp fluctuation related to Iran war cpi spike

true, but i think it was less about inflation or the fed and more about foreign reserve managers selling treasuries to raise dollars. They needed more dollars to buy higher priced oil and to buy their local currencies to try to stem depreciation. (didn't work) ex. Japan sold off massive foreiegn reserves the last few months attempting to defend the yen and obtain dollar funding

This cracks me up, becuase Nickyleaks blocked me ages ago for calling him a shill.

And raise when the labor market is this weak?

Is it really? Yoy real personal income growth is negative and job growth yoy is nil Where’s the economic strength?

Job growth has substantially deteriorated since 2021. This chart intentionally excludes recent months and Iran war months, which are subject to signficant restatements. If this trend continues, we should see more job losses in 2H.

Consider an insult from an idiot a compliment:

Fauci and Birx did destroy the country and Trump was 100% wrong to go along with their insane plan

12- month trimmed mean PCE inflation shows no signs of accelerating.

A reminder that roughly half of core CPI is shelter. The trend in shelter prices is quite clearly disinflationary (ie declining growth rate). Hard to have persistently stronger inflation with this housing back drop.

Does this look like a strong job market? You’re missing the forest for the trees

Labor force is plunging. The only reason unemployment rate has remained low is that nearly 1.5mm people have left the labor force. People stop looking for work when they become so discouraged by the lack of jobs

This labor report is terrible. The labor market is broken. If you adjusted unemployment for labor force dropouts we’d be at 6.2%

Powell is a fool. The labor market is already breaking. If you adjusted unemployment for labor force dropouts , we’d be at 6.2%

Trend is clear

The overall trend in the job market remains soft. Despite month to month noise it’s not hard to see that job growth has slowed very dramatically. I don’t know the future, but the present, is by no measure, a strong labor market.

In case youre tempted to fall for the social media hysteria about the strait of Hormuz here’s a chart of actual shipments

The Fed and the ECB are both going to be embarrassed by their sustained inflation nonsense rhetorics The rate markets are speaking loud and clear already.

5 year breakeven inflation rate is now below pre war levels. The rate markets are not buying the feds sustained inflation nonsense.

As an employer, the right answer to this question is it’s the hiring manager’s fault for selecting the wrong person. If someone doesn’t work out in first six months, they were the wrong person from day one Bad hire

Hours earnings growth rate is declining but job growth is accelerating? Somehow the lies aren’t adding up

Reel personal income less transfer payments is now strongly negative year over year. And in fact, the last three months annualized is close to -4%. Brutal

Not a recession call but are you concerned about real income less transfer payments going negative yoy ? If you look at it for last 3 months it annualizes to -3.6%.

Economists can’t see the real issue. Real private incomes have stalled out. Consumers are not getting ahead

A little context. Job growth is basically nil.

It makes perfect sense. Real income growth is tanking and this chart comes before oil price spike.

In an economy where real personal income growth is this weak, an oil price shock will lead to declining demand for other goods and services oil price shocks are not inflationary

After looking at the correlation , I think the possibility of narrower than historic spreads is pretty good. The products trade differently because of mortgage convexity and duration tied to payoffs. But it means that as rates come down and payoff velocity increases we could see a double boost of lower base rates and lower spreads.

Real personal income excluding transfer payments has been ZERO for the last 3 quarters. All the growth in real income was in the 1st quarter last year. The consumer is now at stall speed and based on the trajectory looks to be getting worse.

I don’t think there’s real evidence of sustained impact of spread from fed buying. It’s mostly tied to 10 year bond volatility .

This chart of working age population growth explains the economic growth , inflation, and rates well to me. In 1970s, high working age population growth, leads to high consumer demand growth, creates high inflation , leads to high nominal GDP growth and rising rates. All that Reverses course in the 1980s, lower pop growth, lowering demand growth, lowering inflation, lowering nominal GDP growth, lowering rates. Then working age pop growth remains very low from GFC to now (except illegal immigration blip), hence generally low and stable rates. Going forward working age population growth is almost zero, which is why I see rates eventually falling substantially.

Definitely not destroyed, but definitely much lower growth. This chart of working age population growth explains the economy well to me. In 1970s, High working age population growth, leads high consumer demand growth, creates high inflation , leads to high nominal GDP growth and rising rates. All that Reverses course in the 1980s., lower pop growth, lowering demand growth, lowering inflation, lowering nominal GDP growth, lowering rates. Then working age pop growth remains very low from GFC to now (except illegal immigration blip), hence generally low and stable rates. Going forward working age population growth is almost, which is why I see rates eventually falling substantially.

Rates are mostly a function of nominal GDP growth, which has certainly declined over the boomers adult working years due to: 1. Lower population growth 2. Lower productivity growth 3. Lower inflation

65% of wealth is held by people over 60:

Real personal income growth ex transfers is cratering, doesn’t seem supportive of increased consumer spending leading to increased hiring.

GDP growth plunged in Q1 because of the massive increase in the trade deficit due to tariff front running. That reversed with much lower than normal trade deficits leading to a big increase in Q2 and Q3 GDP. Now trade deficits are increased again heading back to normal levels, meaning a net negative impact on GDP. My guess is GDP growth reverts back to sub-2%.

Pretty obvious the governments are massively intervening in the yen market right now selling dollars and buying yen. They can turn the tide on the Yen’s decline the short run but the forces that were pushing it down namely the bad Japanese economy and trade flows will reemerge. Central banks are far more powerless in the long run than they appear

Growth of Real personal income less transfer payments has completely stalled out. The consumer is tapping into savings to maintain spending, but that only lasts for a little while If incomes don’t turn around, spending is going to take a hit and then corporate earnings with it. I continue to maintain that the Fed is wildly behind the curve and getting worse every day.

YOY growth in private sector employment is falling off a cliff. The growth rate has particularly accelerated since April. Momentum is pretty clear. I guess something could change this but seems rather unlikely.