Chief Meteorologist KATC Lafayette, LA - Weather for Acadiana/S LA. Forecasting for Gulf Coast since 1985. 2020 Tropical Weather Conference Broadcaster of Year.
Lafayette, LA
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Temperature forecast or Acadiana and South Louisiana for the next 48 hours. #lawx #AcadianaWeather #FirstAlert #ANF
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For those that are following the Google Deep Mind Model, the latest suite continues to be to the right of the current NHC Forecast Track...which remains the standard we continue to follow given all the other tropical guidance accompanied by NHC human anaylsis.
Isaias is expected to be near a Category 2 at landfall and may max out to as a higher end 2 or near Cat 3 Friday (Google median max is 108 mph...jst 3 mph short of a Cat 3) prior to some slight weakening prior to landfall into Friday evening.
For Louisiana, notice the 1000 Deep Mind simuations do not have the state in the crosshairs, and in Acadiana, I'm just expecting a breezy one Friday/Friday, and very little if any precipitation with this system...many times in previous scenarios we have not even seen a drop of rain! #lawx #Isaias
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Isaías MIDDAY UPDATE: Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge watches are up for a North Gulf Coast landfall Friday evening, perhaps as a Category 2 storm.
Here's the latest GRAF Model compared to the current forecast track of Isaías. While the GRAF latest run is roughly 40-50 mi west of the official forecast track at landfall, this will give you an idea on potential wind gust and rain impacts near and east where the center makes landfall.
GRAF Model experience with hurricanes has been fairly accurate regarding the higher end gusts...which in this case may be displaced 40-50 mi or more east of what the current run is depicting...just to give you an idea on the numbers and impacts ahead...remember it's a model, not necessarily what will actually happen.
It should be noted that the Google Deep Mind model has been a little farther east than the official NHC track...so all conditions you see here are expected to be displaced at least 40-50 mi or more eastward at this time. #lawx #Isaías
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ANF First Alert: Latest National Hurricane Center Advisory and Forecast Track. #lawx #AcadianaWeather #FirstAlert #ANF
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Current Acadiana temperatures and "feels-like" readings. #lawx #AcadianaWeather #FirstAlert #ANF #LAwx
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Current Acadiana temperatures and "feels-like" readings. #lawx #AcadianaWeather #FirstAlert #ANF #LAwx
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Hurricane Tirivia: For those who have been asking about the name "Isaías"...it replaced Hurricane Ike back in 2008, and has been on the 6 year rotation ever since....last being a storm that impacted the East Coast in the hyperactive year of 2020!
The name was not retired in spite of doing 5 billion dollars in damage and responsible for 17 fatalities...but the bar for retirement the big bad storm names is higher now.
The names get recycled every 6 years, and represent areas where Atlantic Basin hurricanes impact, which includes American, Hispanic, and Caribbean French and Dutch names.
The "I" storm by the way, is the most retired name in the Atlantic catalogue, hopefully this won't be either, but it will likely be a memorable one for those impacted either way. 2020 Isaías pictured here.
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Latest 10 Day for Acadiana shows minimal impacts from what is expected to be Hurricane Isaias with at worst, some gusty winds and perhaps some wrap around tropical showers for our area Friday night into Saturday...
If the storm makes landfall per the NHC/Google Deep Mind Model near or between MS, AL, or FloraBama, we probably won't see a drop of rain and just a pleasant breeze Friday into Saturday.
All the big weather with this system will be near and well to the east of its landfall, which looks to be Friday evening now.
We are however, hedging our bets for some possible tropical rain bands some some gusty winds for now for Acadiana into Saturday.
Stay with KATC/ANF for the latest should we see a major shift from the consistency we've seen today. #lawx #Isaias
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Latest Google Deep Mind Tropical Model continues to focus on a MS/AL/W'rn FL Panhandle landfall and is a little east of the NHC gudiance from earlier today.
Of note, the Google Model's median max wind forecast is for 108 mph (Cat 2), while the more recent NHC tropical intensity models are backing this potential up putting this system well into Cat 1 and edging in to Cat 2 range.
Trouble ahead and east of where this system makes landfall.
Again minimal impacts for Acadiana but it could certainly be a breezy/windy day Friday...extreme SE LA (Plaquemines Parish) could see hurricane conditions (wind, rain, and surge flooding). #lawx #Isaias
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Temperature forecast or Acadiana and South Louisiana for the next 48 hours. #lawx #AcadianaWeather #FirstAlert #ANF
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