Base and Solana are the winning chains for payments.
USDC + USDT is the forever duopoly for stablecoins. They have a first-mover advantage and will be impossible to displace, just like the card networks, right?
WRONG.
Anyone who took this view (and some STILL cling to it) has since been awakening to a new reality.
Over the past 12 months, new payments-focused blockchains and stablecoins have emerged, forcing investors around the world to reconsider the market’s rapidly shifting landscape.
Let me tell you why the market was so slow and, in some cases, still isn’t recognizing what’s happening beneath the surface of this budding industry for payments and commerce.
But first, story time…
It was March 2025 (pre-Genius Act, pre-Tempo and Arc, and pre-OUSD), and I was fundraising. Still a guy at that time who was just a few “no’s” away from sleeping in my car, yet only one “yes” away from my dream of founding and operating the most ambitious new payments company in the world. My entire life’s journey to that point had prepared me for this moment.
I showed up to every meeting with absolute conviction, undeterred if the investor’s views opposed mine. I knew this was a matter of *when*, not *if*, and felt certain it would prove true.
Our opinions diverged most widely around three key assumptions:
1. Belief that there would be MANY payments-focused blockchains
2. Absolute conviction that MANY new medium-of-exchange stablecoins would be launched by global brands in the proceeding 24 months
3. Agents would start making payments at volumes not seen since DeFi summer 2020
The response I received was, “We just don’t see any data to support your thesis.” And almost every VC vehemently opposed at least 1 out of 3 of the assumptions above.
It was true that at that time there wasn’t data to support the three assumptions. But my experience traversed decades of building payments systems, during which time I observed a repeating phenomenon - fragmentation. Increasing fragmentation in payments always led to outright competition, copying, and little innovation, and that put constant downward pressure on margins. This is why I was convinced it would happen again with stablecoins.
An investment thesis is an argument about what is probable, built from a strong inductive reasoning pattern. If the data already proves it, it’s no longer a thesis.
As of today, Tempo has surpassed $1B in volume, Arc is live, and more payments-focused chains will follow. At the same time, OUSD launched with 140+ globally recognizable fintechs and 21 banks got together to create their own stablecoin.
But the third leg of my thesis is the part that has yet to be proven. And I KNOW it’s coming.
Agentic payments will scale so much faster than most people realize.
Should I say it louder?
AGENTIC PAYMENTS WILL SCALE SO MUCH FASTER THAN MOST PEOPLE REALIZE.
The new payments stack was never built JUST for humans. Today people move money by manually clicking buttons. We’ve all felt the pain of acting like a robot logging onto an app, waiting for it to load, clicking a dropdown selector, selecting USDC, authenticating with 2FA, and so on. Oh. My. God. Save us all.
This technology was built from the ground up for agents to move money around the world without the need for humans to be present to pay for things online.
Agents are programs. Humans get tired and make mistakes. They lose their keys and wallets. Agents need identity and better tooling to prevent fraud. And with the pace of change in AI, there will absolutely be more fraud vectors to protect against.
Regardless, the agent will execute the program autonomously according to its ruleset 24/7 and never get tired or need a break. This is the future. It’s like Claude Code vs programming in 2005 applied to payments.
If you could see what I see, you’d know that agents are already moving money.
Next up, payment volume scales. And the acceleration curve will be faster and steeper than anyone is projecting.
More is coming. A lot more, and soon.