Editor-in-chief of @WorksinProgMag. Editor at @StripePress and head of publishing at @stripe.

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I had not realised before that the Bronze Age Collapse was literally *caused* by iron. Bronze age powers like the Egyptians, Hittites and Babylonians used bronze weapons, made by combining copper and tin. Tin was so scarce that only the richest and most powerful groups could access it and the bronze weapons it allowed. (Tin was so rare that it was being transported from Cornwall to the Middle East more than 1000 years BC.) The scarcity of tin gave these empires a near-monopoly on violence. Iron weapons are not actually any better than bronze ones – they're not stronger or easier to work with, as I'd assumed. They're just much, much easier to mass produce once you have bloomeries, which are the first furnaces that were hot enough to melt iron in a way that made them useable for weapons. Bloomeries meant that iron ore, which was widespread, could be used to make weapons anywhere. That led to warlords, bandits and city-states rising in a massive decentralization of military power, which the Bronze Age empires were unable to resist. After the invention of the bloomery, skeletons show a measurable increase in weapon-inflicted injuries. 'Destruction layers' with bones and signs of burning have been found from this time at archaeological sites including Troy. Ancient writers – including Herodotus, Ovid, and the writers of the Old Testament – believed the invention of iron had unleashed a new age of violence. New at Works in Progress, WEAPONS OF MASS DECENTRALIZATION: how iron itself brought about the Bronze Age Collapse. And what technologies could do the same today? worksinprogress.co/issue/wea…
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Sam Bowman retweeted
I’m late but loved this piece! I love learning how people figured things out — often even famous “simple” ideas like “Africa and South America fit together” don’t do justice to all the assembled evidence: glaciers, fossils, etc. Or why it was resisted for so long!
When you think about it, isn’t it sort of crazy that the continents drift over time, and used to be joined together as a single landmass around 200 million years ago? What’s even crazier is that this only became consensus in the late 1960s. For the decades leading up to then, it was dismissed by most geologists, and called “Germanic pseudo-science”. It “takes considerable liberties with our globe” wrote one leading geologist. It ignores “awkward, ugly facts” and “plays a game in which there are few restrictive rules.” A brilliant new Works in Progress article by Elizabeth Van Nostrand (@acesounderglass) explains how the theory all came together and what convinced the skeptics. worksinprogress.co/issue/on-… Continental drift was proposed multiple times over history, most famously by Alfred Wegener, who first laid out the theory in 1912 and compiled several lines of evidence: • the coastlines of South America and Africa fitting together • matching geological formations on either side of the Atlantic • glaciers on continents now too warm or too far from the poles to have had ice • fossils of the same species lining up across separate continents but not within them Wegener’s research was dismissed by many experts in part because Wegener did not have a background in geology, though it carried more traction in Europe than America. It gained steam again during the Cold War, from work funded by the US Navy to improve submarine navigation, which led to its rediscovery and rapid acceptance. Now, it is geology’s ‘theory of everything’, explaining volcanoes, earthquakes, mountains, and even geological records of the Earth’s magnetic field. This is On the origin of continents. Read it here! worksinprogress.co/issue/on-…
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If every single UK civil servant (557,825 people) does 100 AI chat sessions a day each and says "thank you" every time, every one of them remembering not to say "thank you" would save £46,000 of electricity a year!
the uk government's official ai guidance tells civil servants to use gemini flash instead of pro, keep prompts short, and not say thank you to it, for the environment i do wonder at which point we forked the road. instead of building and using it to automate the work, we write guidance on how to use less of it we have the attitude of a high school prefect. caring more about the rules than actually doing the work
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This is a fascinating post (and contra my own)!
The original article from @PatRubenFitz is fascinating but Sam's additional claim that iron caused the Late Bronze Age Collapse just doesn't line up. The collapse begins around 1200 BC and at that time, there was very little production of iron even though early iron smelters did exist. The iron that was traded was hematite, an iron that forms in meteors. A couple years back I wrote all about iron in the Late Bronze Age in a piece titled "King Tut's meteorite dagger: A weapon from the heavens" Link: exformation.williamrinehart.…. As I explained: "Tut’s blade is truly a rare piece because the total catalog of Bronze Age irons is so limited. Nearly every piece of Bronze Age Iron is made from meteorite. Axes from Syria and China dating back to about 1400 BC, a Syrian pendant from 2300 BC, a Turkish dagger from 2500 BC, and beads from Gerzeh, Egypt from 3200 BC all have levels of nickel and cobalt that line up with meteorites. Other than this blade, the Ugarit axe from Syria is probably the most well-known Bronze Age iron." The most comprehensive piece I read on the grand sweep of this history is Nathaniel L. Erb-Satullo's "The Innovation and Adoption of Iron in the Ancient Near East" Link: link.springer.com/article/10…. This piece really is required reading. It dispelled my initial thinking that the Collapse caused iron to be adopted. Erb-Satullo frames this as a push model. It is intuitive. Bronze requires tin, which was mined in only some select places including Cornwall, Brittany, and Cyprus. When the large civilizations collapse, those trading routes can no longer be maintained and so iron is adopted instead. But bronze production patterns don't show a clear collapse around this time period. The Cypriot copper industry seems to have expanded. Instead, I think there's better evidence for a pull model where political reorganization made iron attractive. Smaller decentralized polities exploited local iron rather than relying on extended copper and tin trading networks. As I wrote in that King Tut piece, "The significance of minerals in the study of history and political power cannot be overstated. Minerals have shaped human societies and political power in countless ways, from the use of copper and iron in ancient times to oil, rare earths, and silica of today."
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Next Wednesday (Sept 30) in Washington DC, join me and other Works in Progress editors and contributors at the launch party for our next issue. We'd love to see you there! luma.com/tyjgicxs
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In June, I wrote about my excellent experience giving birth with an epidural in @WorksInProgMag and argued that more women should get one. But this month I gave birth to my son without any pain relief, except gas and air. This was unintentional: my labour was so fast that there just wasn’t time. Now that I’ve given birth both with and without an epidural (as many women do), here are some further thoughts: • Labour without pain relief is indeed very painful, as everyone says. Immediately after the birth (and in between some contractions), I told my husband we would need to make sure I have an epidural for any future children. But the more time passes, the more I think I’d be ok without one again, if the labour were as quick as this one was. • Tolerating a much longer labour without proper pain relief feels like a different proposition. I can now better see how important epidurals are for women in prolonged labour just so that they get a chance to rest and sleep. • Some say that pushing without an epidural is easier. I did not find pushing without an epidural significantly easier, but it is true that I could better tell when a contraction was happening. With the epidural, a midwife simply told me when I was having one and that worked well. • Because I hadn’t had an epidural, we were discharged from hospital quickly. This was very nice as we have an older child who we were keen to see. Other than for that reason, I don’t mind hospitals and would have been fine waiting longer. All in all, I’m pleased to have had my son without an epidural. It was a very intense experience, but I was curious about what such a labour would be like (even if I’m not sure I would ever have chosen it for myself) and now I know! For more about epidurals, including my experience using one, how they work, and why so few women get one in countries like the UK and Japan see my article in WiP. worksinprogress.co/issue/the…
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This is awesome!
Happy Friday! Iʼve created a game for you to play! Will AI cure all diseases in 10 years? Inspired by bottlenecks discourse, I created a game to help build your intuitions. Play it here: game.clinicaltrialsabundance… Naturally, it’s bottle-themed with bubbles and there are leaderboards too.
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This is nice, but the truth is that traditional (pre-musical theatre) opera is very very boring. The best way to help people enjoy it would be to put on “the best of opera” nights that just do the highlight songs and drop the terrible 3-hour plots in between them.
Never been to the opera before? Now’s your chance. We’re giving away 70,000 free tickets to the @MetOpera at the iconic Lincoln Center. Go to on.nyc.gov/opera to enter the lottery. There’s not a bad seat in the house.
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I wonder if any of these officials were involved with the pandemic preparation plans pre-2020.
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Sam Bowman retweeted
Doomers want you to believe that widespread iron smelting could literally collapse multiple civilizations and lead to a centuries-long dark age. worksinprogress.co/issue/wea…
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Reading between the lines it seems pretty obvious that Mythos and Fable 5.1 were withheld from the AISI on orders from the Trump administration, rather than because of a decision by Anthropic.
Anthropic withheld latest AI model from UK testing agency ft.trib.al/YZrToLL
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Scoop: The White House has asked OpenAI and Anthropic not to share their AI models with the U.K. government’s testing agency until the models have gone through U.S. testing. “Because they’re American companies and this has been our policy with every new frontier model that comes out,” the senior admin official told me. WH wants this sequence: U.S. review -> secure U.S. systems -> share models with U.S. partners Anthropic appears to have complied but OpenAI has not said if it will. w/ @JoeBambridge1 politico.com/news/2026/09/24…
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I had not realised before that the Bronze Age Collapse was literally *caused* by iron. Bronze age powers like the Egyptians, Hittites and Babylonians used bronze weapons, made by combining copper and tin. Tin was so scarce that only the richest and most powerful groups could access it and the bronze weapons it allowed. (Tin was so rare that it was being transported from Cornwall to the Middle East more than 1000 years BC.) The scarcity of tin gave these empires a near-monopoly on violence. Iron weapons are not actually any better than bronze ones – they're not stronger or easier to work with, as I'd assumed. They're just much, much easier to mass produce once you have bloomeries, which are the first furnaces that were hot enough to melt iron in a way that made them useable for weapons. Bloomeries meant that iron ore, which was widespread, could be used to make weapons anywhere. That led to warlords, bandits and city-states rising in a massive decentralization of military power, which the Bronze Age empires were unable to resist. After the invention of the bloomery, skeletons show a measurable increase in weapon-inflicted injuries. 'Destruction layers' with bones and signs of burning have been found from this time at archaeological sites including Troy. Ancient writers – including Herodotus, Ovid, and the writers of the Old Testament – believed the invention of iron had unleashed a new age of violence. New at Works in Progress, WEAPONS OF MASS DECENTRALIZATION: how iron itself brought about the Bronze Age Collapse. And what technologies could do the same today? worksinprogress.co/issue/wea…
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This piece is a preview article from the next print edition of Works in Progress, which lands early next month. Subscribe now to get your copy! worksinprogress.co/print
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Convincing people in Britain who are worried about AI that the best thing to do is build data centres here seems akin to convincing environmentalists to support nuclear power because it's so safe and green. Necessary, but not easy!
AI is upending the world. The paradox is that to make it safe we - here in the UK - need more of it. More compute and more security. That’s the contribution Britain can make to the Western tech stack, and to the safety and prosperity of our people. dannykruger.substack.com/p/b…
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Sam Bowman retweeted
Some data we recently assembled on entrepreneurship/compute in Europe: eudata.vercel.app. We hope that one of the useful roles that Stripe can play is in collecting and publishing empirical data pertaining to entrepreneurship and industry in Europe. There's growing appetite to get Europe on a better footing, and cross-sectional comparisons can often shine light on where opportunities lie. If you're interested in this kind of thing, we publish more at stripeeconomics.substack.com.
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Legacy media was bronze: high capital costs gave institutions a monopoly on narrative. ​Social media was iron: cheap, ubiquitous distribution stripped gatekeepers of their monopoly, decentralizing narrative power to distributed factions & upending the institutional order.
I had not realised before that the Bronze Age Collapse was literally *caused* by iron. Bronze age powers like the Egyptians, Hittites and Babylonians used bronze weapons, made by combining copper and tin. Tin was so scarce that only the richest and most powerful groups could access it and the bronze weapons it allowed. (Tin was so rare that it was being transported from Cornwall to the Middle East more than 1000 years BC.) The scarcity of tin gave these empires a near-monopoly on violence. Iron weapons are not actually any better than bronze ones – they're not stronger or easier to work with, as I'd assumed. They're just much, much easier to mass produce once you have bloomeries, which are the first furnaces that were hot enough to melt iron in a way that made them useable for weapons. Bloomeries meant that iron ore, which was widespread, could be used to make weapons anywhere. That led to warlords, bandits and city-states rising in a massive decentralization of military power, which the Bronze Age empires were unable to resist. After the invention of the bloomery, skeletons show a measurable increase in weapon-inflicted injuries. 'Destruction layers' with bones and signs of burning have been found from this time at archaeological sites including Troy. Ancient writers – including Herodotus, Ovid, and the writers of the Old Testament – believed the invention of iron had unleashed a new age of violence. New at Works in Progress, WEAPONS OF MASS DECENTRALIZATION: how iron itself brought about the Bronze Age Collapse. And what technologies could do the same today? worksinprogress.co/issue/wea…
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Counterintuitive result that data centre buildout between 2015 and 2024 *reduced* electricity prices in America. “The finding is consistent with economic reasoning: existing large power system fixed costs, economies of scale in transmission and distribution, and declining unit costs for generation imply that durable demand growth lowers average prices.” (This does not mean that post-2024 and/or future buildout will necessarily continue this trend!) arxiv.org/html/2606.19777v1
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The BCG thinks this effect would hold in Britain now if we build more data centres.
Great to see this effect empirically proven with historic US data. We have forecast exactly this effect for the UK going forward. Getting more demand into the system, with data centres being the obvious & most economically additive candidate can bring down electricity prices due to spreading the large fixed costs we have baked in. See our upside case below, £35 annual saving on bills alone comes from greater data centre build out in the UK (if done the right way).
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Psychopaths like terrorists and abusive husbands control their victims like this. They wouldn’t have done it if they didn’t have a good reason.
.@billburr criticizes corporations' reaction to Luigi Mangione's killing of a health care CEO: “The response to the Luigi [Mangione] thing. It wasn’t ‘Maybe we need to look at what we’re doing if it makes some crazy person do this.’ [Healthcare executives’] response was to take their faces off the internet and get security. It’s like, you don’t think you need to examine this? You’re not the president. You’re just the CEO of a business.”
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Baden-Baden is a really beautiful place! I can see the appeal of the German “spa town” now.
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Sam Bowman retweeted
Some dismiss nuclear as a solution because it takes too long to build, but as the Guinness ad point out: "Good things come to those that wait." A single nuclear plant, when finished, will supply more power to the grid than every solar panel in Britain combined.
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