ex-tradfi | toolmaker | playing with Schrödinger profits

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poverty has actually always meant lack of ability to harness and channel energy no age will put this on grand display more than ours
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the timeline is fawning over opus 5.5 but interestingly 5.5-level prowess was supposed to be delivered in opus 4.8
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rustynode retweeted
Good programmers state they use models like GPT 6 Astra without obtaining good results: it makes me feel I live in a parallel universe. But the explanation is not that hard: good programming in the past and now requires a different skill set, even if there is some overlap.
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rustynode retweeted
INTEL: KYC should collect less personal data and use zero-knowledge proofs to verify compliance without revealing names, income or addresses, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce says
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rustynode retweeted
DoubleZero Edge now carries data from @HyperliquidX. Streams are entirely uncapped, every market, every order, the full L4 book including HIP-3. Introducing the first-class path to Hyperliquid’s order book, and the fastest commercially available feed on the market.
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rustynode retweeted
Stop caring so much about model releases. Focus on the harness, and improving the environment your agent operates in. You'll find yourself far ahead of the curve.
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insane
I finally tested GPT-6 Sol on a real work. 2 repos. 105 hidden bugs. Find and fixed what you can. It looks like a huge degradation. The results: - GPT-6 Astra (max): 45 - GPT-5.6 Sol (max): 43.5 - Opus 5.5 (max): 41.7 - Muse Spark 1.3 (max): 32.2 - GPT-6 Sol (max): 29.3 Until you measure the cost (API-equivalent): - GPT-6 Astra (max): $33.04 - GPT-5.6 Sol (max): $95.25 - Opus 5.5 (max): $58.53 - Muse Spark 1.3 (max): $18.11 - GPT-6 Sol (max): $9.93 More effort levels (xhigh, high, medium, low) dropping in this thread today 🧵
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rustynode retweeted
Just a reminder that GLM 5.3 Flash, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, Qwen 3.8 Next Flash, and even Qwen 3.8 27B are all outperforming (in both intelligence and capabilities) every model that was considered "frontier intelligence" in Xmas 2025 (just 10 months ago) Opensource AI is on fire
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KOLs are basically predators you offer a leg so you get to be a cripple in Valhalla Best part is the fine print says "no guarantees should be assumed..." so goblin town forever is just as likely as Valhalla after you've made a deal
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gpt-sol-5.6-xhigh is yet to clock in one bad day since usage personally ymmv
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rustynode retweeted
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC permits developers to build passive derivatives software without registering as brokers, including for crypto markets.
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my annual subs coming due always remind me that 1 yr [12 months] is not such a long time
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Since 10:00 UTC today more than 3900 @koolkrypto223 style paired RFQ spreads have been purchased at @DeriveXYZ
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im curious about the worldview and future outlook of the counterparty to this trade
Just bought 8600 5000/7000 ETH call spreads for march 2027 Basically if ETH is below 5k by then we lose $238k But if ETH goes anywhere higher, we make all the upside on 8,600 ETH At $6k that's $8.3M profit At $7k that's $17M profit 1x downside, 71x upside. Perps could never provide this because - to get 8.6k eth exposure I'd need like $4M in collateral (5x perp) - Even with a 5x perp if eth dips to just 1.9k I'd be liquidated and lose it all before the expire - If funding rates are 10% it would cost me over $1M in funding fees to hold the position until late march Instead I paid $238k all in and never need to spend another cent ty for the copy trade @koolkrypto223 it just took 10 minutes on the @DeriveXYZ RFQ system note: dcf cap holds drv (and these spreads)
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rustynode retweeted
bitcoin:native There's almost always a disconnect between how CT is trading BTC and what's happening in tradfi You never know when the two reconnect. You never know which side is right, or which way the reversion runs. So timing it is difficult But the disconnect is always there. Working out which side is offside is where I find my edge, and even when that edge only stops me going with the crowd into a bad trade, that's still edge Most people talk about the trades they took. The ones you don't take matter just as much Worked example, flagged at the time 👇 Post the liquidation event that forced BTC toward 80k, FOMO carried it to 82k. CT was calling continuation everywhere Meanwhile liquidity was tightening globally and financial conditions with it. Yields higher. Oil higher. JPY strengthening. Every tradfi signal pointing the same way BTC is a liquidity indicator. It doesn't get to ignore that forever Same framework applies into this week
bitcoin:native $USDJPY Couple things worth considering on BTC right now First, after a large liquidation event either direction, common to see a period of consolidation follow, narratives aside, thats just typical post liq behaviour Second, BTC is a proven liquidity indicator. Yields are rising globally, if financial conditions also tighten its going to be hard for BTC to sustainably rally. More likely goes the other way, thats been the pattern every time its been tested Where to? based on Sept seasonality an early pullback towards 72-74k wouldnt be out of the question So be wary of chasing the dragon whilst liquidity conditions are tightening. Or more appropriately wait until yields fall and conditions actually loosen. Thats your long trigger Separately, USDJPY straight down and its not broad USD weakness, Nikkei falling alongside it. Yen strength AND equities falling together is the signature of tightening, not dollar weakness. BOJ Sept hike odds now 80-90% depending on the desk, up from ~65% three weeks ago, plus Warsh's hawkish JH turn feeding in Same tightening signal as the BTC point above, just showing up in two markets at once
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this coordination btw llms and code has been simmering for a while in many forms like @DSPyOSS interesting to see this new form and the efficiency gains simply cant escape code
After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI? I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev • 20-200x faster • 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free) • Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
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when the dev returns for one more rug before xmas
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: There are ways to do $5,000 checks without affecting deficit.
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rustynode retweeted
I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances. What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation. Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture. It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off. Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle. It starts with METR. Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models. He proposes METR for this purpose. But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock. Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio. And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem. This stock was worth $500 million early last year. It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later. METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth. Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well. But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much. The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all. The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll. If this were the end of it, that's bad. But that isn't all. The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom. The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others. They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's. All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile. As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder. Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created. From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts. This itself is an objective fact. The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it. But the problem also goes in the other direction: If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die. Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen. Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly. They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic. And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly. What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations. The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture. And that feedback loop is winning. That's what Jacob Coxon is. China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China. America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level. Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences. Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully. It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America. Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear. Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers. Congress must investigate. Evidence and Github in next post. Then some supplementary figures.
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rustynode retweeted
Transaction V1 (SIMD-0385) is live on mainnet-beta. Max transaction size grows from 1,232 to 4,096 bytes. ZK proofs, large multisigs, BLS signatures, and confidential transfers that required multiple transactions now fit in one atomic operation. V1 also moves resource requests (compute unit limit, priority fee, loaded accounts data size, heap size) into the transaction header instead of compute budget instructions.
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the only riskless trade in our current memecoin-stock pairing meta is the mint/redeem arbitrage and only authorized participants like Robinhood and Backpack are able to execute it
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