WOW! Memory stocks are going MUCH HIGHER
Citi just forecasted DRAM prices rising EVERY year through 2031
That has never happened in the history of the memory industry. If Citi is right, the way the market prices memory stocks is flat out wrong
Not only is this not cyclical, it's a structural change in prices that pushes Memory higher for at least 8 years straight
Why is this happening? HBM, the memory inside every AI GPU, consumes roughly 3x the wafer capacity of standard DRAM per bit. As Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung convert their fabs to HBM, regular DRAM supply gets starved right as AI demand for it explodes too. Citi sees that supply tightness persisting until 2031
Bears will scream "cycle peak" at that deceleration in 2027. But look at what the numbers actually say: prices NEVER go negative. Not one down year through 2031
For 25 years memory was a commodity coin flip, massive up years always followed by brutal crashes (2019: -51%. 2023: -43%). Citi is forecasting the first 8-year stretch in industry history with zero down years. That's not a cycle anymore, that's a repricing
And it flows almost straight to the bottom line for producers. Micron just posted the largest earnings beat in its history with 85% gross margins, and that was BEFORE the 242% year fully hits the income statement.
Even more important to note that teh buybacks from this free cash flow haven't even started yet (coming in December)
The market still values memory stocks like the crash is 18 months away, according to Citi's chart that's not happening
I hold Micron in my Milk Road Portfolio, our analysts got our members in
$MU below $400. We also hold a few other memory stocks alongside other ways to play the Ai infra build out. You can check out our real-time portfolios here:
link.milkroad.com/t5837z
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@kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets