Belated thank you to the @FT for putting “Assad or We Burn the Country: How One Family’s Lust for Power Destroyed Syria” on the list of best 12 books “shedding light on the conflict in #Syria & its place in the wider power struggles across the Middle East” ft.com/content/d889cf00-89e7…

Exports of critical commodities have fallen away. In January, 2.93mn tonnes of limestone travelled through the strait, along with 1.45mn tonnes of sulphur, 1.1mn tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser and 1.74mn tonnes of corn, according to commodities platform Kpler. In August, those numbers fell to zero for limestone, 120,000 tonnes of sulphur, 340,000 tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser and 310,000 tonnes of corn. These include dry-bulk cargo ships travelling to and from Iran giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…

Latest in #UAE’s efforts to reduce Strait of Hormuz dependency: Etihad Rail launches direct cargo service between Fujairah and Abu Dhabi under port partnership #IranWar‌ thenationalnews.com/news/uae…

U.S. and China Discuss System to Warn of A.I. National Security Issues: Speaking after the meetings, which were held at the New York offices of JPMorgan Chase, Mr. Bessent said that the mechanism would be called “the U.S.-China A.I. dialogue” and that it would aim to ensure that the two countries had a shared vision on the goals of A.I. and threats that it poses nytimes.com/2026/09/20/busin… via @NYTimes

Fighting Intensifies in #Yemen as Militia Advances on Key Provinces: Marib is home to some of Yemen’s largest oil and gas fields. Its loss would deal a severe blow to the government’s finances as well as its claim to legitimacy. Marib’s fall would also open a route for the Houthis toward the eastern province of Hadramout, Yemen’s largest, which shares a long border with #SaudiArabia, writes @ismaeelrn nytimes.com/2026/09/17/world… via @NYTimes

EXCLUSIVE: I sat down with Vice President @JDVance on Monday, his first interview following the Republican midterm convention in Dallas. The @VP told the @nypost: “I think the president is right to say that this thing [Iran] will enter a much different phase in a couple of months."

Spoke to @FT about Riyadh’s policy dilemma. “It cannot submit to growing Houthi demands under military pressure, but it also cannot afford an escalation that results in a two-front war that could cost half of Aramco.” Ultimately, “maintaining its ability to produce and export its oil is exponentially more important than victory against the Houthis.” For that reason, and given Houthi caution not to draw in the US, the Saudi - Houthi war will return to one of more managed escalation. ft.com/content/a143e08d-e979…

Pentagon Inspector General Details U.S. Losses and Challenges in Iran War: Helicopters for evacuating casualties were pulled from four countries, and hundreds of military facilities were destroyed, according to a new report nytimes.com/2026/09/15/us/po… via @NYTimes

A new Iran-US ceasefire proposal is on the table. Mediators convene this weekend. Obstacles remain real: Iran’s political fragmentation, and a Trump riding high after squeezing more oil through Hormuz. Trump holds more cards — but Fall refined product shortages could flip the table. More w/@BeckyCNN @EurasiaGroup

The U.S. military said it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in reprisal for attempted strikes by Iran on a U.S. Navy warship…The Revolutionary Guards vowed to retaliate, warning tankers near Kuwait and Bahrain to evacuate their crews nytimes.com/2026/09/08/world… via @NYTimes

A German election result heard around the world via @FT ft.com/content/06f51592-d259…

UAE forces participated in military training in South Korea alongside units of the Korea Army as part of a growing collaboration between the two countries

UAE Strongly Condemns Hostile Iranian Attack on the Country The United Arab Emirates has strongly condemned the hostile Iranian attack on the country involving a drone that was intercepted by air defence systems over UAE territorial waters, in a dangerous escalation that constitutes a flagrant violation of the country’s sovereignty, security, and stability, and poses a direct threat to the safety of its citizens and residents. In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) affirmed that these hostile attacks constitute a dangerous escalation, an unacceptable act of aggression, and a direct threat to the UAE’s security, stability, and territorial integrity, in violation of the principles of international law and the Charter of the United Nations. The UAE emphasized that it will not tolerate any threat to its security and sovereignty under any circumstances, and that it reserves its full and legitimate right to respond to these attacks in a manner that ensures the protection of its sovereignty, national security, territorial integrity, and the safety of its citizens, residents, and visitors, in accordance with international law. The Ministry further underscored that this attack is unequivocally condemned and rejected under all legal and humanitarian norms, stressing the need to immediately halt these attacks and ensure full compliance with the cessation of all hostilities. The UAE holds Iran fully responsible for these attacks and their repercussions.

Economic warfare may be Trump’s most promising path against Iran—but it faces three big obstacles: China: Washington is unlikely to sanction Chinese entities before the Trump–Xi summit next month. Iran’s trade partners: Success requires UAE, Turkey, Iraq, Qatar and Oman to enforce the pressure. The UAE’s recent announcement is a significant step. Patience: Economic strangulation takes time. Lots of it—not exactly President Trump’s defining characteristic. More via @EleniGiokos @cnni @EurasiaGroup

President Sheikh Mohamed sends letter to Saudi Arabia’s King Salman thenationalnews.com/news/uae…

Deadly version of the Battleships game is playing out in Hormuz: Who will win? thenationalnews.com/business…

“Dubai’s non-oil trade with India reached a record Dhs222.5 billion in 2025, representing annual growth of 15%. Bilateral trade has risen by 136.2% over the past decade, up from AED94.2 billion in 2016, reinforcing India’s position as Dubai’s second-largest trading partner” gulftoday.ae/business/2026/0…

My comments to the WSJ’s @georgikantchev in this excellent roundup of the current Hormuz transit estimate debate. As for my estimate: “Johnston’s latest seven-day average of confirmed transits is about 4 million barrels a day, though he expects that to be raised to 5 million to 6 million as ships that made dark crossings turn their transponders back on after they clear the strait and their voyages can be reconstructed.”

Saudi Ministry of Finance has explored plan under which ships & marine cargo assets could obtain cheaper insurance through so-called pool, offering as much as SAR 700mn ($186mn) in commercial cover for each insured event such as seizure or missile attack giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…

The little-known French company trying to unseat Palantir in Europe giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…

Regime change in #Iran still very much on Washington’s mind: “To the ordinary soldiers supporting this regime,” Mr. Bessent said, “as more and more of your paychecks stop or are supposedly just delayed, ask whether your commanders are leading your country to triumph or to ruin, and recall that the Berlin Wall fell when ordinary soldiers decided not to shoot at their own people.” nytimes.com/2026/08/24/us/po… via @NYTimes