Transition Protocol is a leading geopolitical analysis and world affairs channel exploring global intelligence, international relations and every news
united states
- Tweets 526
- Following 19
- Followers 1,058
- Likes 56
Kushner's Secret Talks With Iran#XiJinping #DonaldTrump #IranWar #VijayPrashad #TransitionProtocol #StraitOfHormuz #MiddleEastCrisis
4
54
The September 30 Blockade Deadline.#XiJinping #DonaldTrump #IranWar #VijayPrashad #TransitionProtocol #StraitOfHormuz #MiddleEastCrisis
2
39
Xi Confronts Trump in Oval Office#Geopolitics #XiJinping #DonaldTrump #IranWar #VijayPrashad #TransitionProtocol #StraitOfHormuz #MiddleEastCrisis
1
4
52
Five signals before Wednesday:
A U.S. reply to Iran's plan. Iranian moves around Sept. 30. The Mecca-pact chiefs' meeting. Yanbu. U.S. bomber, tanker or carrier movement.
CENTCOM has said nothing since Sept. 19.
1
4
12
366
Members get the decoder for all five, including the one that would flip our forecast: zulfiqar.substack.com/p/tehr…
1
75
Pakistan is Iran's most trusted mediator. This week it also helped convene a Mecca-pact military meeting after Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. Both are true today. They cannot both stay true if the pact is triggered.
1
17
361
Our call on which way Islamabad breaks, and the first signal that will show it: zulfiqar.substack.com/p/tehr…
6
107
Brent is $12.68 over WTI. That spread is where the Iran war lives. 10 commodity vessels crossed Hormuz Wednesday vs. a 10-day average of 17. The White House claims 22 million barrels left in one night. Both cannot be the whole picture.
1
10
30
573
The two Brent levels we are watching into Wednesday, and what each would signal: zulfiqar.substack.com/p/tehr…
2
4
126
Saudi Arabia's oil bypass at Yanbu is now defended by France, Greece and a Saudi–Pakistani–Turkish defense pact. Not by the United States. Houthi fire has already pushed some Saudi exports back to Hormuz.
2
16
49
683
Who gained from Washington's absence, who lost, and the Pakistani decision that could end Iran's best channel: zulfiqar.substack.com/p/tehr…
3
132
Iran's plan takes a 60-day framework and runs it in seven days, backward. Per the NYT: end hostilities on all fronts, release at least $12B in frozen assets, waive oil sanctions, lift the blockade. The strait reopens on day seven. U.S. relief first. The strait last.
10
42
1,090
Iran has turned a U.S. aviation ban into a threat against other countries' airports. Rezaei, per Reuters: Gulf states that bar Iranian flights and work with Washington won't be able to operate their airports. Six states plus the UAE have already barred Iranian carriers.
13
42
1,182
Xi left Washington with a trade truce and no Iran deal. Cordial on camera. Our own reporting says Beijing came away set to back Tehran harder. Not independently corroborated; the public tone points the other way. Beijing's refusal of the U.S. aviation ban is on the record.
12
47
1,441
Iran's parliament wants to impeach the man who carried the Hormuz offer. It wasn't his. Kyodo reports the Supreme Leader and the Security Council approved it. Its secretary says the terms were set at the top. Tehran is fighting over who carried it, not what it says.
3
5
23
1,588
Who in Tehran fights the format if Washington answers, and why that strengthens the offer. Today's members' briefing: zulfiqar.substack.com/p/tehr…
1
4
214
Iran gave itself a deadline on August 16. It runs out Wednesday. Per Kyodo, Iran's Security Council reserved the right to resume strikes on U.S. forces if the blockade wasn't lifted in 45 days. One anonymous official. Unconfirmed. Washington says it's in no rush.
1
7
47
1,361
Three ways Tehran can answer its own deadline, and the one we rank most likely: zulfiqar.substack.com/p/tehr…
1
3
170
Pepe Escobar says Iran's Supreme National Security Council decided on Aug. 16 that if the U.S. naval blockade wasn't lifted within 45 days, Iran "would reserve the right to strike U.S. forces."
Day 45 is Wednesday, Sept. 30.
"The window closes next Wednesday."
11
236
862
23,537
He said it Friday, Sept. 25, on Transition Protocol, alongside the offer Iran has put through the New York channel: Hormuz reopens on day 7, if its conditions are met.
Full briefing :piped.video/watch?v=5-ZBP3uM…
Substack:zulfiqar.substack.com/p/pepe…
1
4
15
1,558