german swing trader | orderflow analyst | quantitative trading | not financial advice
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$BTC 📊
This week’s candle close will be decisive.
If we leave the weekly Value Area here, we can likely expect further local value rotation lower. Therefore, holding here is crucial for any further upwards potential.
On the higher timeframe, a weekly close above the key high at 82.8k would also strongly support the bullish thesis.
Historically, however, simply wicking above the high has not been a major decision point and hasn’t carried much weight on a weekly structural basis.
That said, it’s certainly something we need to keep in mind; especially when looking at the next retracement opportunities.
For now, my base case remains a choppy Saturday, so I will update at the EoW with the final conclusion 🫡
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great explanation 🤝
looking at something very similar right now as for my base case!
$BTC at a decision point 📌
We are currently trading around a major historical POC and starting to build value here.
Above us, we saw clear rejection around the next Volume Area at 87.5k.
With that, BTC failed to reclaim the Yearly Open and slightly front-ran the level.
📊 Order Flow
We are now seeing the first signs of a more bearish character.
The auction (and with it, volume) is clearly developing lower.
Looking at the weekly profile, the largest amount of volume has been traded around the current region.
That makes this area particularly important to monitor.
That said, we also need to evaluate the constructive signs:
1. No real selling intent so far.
The move lower has primarily been fueled by longs closing out, rather than aggressive new sellers entering.
2. Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish.
Despite the local bearish structure, the broader bullish structure is still intact.
💼 Positioning
My positioning remains unchanged from yesterday.
I have already taken 50% profits from my short.
From here, I’ll closely monitor how the auction develops.
If we see further bearish signs throughout the day; or if my thesis becomes invalidated.
I’ll be quick to update you.
Does BTC continue developing value lower, or can buyers reclaim control around this major POC? 👇
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$BTC at a decision point 📌
We are currently trading around a major historical POC and starting to build value here.
Above us, we saw clear rejection around the next Volume Area at 87.5k.
With that, BTC failed to reclaim the Yearly Open and slightly front-ran the level.
📊 Order Flow
We are now seeing the first signs of a more bearish character.
The auction (and with it, volume) is clearly developing lower.
Looking at the weekly profile, the largest amount of volume has been traded around the current region.
That makes this area particularly important to monitor.
That said, we also need to evaluate the constructive signs:
1. No real selling intent so far.
The move lower has primarily been fueled by longs closing out, rather than aggressive new sellers entering.
2. Higher-timeframe structure remains bullish.
Despite the local bearish structure, the broader bullish structure is still intact.
💼 Positioning
My positioning remains unchanged from yesterday.
I have already taken 50% profits from my short.
From here, I’ll closely monitor how the auction develops.
If we see further bearish signs throughout the day; or if my thesis becomes invalidated.
I’ll be quick to update you.
Does BTC continue developing value lower, or can buyers reclaim control around this major POC? 👇
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The easiest intelligence test in trading:
Ask someone if they understand Expected Value.
Some people genuinely cannot comprehend probabilistic thinking.
Apparently, if a strategy has positive EV, every single trade MUST be a winner.
100% win rate or it’s a scam 👍
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GM ☕️
$BTC is coming to a halt around its POC at 84.2k.
Locally, we have formed a small bearish sequence above us:
High → LH → LL
Whether this structure sustains will depend on how price reacts if we continue pushing higher into the Fib zones.
📊 Order Flow
For now, the setup is still somewhat constructive.
Aggressive sellers have not started showing up yet, meaning there is still little real intent from the sell side.
As discussed yesterday, the previous drop was essentially an OI flush, punishing late longs and clearing some excess positioning.
Another healthy sign is that passive bids are chasing price higher.
This strengthens the potential support developing below us.
💼 Positioning
With BTC now consolidating around the POC, I’ve cut back half of my short exposure.
I’ll look to re-allocate that capital if we push higher into the potential trend continuation zones without seeing meaningful seller intent.
For now, I’m simply letting the market show me what comes next.
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$BTC 📉
BTC is dumping and filling the inefficiencies below us.
So far, the move is primarily being fuelled by longs closing out.
This doesn’t come as a major surprise considering how much capital entered the market around the local top, chasing the move higher.
The yearly open at 87.6k was a major target for many, and price ended up front-running it very closely.
⚠️ The Warning Signs
We did get some warning signs ahead of the dump.
Most notably, a bearish Spot CVD divergence was already developing as price pushed higher.
📍 My Plan
My plan remains unchanged.
I’ll continue looking for trend-continuation longs below us, especially around the retest of prior range extremes.
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GM ☕️
$BTC has started to retrace some of yesterday’s impulsive push higher.
So far, the overall bullish structure and strength remain perfectly valid.
📊 Structure
My base case still remains the formation of a range.
We’re essentially following the basic AMT cycle:
Compression → Expansion → Compression
However, I’m currently not majorly interested in taking positions at these levels.
We don’t yet have a confirmed local range environment, so there’s still too much room for price to move before a clear setup develops.
I also still see a push into the 87.9k nPOC as a very realistic scenario.
📍 Levels
This is also where I would start looking for my first short positions again, assuming we respect the level rather than simply rip through it.
On the long side, we now have multiple options for trend continuation.
A retest of the initial resistance levels should now have the potential to act as support.
📈 Order Flow
The order flow is also showing a constructive read.
Passive bids are starting to move higher through the books, which helps validate the support levels we’re currently watching.
For now, I’m staying patient and letting the market develop.
There is no need to force a position before the structure gives us something clear.
Does BTC build a range here, or do we get one more push into the 87.9k nPOC first? 👇
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📊 $BTC HTF Update
Today, we broke $82.8K; a major structural level on the chart.
With this break, we now have a confirmed Bullish Market Structure Shift since the beginning of the bear market.
This is exactly in line with what I outlined on September 11:
“Structurally, I would have liked to see a clean break above $82K.”
Now that we have it, my broader retracement thesis remains perfectly valid and gains even more confluence.
📈 My Plan
If we get a retracement into the previously outlined FIB retracement zones or a retest of major nPOCs below, I will gradually increase my swing long exposure.
I have already allocated substantial capital into spot during the lower range through DCA.
However, I still have capital available specifically for a potential retracement, which I would use to build further spot exposure in these areas.
🧭 The Bigger Picture
With such a significant structural break, the probability of the bottom being in - which was already high in my view - has increased further.
Of course, I’m still operating on probabilities.
I’m prepared to use every retracement rather than chase price higher.
From an investment perspective, I’m very happy with how this has developed.
The market is now giving us the structural confirmation I was waiting for.
Now I want to see how price behaves on the potential retracements; especially around the major value areas below.
nitter.net/quantlibrary/status/20…
📊 My $BTC HTF Plan
As we are currently in consolidation, I wanted to shine some light on the macro scenario I see as most likely right now:
A retracement to fill the inefficiencies below us.
I’m actively preparing for this scenario through hedge short positions on a swing basis.
But the shorts aren’t the most interesting part.
The real opportunity would be the long exposure created by a potential retracement.
📉 Retracement Scenario
I’ll be actively looking to scale into swing longs as we move lower.
The key areas I’m watching are:
• Swing Fib retracement Zone
• nPOC from the macro Volume Profile
• $67K as the deepest level I’d currently want to see
Why $67K?
> Any sustained acceptance below that level would imply a major value migration back into the Q1–Q2 range, which would materially change the current structure <
Even for my spot portfolio, I’d see opportunities here.
Although I already have satisfactory capital allocated within the lower range, I would look to reactivate my Spot DCA algorithm in these regions.
🧭 Is the bottom in?
This question has come up repeatedly in the Discord recently.
My answer is clear:
As of now, I believe the probability of the bottom being in currently outweighs the opposing case given the current data.
Structurally, I would have liked to see a clean break above $82K.
However, when looking at the broader dynamics and various on-chain metrics, the picture is increasingly shifting in favour of the bulls.
⚠️ But probabilities ≠ Inevitability
I’m not trading a prediction.
I’m trading probabilities.
Every perp position has a clearly defined invalidation, and that discipline is a fundamental part of my personal edge.
So yes; a final leg lower is still absolutely on the table.
And if it happens, I’ll use the opportunity to build the long exposure I’m preparing for.
The goal isn’t to predict the exact bottom.
It’s to be positioned correctly when the market tells us where it is.
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Yes, but I believe Apple prohibits the direct forewarding to a website for this. They really made it hard for developers tbh.
But I agree it’s total non-sense. They just should’ve not even added the feature to purchase in-app.
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It’s an IOS thing. They take an additional charge on in-app purchases. Every App / Service has to comply. Really annoying.
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thanks for speaking this out. important message.
99% of this industry is so fake. from one day to the other everyone apparently made the perfect micro bottom call again 😂
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GM ☕️
$BTC is starting the week with an explosive push out of the range.
With this move, we have taken out the long-discussed $82.8K high; a major HTF structural shift.
For now, the focus is on the LTF:
📍 Price has already visited and tested the $84.2K nPOC. I still want to see a strong reclaim of this level.
📊 Order Flow: The move is currently fuelled by aggressive longs initiating, followed by shorts getting squeezed out.
My short position has been invalidated: -0.5R.
Full transparency in the Quant Library!
I will NOT blindly try to re-short price discovery here.
I’ll wait for clear structure to develop before taking the next trade.
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Check yesterdays post for that; I outlined exact metrics used for this thesis.
the time window I am refering to here is of course a local observation, not a macro shift..
$BTC Short Update 📉
After yesterday’s aggressive push higher, BTC is now consolidating slightly above the local rVAH.
Price continues to slowly crawl higher, but the underlying flow is starting to concern me.
📊 Order Flow
Price is rising despite:
• Falling volume
• Bearish Spot CVD divergence
• Bearish RSI divergence
All of these suggest that the momentum behind the move is fading.
For now, I'll continue watching closely to see whether buyers can maintain control or whether this move starts to lose steam.
💼 Positioning
The aggressive short I took yesterday is currently slightly underwater.
However, I’m not particularly concerned.
This is a swing position, and according to my system, the probabilities are still in my favour.
I’m currently in the position with 0.5R risk and will look to size up once we get further LTF confirmation.
Until then, there’s no reason to force anything.
Let’s see if we get another boring Saturday. 🤝
Will BTC continue grinding higher, or is this weakening momentum going to trigger a reversal? 👇
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$BTC 📉
BTC is starting to show first signs of weakness around the current range extremes.
This came as no major surprise to me, as the stalling momentum behind rising prices had reached extreme levels across various metrics.
👀 Outlook
BTC has now broken back into the local Value Area, which is currently enabling another value rotation to develop.
Because of this, my short will remain open according to plan.
However, it’s still the weekend, and the moves we’re seeing should be viewed critically.
The current low-liquidity environment can easily lead to fakeouts and unreliable price action.
For now, I’ll simply wait for Monday.
Use Sunday to prepare for the week ahead and reflect on the previous one.
Wishing everyone a great Sunday. 🤝
Do we see further rotation through value, or will Monday bring another change in direction? 👇
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