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If the Packers win tonight, someone who likes THIS POST wins $50! 💰
If they cover a -4.5 spread, another person wins $100!
STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN⬇️
I hate betting ANY game with Atlanta in it, but tonight I’m riding with the Packers.
Why?
Green Bay has won 13 consecutive home openers.
That ties the longest streak in NFL HISTORY.
The Packers are also 12-4 at home against Atlanta all-time and have won the last four Falcons-Packers meetings at Lambeau.
In those 4 games the Packers won by 14, 14, 6, and 1 with an average win margin of 8.75.
The falcons have the WORST offense in the NFL right now btw…
They have had 25 offensive possessions have haven’t made it to the red zone ONCE.
The falcons and packers are BOTH 0-2 ATS so far this year.
I think that will change with a Green Bay home opener…
Since Matt LaFleur took over in 2019, when Green Bay is at Lambeau and favored between -5 and -7.5, the Packers are:
10-3-1 ATS 📈
That’s a 76.9% cover rate excluding the push and 12-2 straight up.
And the Jordan Love-era version is even BETTER!
Since Love became the starter in 2023, Green Bay has only had four home games in this exact -5 to -7.5 range:
3-0-1 ATS.
Tonight’s ref is Sean Smith.
Green Bay is 2-0 at home and 3-1 ATS in Smith-refereed games.
The falcons are 2-4 SU with Smith
In 2025 favorites with Shawn Smith went 11-6 SU and 9-8 ATS.
How am I approaching this bet?
On a 10k bet…
I’m going $7,692.31 on the moneyline & $2,307.69 ATS.
That was if the Packers win and don’t cover, I still make 10%. If they win AND cover, I’ll make 53.3%.
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BONUS PICK
I’m doubling down on the Cubs today.
Why?
When the Cubs go into Game 3 after losing Games 1 & 2 of a series…
Chicago has been in this exact situation 11 times this season before today.
Record: 8-3 (72.7%)
Also, that have won 4 of their last 5 Game 3s after starting 0-2 at HOME.
It’s a WIN AND THEY’RE IN playoff scenario for the Cubs.
The party is Chicago is going to be LIT tonight!
🥳🥳🥳