26. Am for good things which always falls under the label of liberal, socialist, progressive, or social democratic. Pakistani-American. Alt is @SocDemDem
Denver, CO
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
By October 2018, Beto's favorability had collapsed and Cruz had overtaken him. There's no sign of that happening this year
NYT/Siena polls
2018 vs 2026 | US Senate Texas
Favorables (net)
Republican nominees
β
2018: Ted Cruz: +3
β2026: Ken Paxton: -13
ββ
Democratic nominees
β2018: Beto O'Rourke: -4
β
2026: James Talarico: +9
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
Cohn actuaddressed the kinder electorate in his writeup & said if the 2024 electorate showed up, the senate race would be tied
Can totally buy that the electorate they found is a bit too rosy for Ds, but Paxton only tying in a 2024 electorate is so bad for him π
Here are the demo changes in the NYT Siena polls from AK and TX from June to September
In Alaska: Trump and Sullivan approval/fav dropped a ton and the age breakdown looks more normal
In Texas: Talarico has firmer Black support and seemingly a kinder likely electorate
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
Two years ago, even *conditioning* offensive aid was considered fringe left, now the megachurch pastor wants to end it unconditionally
#KansasSenate
Jewish Insider/Politico: Adam Hamilton (D) calls for ending "offensive aid" to Israel.
Link to article: jewishinsider.com/2026/10/adβ¦
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TEXAS POLL By NYT/Siena (A+)
SENATE
π¦ James Talarico: 51% (+4)
π₯ Ken Paxton: 45% (-2)
ββ
GOVERNOR
π¦ Gina Hinojosa: 49% (+5)
π₯ Greg Abbott (i): 46% (-5)
9/21-30 | LV | (+/- vs June)
nytimes.com/interactive/pollβ¦
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
The Graham Platner who existed entirely within Morris Katz's pitchdeck would've been elected Pharaoh of the United Nations
43% of Maine Democrats and 62% of independents wish someone else were the Democratic nominee instead of Troy Jackson β CBS News Poll
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
looking at the quotes from the most homophobic people on earth being like "banger ad, Steve! this is how you win blue states!" must be how it feels for chuds to see coastal grad students glazing Peltola ads where she shows off her cool guns.
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
being the first one to not really care about religion in a heavily religious family
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Vermontβs got to be dirt cheap for a media market, right? Enough where DGA dropping even a couple hundred thousand could make a huge difference.
DO NOTE though that we do weight by county, so we're already taking this into account.
Anyways, yeah Scott is not going to win by what he usually does it seems.
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
DO NOTE though that we do weight by county, so we're already taking this into account.
Anyways, yeah Scott is not going to win by what he usually does it seems.
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
a leftist who's right about everything but also totally insufferable? ive never met anyone like that in my life
the one annoying thing about going back and watching this movie as a contemporary leftist is that the weird communist peasant that has his own entire scene in which heβs portrayed as totally insufferable is actually just completely right about everything
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Will be so heartbreaking when TX-Gov is decided by like 2 points in favor of Abbott and then looking back at this.
Republicans make up 60% of the $246M in future reservations targeting gubernatorial races.
Here are the most expensive races by linear future reservations:
#OHGov: π΄$27.7Mπ΅$17.9M
#GAGov:π΄$31.8Mπ΅$1.6M
#MIGov:π΅$23.2Mπ΄$1.2M
#TXGov:π΄$23.3Mπ΅$790K
#FLGov:π΄$21.4Mπ΅$1.3K
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For the Texas gerrymander to truly become a βdummymanderβ Democrats would need to win 16 seats on it to qualify.
Thats not going to happen however violently left it swings.
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Is sad how few high quality polls we get nowadays, and how a lot of states are completely devoid of any good pollsters polling, like Nebraska, Colorado, or Florida.
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1 more thing on this is that this may explain Maine polling being bearish on Dems as, unlike the other states, Republicans are outairing Dems far more
Through 9/30, Republicans led Senate battleground broadcast spending by 26%, but led broadcast airings by just 7%.
In #TXSen, a 44% GOP broadcast spend advantage yielded only an 8% broadcast airings advantage.
Dems led broadcast airings in #OHSen and #NCSen despite being outspent in both states.
More: hubs.li/Q04yXmK20
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Crazy that there is no shade of light blue for Talarico, but for Hamilton.
Through 9/30, Republicans led Senate battleground broadcast spending by 26%, but led broadcast airings by just 7%.
In #TXSen, a 44% GOP broadcast spend advantage yielded only an 8% broadcast airings advantage.
Dems led broadcast airings in #OHSen and #NCSen despite being outspent in both states.
More: hubs.li/Q04yXmK20
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Shaz π΅πΈπΊπ¦ retweeted
Through 9/30, Republicans led Senate battleground broadcast spending by 26%, but led broadcast airings by just 7%.
In #TXSen, a 44% GOP broadcast spend advantage yielded only an 8% broadcast airings advantage.
Dems led broadcast airings in #OHSen and #NCSen despite being outspent in both states.
More: hubs.li/Q04yXmK20
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