New Mexican, Former Assistant Research Professor, Business Owner

US
$ORCL now predicted to destroy the global pension system and stock markets through its current collapse that initiated from hiding operating cash flow problems via Enron style accounting of “Customer Pre-Payments with Significant Interest Component” and first Force Majeur announcement of a public company (outside COVID, miners, and drillers) since Enron
Realistic Enron-style Oracle collapse via fraud: stock zeros out, $125B+ bonds default crushing pensions and insurers. 141k jobs lost. Banks, governments, telecoms face DB/ERP/cloud outages and forced costly migrations. AI contracts unravel, idling data centers. Tech sector tanks, credit tightens, AI-driven growth slows. Markets take multi-trillion hit but no full banking contagion.
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New Millenium Prize Problem If OpenAi and Anthropic had ZERO expenses whatsoever it would take both companies 20 years of their current annual revenue run rate to meet the $2.5 Trillion of debt obligations. Both companies are projected to LOSE hundreds of billions of dollars over the next 5-7 years. Make the math work.
OpenAI and Anthropic off balance sheet $2.5 Trillion debt (equal to 7% National Debt and roughly every hyperscaler combined ; also responsible for nearly all hyperscaler compute commitments) contributes to a D/E ratio that is 5x worse than bankrupt telecom companies of the internet bubble. FIVE TIMES. $META $GOOG $META $ORCL $MSFT $NVDA $AMD
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Analysts warn that $ORCL faces likelihood of other data center delays and revenue shortfalls that could significantly impact $BE who relies very heavily on the company.
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$ORCL bonds crossing 8.3% for the first time after Larry Ellison used the Enron trick (first time anyone did since Enron) of “Customer Pre-Payments with a Significant Interest Component” to hide Operating Cash Flow Problems. Notably Oracle also was the first Publicly Listed US company outside of drillers and Miners (or Covid) to use Force Majeur to avoid paying on a data center lease it couldn’t afford, since… you guessed it… Enron.
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Roger retweeted
Just to clarify: 1. A first lien just gives a lender the highest-priority claim on specific collateral. 2. A first-lien debt doesn't guarantee a full repayment or zero risk. 3. Also, AAA does not mean a thing. It might as well be JUNK. You are welcome.
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Roger retweeted
Here's this week's monologue, covering how $200bn-$300bn of AI GPUs are sitting in warehouses, how hyperscalers are overstating their AI capacity, and why the AI overbuild is magnitudes worse than the Dot-Com era's "dark fiber." piped.video/watch?v=ZFu5Hiw2…
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OpenAI and Anthropic off balance sheet $2.5 Trillion debt (equal to 7% National Debt and roughly every hyperscaler combined ; also responsible for nearly all hyperscaler compute commitments) contributes to a D/E ratio that is 5x worse than bankrupt telecom companies of the internet bubble. FIVE TIMES. $META $GOOG $META $ORCL $MSFT $NVDA $AMD
Anthropic and OpenAi now have $2.5 trillion of off balance sheet debt. 7% of the National Debt Roughly as much as $GOOG $META $AMZN $MSFT and $ORCL combined
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I can no longer fit all $ORCL 8% bonds on a single page. Headed to 9%. It’s been 24 minutes. #Bankruptcysigns
It’s time to investigate $ORCL and Ellison for fraud. Not only are all the bonds now flying to above 8%, we’re heading to 9%.
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It’s time to investigate $ORCL and Ellison for fraud. Not only are all the bonds now flying to above 8%, we’re heading to 9%.
I love the part Larry Ellison lied to everyone’s face about RPO conversion while registering a $7.5 billion share sale and becoming the first company since Enron to use “Customer Pre-Payments with a Significant Financing Component” to hide Operating Cash Flow problems at Oracle $ORCL
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Outside of a “fraudulent” (unproven) chip deal, paid for by investors, there are essentially no $AMD orders Most companies are using $NVDA VERA Rubin The fraud is insane.
OpenAI and $META get free ( $AMD ) investor paid chips worth $50-$75 billion by obtaining 20% ownership (10% each) in $AMD if stock price is above $600. AMD is $640 with a PE of 160. People can’t see the fraud or 1999-2006 comparison.
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$META bonds fall to speculative junk credit rating levels as company faces severe bankruptcy risks in the next 5 years. As I promised months ago.
It's spreading: Meta data center bonds crashing to B2/B levels (7.5%) despite A+ rating. Market calling bluff on residual value guarantees.
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Anthropic “profitability” will show that the company was largely working with its hyperscaler RPO partners (also investors) to defraud public investors by deferring payment obligations until after IPO and capital raise is completed. Bookmark it. $NVDA $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN
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