Some back-of-the-napkin thoughts concerning the parliamentary dynamics following the 2026 Bosnian general elections.
The legislative results are all over the place in terms of coalition math but the SDA is again the largest party in the country, even though Izetbegovic seems to have lost his second successive run at the presidency.
SDA-HDZ-SNSD + SDP (?) grand coalition perhaps likeliest governing bloc in the state parliament, though as final numbers become clear, there may be a mathematical way to push out Dodik's SNSD. But HDZ will almost certainly seek to obstruct that because of their decades-long alliance with Dodik, so don't count on it.
In the RS assembly, SNSD seems likely to benefit enormously from low turnout, and will almost certainly end up forming government with fewer coalition partners than in 2022.
In the FBiH, senior SDA figures have floated both a SDA-DF-SBiH government and a grand coalition with the SDP. HDZ will probably need to figure into that either way because Schmidt's 2022 election law amendments made them a near permanent fixture of the House of Peoples, and thus FBiH government. Because SDA appears to have performed strongly in both Sarajevo and Tuzla cantons, the SDA-DF-SBiH option is certainly plausible though, with SDP and the Troika out completely.
However, there is one major unknown at this point. Semir Efendic's c. 130,000+ votes for the state presidency likely cost Izetbegovic and/or Kovacevic their respective races. Will either the SDA or DF hold that against Efendic and to what extent? We don't know. I am also tempted to say it's really unclear how Izetbegovic can continue on as SDA boss after a second election in a row in which even his own party's electorate (!) said "no, not you" but he has for so long bucked the laws of political gravity that...?
Still, the major story of the night remains the historically low turnout. Yes, the official figure is inaccurate but it's nevertheless clear the the majority of Bosnians simply did not vote. Alas, do not expect anyone - least of all Dodik and Covic - to take that rebuke seriously. In low turnout elections especially, non-voting is always a de facto vote for the establishment.