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Fear of This Being the Last Cycle + Uncertainty of How Long the Good Times Will Last + Social Pressure from Underperforming Others. A deadly trio that’s wrecked decision-making for many. Downstream Effects: - Scattered Focus: Chasing every hot trend instead of concentrating size into kingmaker trades. - Pessimism & Hesitation: Uncertainty leads to weak hands - holding nothing for a meaningful duration. Or not even participating. - No Conviction: Lack of due diligence in projects to develop the confidence needed to hold through volatility. - Lack of Strategy around taking profits: Fully exiting positions on the smallest BTC wick out of fear the run is over. Recommendations: 1) Narrow Your Focus: - Stick to a specific set of metas within one or two chains. - Pick your game: On-chain vs. off-chain. - You’re lying to yourself if you think you can do everything. Optimise to focus on whats highest ROI for your size, your strength and current market conditions. Once you account for this its likely you will have a clear answer where to be and what to do. 2) Understand Your Approach - Know when you’re Investing, Trading, or Speculating. Most confuse these. Simple framework: - Investing: Thesis-based, backed by fundamentals and technicals. Asymmetric information gives you an edge. You’re betting the market will reprice this in 1–3 months. - Trading: Momentum-driven, focused on technicals, catalysts, or narratives (e.g., events, announcements). These are sub-2-week plays but can turn into investments if the price/narrative feedback loop strengthens. - Speculating: Calculated gambles, 0-to-hero plays driven by news (think: Elon tweet hinting at a ticker). Short-lived, fizzling out in hours or days. 3) Stick to Your Plan - Have a clear game plan: - Market caps: What range you’ll enter. - Profit-taking: Rules for scaling out, not nuking your position on fear. - Estimates: Where this asset can go, how quickly it can get there. - Invalidation: Fundamental or technical breakdown - know when and how to cut (partially or fully). Can also be due to broader market moves or date based (e.g. Uncertain Macro reading coming up, likely a good time to take some profits, knowing you will be able to rebuy lower) 4) Know Yourself - Identify your weaknesses: Inexperience, technical gaps, optimism/pessimism bias, size mismanagement, or lack of time. - If you’re ticking more weakness boxes than others in the game, skip it. Play where you have an edge. 5) Continuous Improvement - Reflect on every trade - what worked, what didn’t, why? was it a process / decision making issue or was it a good decision at the time but bad outcome. The goal, make fewer mistakes in every play, compound, size up when hit rate is higher. - If you skip this you won't progress anywhere, will end up in a mental / pnl chop for the rest of your journey. 6) Don't play alone - Trusted market friends are essential. They’ll keep you accountable and help patch your weaknesses. - The best setups come from mutual support—you patch their weaknesses, and they patch yours. - Quality Over Quantity: More people isn’t better. You need high-hit-rate players you can trust, operating at your level or higher in the games you’re playing. - Keep a second group of connections outside your niche. They’ll help you understand macro trends, cycles, and events beyond your immediate focus. This should eventually feedback into your general view and how you approach the games you play.

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