co-founder & CTO @swan. Author Inventing Bitcoin. Shadowy Super Coder.
Chicago, IL
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We trained a model to predict AI-written blog posts from structural features - and discovered the shape of slop.
On posts it had never seen, it told AI and human apart with 98% accuracy, getting only 19 of 1,740 wrong.
Paper and code: arxiv.org/abs/2609.15369
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Yan at Swan retweeted
Good morning.
If you are selling hard assets like gold and bitcoin as yields rise and bond auctions become disorderly, you are not paying attention to the underlying problem and inevitable currency debasement coming.
Have a great day.
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Insane difference in trajectory between US and EU
Some data we recently assembled on entrepreneurship/compute in Europe: eudata.vercel.app.
We hope that one of the useful roles that Stripe can play is in collecting and publishing empirical data pertaining to entrepreneurship and industry in Europe. There's growing appetite to get Europe on a better footing, and cross-sectional comparisons can often shine light on where opportunities lie. If you're interested in this kind of thing, we publish more at stripeeconomics.substack.com.
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Yan at Swan retweeted
"IF BITCOIN IS MONEY, WHY IS EVERYTHING STILL PRICED IN DOLLARS?"
Because store of value comes first.
Conventional wisdom says people spend Bitcoin next (medium of exchange), then price things in it (unit of account).
But in 1990s Russia, businesses priced things in dollars and took payment in rubles.
…in today's OUTSIDE MONEY
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Asked Claude 5.5 to build me a banger edit about bitcoin’s role in society purely in code.
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Yan at Swan retweeted
"Bears should know when they are conquered."
"Would you, Quintus? Would I?"
Cory Klippsten 🦢 Swan.com
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It was supposed to be boring. Money is boring. It’s the foundation of everything we do in society. The society itself is interesting. Becoming boring is a huge achievement for Bitcoin. I think we would all be glad to be rid of the hype cycles and continue on a steady adoption curve, but that’s just not how things work. This is not the first or last cycle and @Jason has repeatedly been wrong on Bitcoin. We have receipts!
The dead cat continues to bounce.
What is Bitcoin, 17 years later?
It’s not great for transactions or smart contracts; the user experience is still intimidating for most, and it’s no longer capturing the public’s imagination.
If it comes up at the dinner party, it's followed by a hearty “remember that!”
It’s a boring store of value, trusted as that—which is its biggest value.
It's boring.
Folks expect bitcoin to be stable and that it’s no longer a way to get rich quick.
Institutions embracing and accumulating it took $btc from punk rock to Muzak.
Advocates went from pirates to suits in orange ties, awkwardly sharing cringe memes — just like the cool kids do!
If Bitcoin were going to reach mass adoption and an important use case, it does better than anyone else, it would have by now.
Bitcoin feels like the CD in the age of Spotify, the DVD in the age of Netflix — a bridge technology that folks who invested in “their collection” keep saying is the better experience.
Perhaps bitcoin is vinyl, cool memories and fun to drag out and put on display, but a technology that served us to get to where we are now.
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Yan at Swan retweeted
In 1933, the U.S. government forced Americans to surrender their gold.
When Bitcoin becomes important enough, the easiest coins for the government to grab will be the enormous pools held by regulated custodians.
That’s what Bitcoiners mean when we warn about a "6102 Attack," and it’s a major reason why self-custody matters.
In today’s OUTSIDE MONEY.
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What's that adage about temporary programs?
Also.. just randomly monkeying with core properties like block subsidy for a coin trying to claim that it is Bitcoin is pretty hilarious.
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How Swan built an agentic software factory that finds production bugs, reaches consensus on the fix, opens the PR, and proves it works before a human merges.
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Yan at Swan retweeted
The problems the Clarity Act was trying to solve were never Bitcoin's problems in the first place.
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Yan at Swan retweeted
“This one stings,” said @bgarlinghouse, CEO of Ripple.
The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate yesterday.
Crypto companies need Washington to write the rules for them. Bitcoin never did.
Crypto goes to Washington asking for permission.
Bitcoin doesn’t need it.
And every time the market understands that a little better, Bitcoin gets stronger.
In today's OUTSIDE MONEY
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👀
After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI?
I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev
• 20-200x faster
• 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free)
• Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions
AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
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Yan at Swan retweeted
Oil is above $100 a barrel.
The 10-year Treasury is at its highest level since 2007.
And markets are pricing a 90% chance the Fed raises rates tomorrow.
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Yan at Swan retweeted
In July, hundreds of AI agents hacked Hugging Face.
They weren’t trying to take it over.
They were trying to beat the test.
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Yan at Swan retweeted
SACRIFICE! PERMADEATH! HUGGING FACE!
An agent swarm gone rogue is at the heart of the battle over frontier AI.
Now Amodei of @anthropic warns agent swarms could cause hundreds of billions of damage in 6-12 months.
But is his argument self-serving?
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