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On June 13, Polymarket removed the taker delay for all World Cup matches. Here's what a goal looks like without it for the ARG win market at the 85' mark:
- 13,848 shares were resting within 5¢ of the ask when the ball crossed
- 90% of all cancels occurred within 65ms of each other
- First post-goal taker order lands 63ms behind the cancels and picks off less than $800
- Total sniped on a 3x book move: <$1,000 (600+ total active maker addresses, 11 adversely filled)
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We made claude.ai 3x faster in two weeks.
Here’s how we use Claude to measure, debug and improve performance. Prompts and methods included.
claude.dev/blog/how-we-made-…
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How AI-related prediction markets reacted to Dario's memo:
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
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Over the past month, Rothera’s trade count doubled while volume stayed flat, cutting average trade size in half.
This more closely tracks behavior on Polymarket than Kalshi. On Polymarket, trade count outpaces volume, while on Kalshi, trade count and volume has been scaling almost 1:1.
Rothera (Robinhood + SIG's prediction market) is processing less than half the volume and fewer than half the trades it saw on opening day of the World Cup.
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1 in 3 @world_xyz wallets has a positive realized PnL.
The median wallet has a PnL of -$2.00
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In less than 4 seconds, 44 unique makers on Polymarket lost $19k to 6 takers.
First trade: 1.44 seconds after LeBron's tweet
Crossed 50¢: 2.26 seconds
Reached 99¢: 3.98 seconds
First-come, first-served markets create zero-sum latency races that degrade long-term liquidity. This market structure is inherently taker-favored: makers must remove stale quotes before anyone else in the world can take them. Because they can be picked off during every major repricing event, they are forced to quote wider and provide less depth.
Exchanges want volume and to lead price discovery. But knowing LeBron chose Philadelphia four seconds earlier provides zero value to most users and imposes negative externalities on the traders creating the prices that observers consume.
Different market structures (batch auctions, maker-prioritized cancels) trade off marginally slower re-pricing during rare news events with deeper liquidity throughout the rest of the market.
another championship.
I believe I can help make the Philadelphia 76ers a championship team and I am so excited to energize a new fan base and start this incredible journey one last time.
Thank you LA. Miami I’ll forever love and Northeast Ohio will always home!
🙏🏾🫡👑
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RECORDED: Elon Musk predicts Grok 4.7 release in "3-4 weeks." ⚖️
We have matched this to the nearest available date in actively traded markets.
Grok 4.7 is significantly better than 4.6 and should be ready in 3 to 4 weeks.
Initial training is complete and now we’re adding a massive amount of SpaceX company data in supplemental training. This will be something special.
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Market makers earned $790K while takers lost $925K in Polymarket’s LeBron Next Team markets.
The $135K difference is Polymarket's fee revenue, excluding rebates. Polymarket also spent ~$65K on liquidity incentives to makers.
Makers can profit even in markets where many think adverse selection should make liquidity provision unprofitable.
I thought I was done when the season ended. I wasn't ready to announce it, and I knew I needed some time to really decide, but I was pretty sure I played my last game. I was honest at that last press conference when I said I needed to look at myself and deicide if I still love
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You can easily tell who is a real user trading on the platform based on on-chain data if a user's transaction includes relay.link
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RECORDED: Newsom predicts a Sayed victory for Michigan Senate. ⚖️
Congratulations @AbdulElSayed on a hard-fought victory!
Trump and the GOP are trying everything to rig the rules and silence voters — but they can’t stop a Democratic Party united around working people and accountability.
On to November! Let’s take our country back.
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For a 50c event contract, a non-Gold Robinhood user’s effective entry price is 53c. A Robinhood Gold user’s effective entry price is 51.75c.
Because Robinhood owns the prediction-market brokerage and co-owns Rothera, the exchange, with SIG, it generates revenue from both brokerage and exchange fees. On a non-Gold user’s 50c trade, the brokerage generates 2.5c while the exchange generates another 0.5c.
Spreads today are extremely wide on Robinhood, because the fee structure leaves SIG as effectively the only feasible market maker. At 50c, Rothera charges professional trading firms 3c per contract versus 0.75c for "designated market makers". This creates a 4x disadvantage that favors select firms such as SIG.
Prediction markets generated $156M of transaction revenue for Robinhood on an estimated $6.8B of cash volume. Cash equities, excluding options PFOF, generated only $129M on $956B. Prediction markets therefore produced 21% more revenue on just 0.7% as much volume, representing a roughly 170x higher revenue yield per dollar traded.
Options remain Robinhood’s largest source of transaction-based revenue, driven by PFOF from its large retail user base. Over time, increased competition and improved liquidity have compressed spreads and per-trade economics.
Prediction markets similarly benefit today from high fees, concentrated liquidity, and users with limited alternatives. As more market makers provide liquidity and users gain access to competing venues, fees and spreads will compress. These economics are an early-market anomaly, not a durable equilibrium.
Robinhood now makes more transaction revenue from prediction markets than from either stock or crypto trading... Prediction market take rates are massive, 170x higher than stocks per $1 traded
For every $1,000 traded, Robinhood generates roughly:
Stocks: $0.13
Options: $1.47
Crypto: $2.50
Prediction markets: $23.00
Prediction markets currently monetize about 16× better than options, 9× better than crypto, and 170× better than stocks.
These are assumptions for Options and Prediction markets, but I think they are conservative.
Options assumes an average premium of $300 per contract. Prediction markets assume an average trading price of 50¢ per contract.
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