Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco@sffed

Serving the western U.S. with a mission to advance the nation’s monetary, financial, and payment systems to build a stronger economy for all. RT ≠ endorsements

 San Francisco
frbsf.org
Joined February 2010
5,795 Photos and videos
Banks have led AI adoption—but what does that mean for lending? A new Economic Letter suggests higher AI usage is linked to higher returns on assets and reduced small business lending—offering early insight into AI's broader economic impacts. sffed.us/46B0W5Q
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The US economy continues to expand at a solid pace, supported by stronger labor productivity. In SF FedViews, Research Advisor Huiyu Li examines inflation, the labor market, market expectations of the policy rate, productivity, and AI's role in the economy sffed.us/4xEFxo9
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The latest Twelfth District Beige Book describes regional economic activity as little changed during the July to mid-August reporting period. sffed.us/beigebook
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Employers largely maintained employment levels, and wages were up slightly. Prices rose modestly, driven by elevated oil prices, tariffs, and higher input costs. Retail sales were stable, while activity in consumer and business services eased slightly.
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Residential real estate activity declined somewhat, while commercial real estate activity was similar to the prior reporting period. Overall lending activity was stable. Contacts maintained a generally soft economic outlook, with similar sentiment to the prior period.
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Employers largely maintained employment levels, and wages were up slightly. Prices rose modestly, driven by elevated oil prices, tariffs, and higher input costs. Retail sales were stable, while activity in consumer and business services eased slightly.
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Residential real estate activity declined somewhat, while commercial real estate activity was similar to the prior reporting period. Overall lending activity was stable. Contacts maintained a generally soft economic outlook, with similar sentiment to the prior period.
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A new Economic Letter finds a modest but asymmetric relationship between expected gas price growth and inflation expectations: upward revisions are associated with higher inflation expectations, while downward revisions have little relationship with them. sffed.us/3UsgTZa
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The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. A new Economic Letter finds that about half the decline reflects a more educated and older workforce, while the other half comes from newer generations with lower unemployment rates. sffed.us/4gpojUd
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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco retweeted
Bloomberg TV
@BloombergTV
Aug 20
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly says the labor market is not currently a major driver of inflation, pointing instead to economic shocks including tariffs, oil prices and the AI investment boom. Watch our full interview here: bloom.bg/4c314Ot
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The natural rate of interest helps gauge the economy's health, but estimates are imprecise. A new Economic Letter proposes a medium-run measure that filters out short-term noise while capturing persistent pressures for clearer policy guidance. sffed.us/4zl2jm9
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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco retweeted
Mary C. Daly@MaryDalyEcon
Aug 14
The U.S. economy faces supply shocks from tariffs, energy, and AI. The key question is whether they fade or reinforce each other, making inflation more persistent. Knowing which path we're on is essential for policy and the Fed’s goals of price stability and full employment.
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The stock-bond correlation has flipped for the first time in decades, suggesting that the source of risk to the economy has shifted to supply shocks. A new Economic Letter examines how correlations between stocks, bonds, and oil prices reveal this shift. sffed.us/45f1bmh
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The latest regional indicators for labor markets and prices are available: sffed.us/4k01FCy The San Francisco Fed monitors regional economic indicators to help achieve the Fed system's maximum employment and price stability goals.
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How did the market react to the latest FOMC meeting? Check out our SF Fed's U.S. Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (USMPD), which collects high-frequency changes of interest rates and asset prices around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication events.
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Learn more about this data series here: frbsf.org/research-and-insig…

U.S. Monetary Policy Event-Study Database - San Francisco Fed

The U.S. Monetary Policy Event-Study Database collects high-frequency changes of interest rates and asset prices around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication events.

frbsf.org
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Job-finding rates have fallen, notably for ages 35-54, college-educated unemployed, and younger nonparticipants. Learn more about why this is contrary to typically strong hiring from unemployment and labor force re-entry in our Economic Letter. sffed.us/4qdysIp
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The labor market appears broadly in balance, but inflation remains elevated. In the latest SF FedViews, Associate Director of Research Thomas M. Mertens examines rising energy prices, core inflation momentum, and shifting interest rate expectations. sffed.us/4hhJzxg
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The latest Twelfth District Beige Book report states that economic activity was somewhat muted but largely stable during the mid-May through June reporting period. sffed.us/beigebook
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Do inflation expectations held by businesses align with those of professional forecasters? sffed.us/4pov2Cc New research finds that firms' views on inflation diverged from forecasters during the pandemic-era surge.
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