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Agentic commerce is a bloodbath for the middlemen
Everyone's hyped about AI that buys stuff for you. But think about what gets skipped. No Google ad gets clicked. No Pinterest board gets scrolled. Nobody opens Booking com. The agent just buys the thing.
YTD:
The Trade Desk -66%
Chewy -44%
Pinterest -31%
Booking -23%
Everyone's staring at Meta's $140B capex bill. Look at the cash engine underneath.
Q2 free cash flow collapsed 91% to $784M. But that same quarter revenue grew 28% to $60.8B. The business isn't broken, the cash is just being reinvested.
Off trough FCF/share of $16.08, at 30% growth on a 40x multiple:
2027: $944/share
2028: $1,190/share
2029: $1,500/share
$META
Amazon Ads in 2027, according to Wall Street:
Revenue: $90B
Operating profit: $63B
One vertical could generate 44% of Amazon’s total operating profit.
$AMZN
Meta is roughly 11.5% of Bill Ackman's portfolio.
He forecasts: 22% annual EPS growth through 2029. Apply the average P/E ratio:
That's $1,260/share.
$META
Dev Kantesaria's framework:
Over time, price follows free cash flow per share.
If AppLovin keeps compounding FCF/share, today's price could be a ~50% discount to intrinsic value.
$APP
Broadcom is a cash flow machine.
Wall Street estimates FCF/share to compound well over 50% annually. Assign the current multiple:
2027: $536/share
2028: $804/share
2029: $1,240/share
$AVGO
Bill Ackman estimates Netflix can compound EPS by 19% annually.
He's not alone.
These are the projections from top firms:
1. Pershing Square: 19% CAGR
2. JPMorgan: 24% CAGR
3. Evercore: 20% CAGR
4. Jefferies: 20% CAGR
Assign a 25x multiple, and it returns 22% per year.
$NFLX
Bill Ackman said he's looking for "robust durable growth companies that hold a moat around them".
Here are 7 businesses that fit this description:
1. Netflix - $NFLX: 8/10 MOAT
Growth: 19% CAGR
Ackman Position: Yes
Super-Investors are buying Vistra Corp.
Wall Street projects...
- Earnings: 35.7% CAGR
- P/E Ratio: 30x
If they execute, you're looking at a +42% return a year from today's price.
$VST
Google Cloud: 100% increase in new customers...
“We have seen more than 2x growth YoY in new customer acquisitions, and also 2x growth QoQ and YoY in deals over $100 million.”
– Thomas Kurian, CEO, Google Cloud
$GOOGL$GOOG