Founder of @harecrypta | Researcher with Alpha | Trader @lighter_xyz @variational_io @polymarket | Builder of the UnderTaker @harecrypta_ai
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Four Variational eights
- In China, 8 sounds like 发, to get rich.
- Beijing opened the Olympics on 08.08.08 at 8:08 pm
- people pay extra for phone numbers and plates full of eights
- one 888 on a price chart is enough for a Chinese trader to call it a sign.
- Turn an 8 on its side and you get infinity, which is roughly how long I've been farming this.
✅ When the trading API and public mainnet open before TGE, bots bring volume and the same 150k gets split across much more of it
The cheapest points are the ones you farm before the API.
After that, farming turns into hard mode.
This is my Nansen & The Undertaker Meridian entry by @nansen_ai
✅ liquidation map for $BTC $HYPE or any tokens, grouped by price, longs and shorts, named money in blue
✅ whose money is behind a prediction market price, split by wallet win rate, unexamined holders counted on neither side
✅ the same Nansen call answered in chat and drawn on screen from one dictionary, so the picture and the words cannot disagree
✅ every call logged: endpoint, outcome, milliseconds, credits
Demo video 👇
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Trading right now on Variational, today!
Your last chance to enter into allocation $VAR (OMNIREN code)
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
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idea + will + passion
In the age of vibecoding and AI tools that do almost anything, the people who come out ahead are just the ones who aren't lazy and have an idea they care about.
I agree the frontier human is the bottleneck. I don't agree the tail stays small.
A frontier human isn't a genius or a PhD. It's someone with a question they won't drop, who gets an answer and asks the next one.
The tools used to decide who could build. Now they don't.
That's why the pool of people who actually hit the limits of a cheap model keeps growing.
Cheap models don't eat the tail. They're the ramp to it.
The shortage moved from GPUs to people, yes. But that shortage isn't talent, it's will.
Will scales better than we think.
It is not necessary to have the demand for intelligence capped by IQ
People are going to realize it takes a frontier human to extract productivity out of a frontier model, and there is simply not enough frontier human to compensate for the capex relying on revenue from training frontier models (yes if you remove training compute demand the whole thing is unprofitable already, and that’s before token price depreciation). Put it simply, demand for intelligence isn’t infinite and is in the shape of a bell curve, and cheaper models are slowly eating their way into the bell curve, leaving frontier training cost rely on a smaller and smaller tail of intelligence demand. In the end you are left with a billion dollar training run which only use is to solve Navier Stokes, because all the other tasks that are useful for the current economy can be run on cheaper models
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GM X!
Current flipping positions on Variational this morning
✅ $META
Muse is near 700k daily users and Wall Street started counting the revenue. Want to see $1000
✅ ethereum:0xfaba6f8e4a5e8ab82f62fe7c39859fa577269be3
launched portfolio tokens built on BlackRock strategies yesterday.
✅ $CRWV
JPMorgan upgrade on contract demand, shorter contracts for higher margins.
✅ $ZRO
trading infrastructure for tokenized markets since August, the RWA perp trade runs through it
✅ solana:Grass7B4RdKfBCjTKgSqnXkqjwiGvQyFbuSCUJr3XXjs
$14.5m revenue in the first half, a DePIN that reports income
✅ ethereum:0x6033f7f88332b8db6ad452b7c6d5bb643990ae3f
chain shutdown with a bridge deadline in October, the supply squeeze did +12% in a day
✅ $MINA
Mesa hard fork doubled it this month, now sitting on resistance, my entry is above mark
What is superfluous, or what should be added?
This is my Nansen & The Undertaker Meridian entry by @nansen_ai
✅ liquidation map for $BTC $HYPE or any tokens, grouped by price, longs and shorts, named money in blue
✅ whose money is behind a prediction market price, split by wallet win rate, unexamined holders counted on neither side
✅ the same Nansen call answered in chat and drawn on screen from one dictionary, so the picture and the words cannot disagree
✅ every call logged: endpoint, outcome, milliseconds, credits
Demo video 👇
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The Undertaker has more features than users right now. 😁
A new image model Ming Image landed and It went into my AI agent today.
Zero price, it is free for now.
Ming Image 0.1 Design Layer by @TheInclusionAI takes one flat picture and returns it as separate transparent PNGs: background, foreground, text.
Not a cutout. Layers.
How it works
✅ Send a picture, inline buttons appear, tap To layers
✅ Three RGBA files come back in under a minute
✅ The agent warns once that the free endpoint probably trains on what you send
What else layers are good for killer features:
- Fixing text in AI-generated images without regenerating the whole thing.
Think signage, labels, packaging, or buttons on mockups.
- Merchandise. If you get merch orders, you have the assets ready: a separate text layer for embroidery, a foreground layer for printing and a background that can be discarded.
- etc...
- The Undertaker has more features than users right now.
- I use it every day and I am still looking for my PMF, the one thing a stranger would pay for.
- So every model that ships goes in the same evening, and I watch what I reach for twice.
The fastest transcription is the one that never runs.
My community AI agent The Undertaker handles media now, and every design decision in it is about avoiding work rather than doing it faster.
telegram.me/harecrypta_diges…
1. Someone drops a YouTube link and wants the text:
✅ first move is checking whether the video already has captions. If it does, there is no transcription. No audio pulled, no model called, no quota spent, text in a second
✅ no captions? Then only the audio track gets downloaded. Nobody needs 600 megabytes of pixels to read what was said
✅ the audio gets split on silence, not on a timer, so words don't get cut in half at chunk boundaries and stitched back wrong
2. Someone wants 45 seconds from the middle of an hour long video
✅ the cut happens at the source. Three seconds, a 3 megabyte file, and the other 59 minutes were never touched
3. The boring constraint everyone hits:
most Telegram bots die at 20 megabytes. Mine goes to 2 gigabytes, so an hour and 48 minute recording comes back as a full transcript with timecodes instead of an error.
The cheapest call is the one you skip for media influencers.
(my own AI agent backed by any LLM Claude, ChatGPT or Deepseek)
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Variational has a third of Lighter's daily traders and 90% of its volume.
That is not a growth problem. That is who the airdrop goes to.
✅ still invite only
✅ no API
✅ points went out before the crowd
- 31% of all points sit with under 9k early accounts.
✅ RFQ with an OLP counterparty, not a CLOB.
✅ the August rewards went to 10,000 pre-selected addresses.
Numbers instead of vibes
✅ Lighter at public launch
- 188k accounts
- 50k daily active
- $13.3b weekly volume
- S2 added 500k more and the December clawback called most of them sybil
✅ Variational today
- 17.3k daily active
- $11.7b weekly volume
✅ 32% genesis at the $1.76b FDV that Pascal prices today is $562m.
- Over 11m points that is $51 a point
- OTC best ask $50, sitting right on the prediction market number.
Best bid $30, largest bid $1m at $21.
Fewer wallets, same volume, bigger slice each.
That is the whole thesis and it is why 5-figure airdrop is arithmetic here, not hopium.
With a 32% airdrop and an FDV of $1b (Polymarket assigns about a 66% probability to the $1B mark), the allocation for points amounts to $320m.
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMN…
Given a pool of 11–11.5 million points, this works out to approximately $28–29 per point after dilution.
This is a calculation based on assumptions, not a forecast.
polymarket.com/event/variati…
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Rencrypta.eth retweeted
Biggest cluster litecoin:native by @nansen_ai :
$930.2K between $95.51 and $97.77
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This is my Nansen & The Undertaker Meridian entry by @nansen_ai
✅ liquidation map for $BTC $HYPE or any tokens, grouped by price, longs and shorts, named money in blue
✅ whose money is behind a prediction market price, split by wallet win rate, unexamined holders counted on neither side
✅ the same Nansen call answered in chat and drawn on screen from one dictionary, so the picture and the words cannot disagree
✅ every call logged: endpoint, outcome, milliseconds, credits
Demo video 👇
$BTC went from $75k to $87k in six days.
I asked my AI agent The Undertaker where the next cascade sits.
Not a forecast. A map of other people's stops. Any liquidation map ($ETH or etc)
Nansen returns every open leveraged position on a token with its liquidation price and the bot groups them by level.
Red is longs, green is shorts, the dashed line is the current price.
Three things
✅ Draw positions that have no liquidation price.
It names how many were left off, because a map of 5 of 6 is a different map from 6 of 6
✅ Draw an empty map. Zero bars look like a measurement
✅ Call it a prediction.
The caption says these are levels of other people's stops
You can take a look at the GitHub repository with 17 scenarious for Nansen & The Undertaker integration.
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Code: github.com/RenatMursalimov/n…
A map of other people's stops, not a forecast.
telegram.me/harecrypta_diges…
Which side of $92 breaks first?
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GM X!
I roam through abandoned villages and remote corners of the Perm region, the very edge of civilization.
✅ Contessa did $8b of volume on Variational and lost $6.36M doing it.
- My own swaps numbers against that this morning, the competition closes tonight.
Volume $3.00m
PnL + $70
Rank 525
The competition ranks by PnL × √volume.
✅ Currently in a 3-token flip on @variational_io
$MINA celestia:native $METEORA
.
✅ Kalshi's margin filing lists political events as eligible and excludes sports.
- FCMs and self-clearing ECPs only, 45-day review.
- It landed the same week Kalshi confirmed its perp volume is counted at max payout, not cash.
✅ Actively building in the Nansen & The Undertaker, have built a Telegram mini-app featuring a scalable liquidation map covering all tokens.
✅ SoFi settles a $25b card program in its own coin, SoFiUSD, not $USDC.
A bank that issues the stablecoin keeps the reserve yield that Circle paid Coinbase $908m last year to share.
GM X!
Mishka is leaving us. $BTC touched $87k overnight.
✅ Set up my agent AI The Undertaker on Chinese Crypto Twitter. @harecrypta_ai
✅ Treasury Secretary Bessent on CNBC:
It is humans who are responsible, not the AI.
The labs asked for a liability shield. Treasury said no.
✅ Variational is #2 DEX by 24h volume at $3.7b.
if one recalls 40х ratio:
400 points per $1m volume in the pre-points era,
10 per $1m now.
40x decay in nine months
✅ the SEC and CFTC rules will be hard for Democrats to unwind.
A final rule needs a new rulemaking to repeal. A no-action letter needs one signature. Know which one you're standing on.
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Claude Opus 5.5 went into my AI agent menu at 10¢ a call at once.
- Fable 5.1 sits at 20¢
- the Chinese row at 2 to 6¢
- Your deflation chart is my price list.
The cache read cut is the number that matters for a bot. Every message re-reads the same system prompt, so cache reads are the fixed cost of every reply.
$0.50 to $0.20 is a 60% cut on the one line you can't optimize away.
What running your own agent buys you this week
✅ Add the model the day it ships.
No waiting for Hermes or OpenClaw to expose it
✅ Show the user what each call costs before they pick.
I haven't seen anyone else do this
✅ You route. I put Jev in front of the menu as an experiment
cheap questions go to the 2¢ row, hard ones to Opus 5.5.
Thinking can't be switched off in 5.5, which is exactly why you don't send it a "gm"
✅ 5.5 follows the writing rules you hand it.
My The Undetaker @harecrypta_ai runs on a persona file with hard bans.
Fewer violations, fewer regens
Wow, big intelligence jump in Opus 5.5 coupled with a huge price cut, especially on cache reads! 60% discounted cache reads compared to Opus 5.
Seems like the economic frontier is getting paced by the Chinese labs.
Bullish all this competition. The price of frontier intelligence keeps deflating.
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$HYPE trades at $97 with $299m of short liquidations sit between $102 and $145 by Nansen.
Nansen & The Undertaker
I wrote the spec for this telegram mini-app yesterday at lunch. It went live tonight.
Three screens on Nansen data, no dashboard, no new tab.
✅ Liquidation map:
$1.00b across 45 HL positions.
Longs $442m below the price, shorts $560m above it. The densest cluster starts 7% up.
Not a forecast, a map of other people's stops
✅ Whose % by Polymarket market:
- tap a Polymarket market and see how much of the money belongs to wallets that were right before.
- One market: 58% of examined money with sub-40% win rates.
- Another: 9%. The price alone can't tell you which
✅ Live calls:
every request in the frame with its cost and its age. Nothing here is a screenshot
The mini-app draws the exact dict the bot speaks.
Under every chart sits the bot's chat reply, verbatim. If they ever disagree, a test goes red.
Built for @nansen_ai Meridian.
$BTC went from $75k to $87k in six days.
I asked my AI agent The Undertaker where the next cascade sits.
Not a forecast. A map of other people's stops. Any liquidation map ($ETH or etc)
Nansen returns every open leveraged position on a token with its liquidation price and the bot groups them by level.
Red is longs, green is shorts, the dashed line is the current price.
Three things
✅ Draw positions that have no liquidation price.
It names how many were left off, because a map of 5 of 6 is a different map from 6 of 6
✅ Draw an empty map. Zero bars look like a measurement
✅ Call it a prediction.
The caption says these are levels of other people's stops
You can take a look at the GitHub repository with 17 scenarious for Nansen & The Undertaker integration.
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Code, proofs, tests: github.com/RenatMursalimov/n…
AI agent
telegram.me/harecrypta_diges…
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$BTC went from $75k to $87k in six days.
I asked my AI agent The Undertaker where the next cascade sits.
Not a forecast. A map of other people's stops. Any liquidation map ($ETH or etc)
Nansen returns every open leveraged position on a token with its liquidation price and the bot groups them by level.
Red is longs, green is shorts, the dashed line is the current price.
Three things
✅ Draw positions that have no liquidation price.
It names how many were left off, because a map of 5 of 6 is a different map from 6 of 6
✅ Draw an empty map. Zero bars look like a measurement
✅ Call it a prediction.
The caption says these are levels of other people's stops
You can take a look at the GitHub repository with 17 scenarious for Nansen & The Undertaker integration.
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Rencrypta.eth retweeted
It just takes the will to act from @opensea team that’s all there is to it.
Opensea gets in average $20k in daily revenue works out to $10 million a year, apply a 30x multiple and that implies an FDV of $300m.
I understand that OpenSea is wary of such a low valuation, but in my opinion, there’s nothing to fear, they just need to launch.
It’s a matter of making a decisive move.
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$BTC went from $75k to $87k in six days.
I asked my AI agent The Undertaker where the next cascade sits.
Not a forecast. A map of other people's stops. Any liquidation map ($ETH or etc)
Nansen returns every open leveraged position on a token with its liquidation price and the bot groups them by level.
Red is longs, green is shorts, the dashed line is the current price.
Three things
✅ Draw positions that have no liquidation price.
It names how many were left off, because a map of 5 of 6 is a different map from 6 of 6
✅ Draw an empty map. Zero bars look like a measurement
✅ Call it a prediction.
The caption says these are levels of other people's stops
You can take a look at the GitHub repository with 17 scenarious for Nansen & The Undertaker integration.
The simplest and most in-demand features, no unnecessary complications!
Discuss trends and coins on Telegram public group, get live, real-time charts right in the chat (or dm) and see Nansen analytics and breaking news instantly!
You can do all of this using my agent The Undertaker, integrated with @nansen_ai .
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GitHub repository for Nansen & The Undertaker CLI integration
github.com/RenatMursalimov/n…
My AI agent
telegram.me/harecrypta_diges…
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