BTC ~$81.1k · MSTR $153.92 (after that +16% day)
My base case into Sept 30:
• BTC: $78–84k (~45%) — mode ~$80–82.5k
• MSTR: $140–165 (~42%) — mode ~$148–158
Bulls need follow-through above $81.7k / $165. Bears still have a clean path if $80k or MSTR’s ~$136–137 reclaim fails.
Watch: ETF flows, Sep 25 expiry / quarter-end, and PCE+GDP on Sep 30 8:30 ET.
Not financial advice. Short-horizon odds are noisy.