Equity investor sharing wisdom. I am not your advisor.🌹
- Tweets 23,455
- Following 5,134
- Followers 33,762
- Likes 6,887
The ability to sell is not a reason to sell
I can very much relate to what Balmer is saying and to the question he was asked by Charlie Munger. I certainly sell stocks from time to time, but generally speaking, when I go into business with someone, in public or private markets, my intention is to throw down with that person indefinitely, or at least for a very long time.
I don’t buy a stock hoping someone will pay me more for it next year. I buy a piece of a business because I want to participate in what those people might build over the next decade or two.
The stock market does something psychologically dangerous to ownership. It takes an asset that may require decades to realize its potential and puts a blinking price next to it every second, constantly inviting you to reconsider a decision that shouldn’t need reconsidering every second.
Imagine owning 20% of an incredible private business with an exceptional partner. Sales are growing, customers love the product, the opportunity is getting larger and your partner keeps reinvesting intelligently. Then one morning someone knocks on your door and offers 15% less for your shares than they offered yesterday.
Would anything have changed? Probably not. Yet put the exact same business inside a brokerage account and suddenly that lower offer feels like new information.
That is one of the strangest things about public markets. Liquidity is a feature of the asset, but investors allow it to become a feature of their behavior.
I rarely sell simply because a stock went up. I rarely sell simply because it went down. I don’t sell because I’m bored, because something else is moving faster, because the market found a new obsession, or because I’ve owned something for “too long.” None of those things tell me what I really want to know.
Are the people still exceptional? Is the culture intact? Is the moat getting wider? Are incremental dollars being reinvested intelligently? Is the opportunity ahead still much larger than the business today? Most importantly, has the destination changed?
Indefinite ownership does not mean blind loyalty. Management can disappoint me. Economics can deteriorate, competitive advantages can disappear, capital allocation can become destructive, and eventually price can become so disconnected from reasonable future economics that selling makes sense. But these are business reasons to reconsider ownership. A moving stock price is not.
I think investors dramatically underestimate the value of continuity. Every time you sell a wonderful business, you aren’t merely making a sell decision. You are making two decisions: that you should stop owning this business and that whatever you do with the money next will produce a better long term outcome after tax. This second decision is much harder than people pretend.
The market gives us the extraordinary privilege of being able to end a business partnership at 9:43 on a Tuesday morning with the push of a button. I’m grateful that privilege exists. I just don’t confuse the ability to leave with a reason to leave.
When I find exceptional people building an exceptional business with decades of opportunity ahead of them, my preferred holding period isn’t 5 years or ten years, it is until they give me a reason not to be their partner anymore. 🌹
Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer was asked by Charlie Munger, in front of a whole golf club, why he held his Microsoft stock when his partners sold.
Then Munger added: "I know you're not that smart."
Ballmer's comeback: "No, but I'm that loyal."
5
3
104
15,732
Someone on X: “Hey Rose, what do you think of my portfolio and returns?”
Me: “Before you show me the portfolio, show me your brokerage transactions for the last 5 years.”
I want to see what you bought when things were falling. What you sold when you got scared. How often you chased, panicked, tinkered, averaged down, took profits too early, or sat on your ass.
Your portfolio is a snapshot. Your transaction history is an autobiography.
Show me 5 years of decisions and I’ll learn far more about you as an investor than 5 minutes looking at what you own today.
🌹
4
3
131
9,026
Thoughts on Buybacks
One of the most underrated forms of compounding has almost nothing to do with explosive growth. It happens when a good business keeps buying back its own shares.
Imagine earnings grow just 5% a year. Nothing heroic and perhaps quote slowly. Now imagine the company also buys back 5% of its shares every year.
After 10 years, total earnings are only 63%. But earnings per share are 170% higher because those earnings are being divided among dramatically fewer owners. That’s a staggering difference.
That is the part I think investors underestimate. The business does not need to become 3 times larger for your economic interest to become almost 3 times more valuable.
Buybacks allow your ownership percentage to compound without you investing another dollar. You can go to sleep owning 1% of a company and, over time, wake up owning 2% simply because everyone else’s shares were repurchased by your business.
$NVR is a great example. The houses were only part of the story. For decades, $NVR kept shrinking the shares count while the underlying business continued producing cash.
And this is where buybacks become especially powerful. You do not need heroic revenue growth, heroic margins, or some giant new addressable market. You need a durable business, lots of free cash flow, a reasonable valuation, and a disciplined management that understands math.
Of course price matters enormously. Buying back stock cheaply increases the ownership of remaining shareholders at attractive prices, while buying it back at absurd valuations destroys value.
Growth gets most of the attention because it is easy to see and investors and the whole Wall Street fashion show are conditioned to jubilation over GROWTH. Buy prudently buying back shares intelligently is much quieter, and in many cases more effective for the sensible shareholder.
Sometimes the greatest compounding is not a business growing faster and faster. It is the same good business being divided among fewer and fewer owners.
🌹
26
13
153
10,271
I rarely pay much attention to what other investors are buying or selling, but I do find myself wondering why Ted Weschler $BRK is buying so much $LEN.
$LEN is no longer really the old $LEN. They spun out Millrose, pushed much of the land burden off the balance sheet, and are moving toward something much closer to the $NVR asset light model.
At the same time, rates are high and almost everything housing related is in the penalty box. $FND, $SITE, etc.
The market still seems to price $LEN like the old land heavy homebuilder because cyclical earnings deserve a low multiple.
But that may be missing the most important change. If the new $LEN needs far less capital to grow, then when housing eventually normalizes, you could have similar economics coming back against a much smaller capital base. Same houses, smaller balance sheet, much better economics.
The interesting wrinkle is that $NVR has basically been doing this for decades and the market still mostly treats it like a cyclical homebuilder. So I’m not sure the bet is that Wall Street suddenly wakes up one day and gives $LEN some giant premium multiple.
Maybe the better bet is much simpler. Free cash flow compounds, shares keep getting bought back, and over time the same earnings get divided among fewer owners?
That is largely how $NVR created so much value. Not because the market gave it some crazy multiple, but because there were fewer and fewer shares around to split the economics.
🌹
14
7
127
17,428
There is an important subtlety here 19x $NVDA is not necessarily cheaper than 26x $GOOGL simply because 19 < 26.
The market is saying it has more confidence in $GOOG normalized earnings 10 years from now than in $NVDA maintaining today’s margins, growth, economics a decade from now.
Of course, nobody knows what either business will look like that far out, including the people running them. So don’t kill the messenger... 🌹
Big Tech PE ratios:
Apple $AAPL: 37x
Amazon $AMZN: 27x
Alphabet $GOOGL: 26x
Microsoft $MSFT: 25x
Meta $META: 22x
Broadcom $AVGO: 21x
Nvidia $NVDA: 19x
12
9
183
29,653
Ever since @wealthmatica told me about $VOYG, I’ve been watching it and slowly learning more about the business.
The stock is getting killed today after announcing $350m of convertible notes. But a business like $VOYG is fundamentally capital intensive, and if it executes, this won’t be the last time it raises capital.
Dilution obviously matters (a lot), but it also shouldn’t be a surprise in this case. A nearly 20% haircut for financing a business model that was always going to require substantial capital seems excessive to me. 🌹
3
3
68
15,738
That’s quite the statistic 💪
One of the craziest stats in financial history:
Berkshire could fall 99% and still match the growth of $1 of the S&P 500 since 1965.
H/t @MebFaber
44
7,734
One of the best posts I’ve read in X 👏
🚨 GANARLE AL S&P 500 DE FORMA CONSISTENTE ES MUCHO MÁS DIFÍCIL DE LO QUE PARECE.
A 20 años, apenas una fracción mínima de los fondos activos logra superarlo. (Por eso no le creas a Nicolas Ruso que te dice que hace 40% anual y que es facil..)
Y miren algunos de los nombres que aparecen entre los grandes outliers históricos:
Warren Buffett · George Soros · Stanley Druckenmiller · Peter Lynch · Charlie Munger · David Tepper · Joel Greenblatt.
Gente extraordinariamente preparada que dedicó prácticamente su vida a invertir.
¿Es imposible ganarle al mercado? Para nada.
Pero mantener retornos extraordinarios durante muchos años es otra historia.
Por acá venimos alrededor de 25% anual desde 2019, pero también sabemos que hubo una cuota de suerte y contexto, especialmente con Argentina, que nos dio una mano ENORME.
No espero que eso sea sostenible para siempre.
Si con el tiempo esa rentabilidad se normaliza más cerca de 15–18% anual, seguiría siendo un resultado espectacular (mi cartera es mas riesgosa que el SPX..)
Y por eso hay que tener MUCHO cuidado con el que te vende 30–40% anual como si fuera fácil, seguro y repetible.
Si hasta Buffett, Soros o Druckenmiller tuvieron años horribles, imaginate el nivel de humo que hay que vender para prometerte eso sin riesgo.
No hace falta hacer 40% anual para construir mucho patrimonio.
Hace falta sobrevivir, ser consistente y no comerse una estafa por perseguir retornos imposibles.
Un ejemplo simple del poder del interés compuesto:
Si desde los 18 hasta los 25 años invertís US$100 por mes y después, desde los 25 hasta los 40, US$200 por mes:
Al 10% anual: tendrías ~US$129.000
Al 15% anual: tendrías ~US$237.000
Y eso habiendo aportado de tu bolsillo apenas US$44.400.
Por eso no hace falta perseguir retornos delirantes.
Tiempo + constancia + interés compuesto hacen muchísimo más de lo que parece.
4
7
105
31,482
Every day this guy says “a ton happened in the market today.” Truth is perhaps he’s right that a lot has happened, but on the vast majority of days, almost nothing happened that actually matters. And a vast majority of it is a distraction, because few days from now, no one will remember or care about this stuff.
He also says “Wall Street is the greatest show on earth”. I don’t think so. Investing isn’t a show, and it was never meant to entertain you.
In fact, good investing is supposed to be boring. Very, very boring. You do the work, make the decision, and then the best thing you can do is leave it alone, preferably for many years or even decades.
Of course, almost everyone already knows this. The problem is very few people have the discipline or mental wherewithal to actually live it because they are constantly trying to extract entertainment from a discipline that is supposed to be boring.
If you’re looking to investing for entertainment and jubilation, my advice is simple. First, get a life outside the market. Second, seriously reconsider what your investment goals actually are.
Then again, what do I know? I’m named after a flower. 🌹
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:
1. President Trump said Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon” remains the administration’s only objective, adding that he has a “big decision” to make regarding the conflict. He also reiterated that he believes the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal after the U.S. election, while saying he would “give no credence to the election” when making decisions on Iran. The remarks come as the administration continues weighing both military and diplomatic options amid ongoing talks with Tehran.
2. Meta $META continues expanding Muse’s ecosystem through new partnerships aimed at turning the AI assistant into a broader consumer platform. The latest integrations include Instacart for grocery shopping and delivery, PayPal for shopping and checkout, Expedia for trip planning and hotel bookings, and Shopify for shopping across millions of merchants. The partnerships significantly expand Muse’s ability to complete real-world tasks directly within conversations, moving beyond simple chat into a full AI commerce and productivity assistant.
3. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.1M contracts, $TSLA with 1.5M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $MU with 964K contracts, $META with 936K contracts, $INTC with 816K contracts, $AMZN with 682K contracts, $GOOGL with 662K contracts, $SPCX with 644K contracts, and $AMD with 622K contracts.
4. SoFi $SOFI has become the first U.S. national bank to go live with stablecoin settlement across Mastercard’s $MA network. The company is moving its full debit and credit card program—representing more than $25B in annualized payment volume—to blockchain-based settlement using SoFiUSD, a stablecoin redeemable 1:1 for U.S. dollars. Merchants will not need to hold stablecoins or build new infrastructure, with funds able to settle directly into a SoFi Bank account and be withdrawn as cash. SoFi also said it is in discussions with major U.S. retailers and technology platforms, while it and Mastercard are exploring cross-border payments and remittances as the next phase of the partnership.
5. SanDisk $SNDK jumped 7% after Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, calling it “not your father’s SanDisk.” The firm argues AI is transforming NAND from a commodity storage product into a system-critical component of AI infrastructure, creating a significantly stronger long-term growth story. Rosenblatt also highlighted that SanDisk recently joined the S&P 100, a milestone that could increase institutional ownership and index-related demand for the stock.
6. Michael Burry said he is now at full size across several positions, calling current market prices “rather attractive.” He added to short positions in Micron $MU, Nebius $NBIS, the Semiconductor ETF $SOXX, and Palantir $PLTR, while increasing long positions in QXO $QXO, Build-A-Bear Workshop $BBW, Sprouts Farmers Market $SFM, Birkenstock $BIRK, and MercadoLibre $MELI. Burry wrote, “I find the prices offered by the market rather attractive. All these positions are full positions for me now.”
7. AppLovin $APP was reiterated Buy by Citi with a $600 price target after new data pointed to accelerating e-commerce adoption. Citi said the platform had 13,105 global e-commerce clients as of September 18, up 5.1% week over week, the fastest growth rate in 5 months. International merchant growth accelerated 11.5% week over week, outpacing the U.S., while quarter-to-date weekly growth averaged 2.0%, implying roughly 11,600 e-commerce stores on the platform by Q3 2026.
8. Apple $AAPL unveiled a new Mac mini and Mac Studio, with a major focus on on-device AI performance. The new Mac mini features the M6 chip and delivers up to 4x faster AI performance, starting at $899. The new Mac Studio is powered by the M5 Max or M5 Ultra, with the top configuration offering up to 512GB of unified memory, 1.2TB/s of memory bandwidth, an 80-core GPU, and the ability to run large language models entirely on-device. Apple is also introducing Thunderbolt 5 with RDMA, enabling multiple Mac Studios to be linked together for up to 3x faster distributed AI inference. The Mac Studio starts at $2,499, while the M5 Ultra model starts at $5,499.
9. IonQ $IONQ said it has demonstrated what it calls the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder running on a standard off-the-shelf CPU. The system was tested on benchmark circuits simulating up to 408 logical qubits and more than 31.5M quantum operations, while adding as little as 0.02% processing overhead. The decoder runs continuously in the background, enabling quantum error correction without interrupting quantum execution. IonQ said the milestone supports its Walking Cat architecture and its roadmap toward quantum systems capable of controlling thousands of qubits.
10. China imported 1,141 tonnes of gold during the first 8 months of 2026, the largest amount ever recorded for that period and already more than the country's total gold imports for all of 2025. At the current pace, annual imports are on track to exceed 1,700 tonnes for the first time. Chinese gold ETFs also added 44 tonnes over the first eight months of the year, up 18% year over year. The surge has been driven by strong investment demand, economic uncertainty, and a stronger yuan, which has made overseas gold purchases more attractive.
11. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $999M in inflows on Monday, their largest daily intake since October 2025 and the 9th-largest daily inflow since U.S. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The move followed another strong session on Friday, when the funds brought in $433M. Demand was led by $IBIT, which attracted $381M, its third-largest daily inflow since launch, bringing its total over the last 3 trading days to $665M. So far in September, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $1.3B in inflows after pulling in $3.5B during August, highlighting continued institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure.
12. President Trump disclosed 1,156 securities transactions made on his behalf in July, totaling roughly $79M–$270M, including at least $43.6M in purchases and $35.6M in sales. The largest disclosed transactions were $5M–$25M sales of $MSFT Microsoft and $AMZN Amazon on July 20, followed three days later by smaller purchases in both companies. Other notable moves included selling $1M–$5M of Oracle while buying stocks such as $NVDA Nvidia, $INTU Intuit, $MRVL Marvell, $CRM Salesforce, and $CHD Church & Dwight, alongside significant rotation through ETFs, Treasuries, municipal bonds, and international bond funds. The White House said the portfolio is independently managed by third-party financial institutions and that neither President Trump nor his family directs the trades. The July filing follows 1,051 disclosed transactions in June, while Trump's 2025 annual financial disclosure reported more than 21,000 trades across 8 accounts.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
34
10
215
36,178
I don’t mean to keep sharing reviews of my book, but I put an enormous amount of effort into writing it and these messages from early readers genuinely mean a lot to me. I spent years collecting the lessons and obsessing over how to explain them in a way that would actually stay with people and make them better investors.
I never wanted to write another investing book filled with stock tips, formulas or recycled ideas. I wanted to write the book I wish someone had handed me when I started, a book about how an investor’s mind changes after making mistakes, studying businesses and learning what actually matters.
A lot of what is in these pages I had to learn the expensive way. How to recognize a truly exceptional business, separate a great company from a great investment, think about valuation, risk, management, capital allocation, patience and conviction.
I also wanted to go much deeper than investing. A huge part of becoming a better investor is becoming a better thinker, learning how to control your emotions, question your own assumptions and sit still when everyone around you is losing their mind.
I feel comfortable making one promise. Whether you are a complete beginner or you have been investing for many years, I think you are going to learn a tremendous amount from this book and almost certainly come away a better investor and thinker.
That is why these early reviews mean so much to me. When readers tell me they have never seen an investing book structured or written quite like this, it makes all of the work feel worth it because “different” and “never done before” was exactly what I was trying to create.
I am hoping the finished book will be out around Christmas. But if you subscribe to me here on X, you do not have to wait because I am sharing finished chapters with my subscribers. I cannot wait for everyone else to finally see what I have been working on so very diligently. 🌹
4
2
55
5,526
