115 days since SpaceX IPO
$SPCX is now 36 dollars and 09 cents (~26.7%) above IPO price.
Near term catalysts:
1. SpaceX unlock in 3 days and another one in 18 days , then the big one after Q3
2. Florida regulators vote today on SpaceX's own 32 mile gas pipeline to fuel Starship at the Cape , staff recommends approval
3. Anthropic meets IPO investors in 8 days , roadshow reportedly week of Nov 9 and trading before Thanksgiving at ~1.8-2T. Kalshi has 80% odds of an Anthropic IPO this year
4. Tesla Roadster event in 9 days
5. Starship Flight 15 in ~2-4 weeks , possible first ever ship catch. Morgan Stanley says a ship catch could be the biggest catalyst since the IPO. Flight 16 before year end
6. Tesla Q3 earnings in 15 days , Q3 deliveries 486k already beat estimates
7. SpaceX Q3 results in ~1 month (date not announced yet) , first real look at the AI business , this is where the repricing happens
8. OpenAI raising $30B at a $1.4T valuation. Anthropic and Openai will hype themselves up to aim for a high valuation , this will directly benefit SpaceX as well
9. Morgan Stanley $300 target (street high) , "cheap and getting cheaper" , ~40% cheaper than mega cap AI peers adjusted for growth. Not a single hand went up when Jonas asked 40 clients who owns
$SPCX. Needham $250 , CLSA $250 , TD Cowen $200
10. Elon confirmed talks with TSMC for a Terafab chip fab in Texas , possible TSMC run fab making chips only for Tesla, SpaceX and xAI
11. Compute: recent short term contracts $30-50 per watt vs ~$17.6 consensus across 4.1 GW , every extra $10 per watt is $40B+ in revenue. Google deal hits the full $920M/month this month , Anthropic deals up to $84.5B , Reflection up to $6.3B
12. Elon said another 220k GB300 go live around now , another 220k in November and maybe another 220k by late December
13. Grok 4.8 , 4.9 and Grok 5 coming (no dates yet) , new X + Grok subscription up to $100 Ultra reportedly in the works , SpaceXAI getting renamed SpaceXSI
14. CPI in 8 days , Fed decision in 22 days
15. US + China trade truce extended to Jan 10 2027 , Trump says China will be doubling up what they're buying
16. Oil ~$101 , G7 releasing 100M barrels while Iran keeps turning tankers back in Hormuz
SpaceX ripped 7.6% on Monday to its highest since early July on the Morgan Stanley call , the TSMC talks and a ship catch getting closer. The 10 year yield hit a 24 year high and SpaceX still ripped. Wall Street is starting to wake up but everyone is still sidelined.
Unlock in 3 days , then Roadster , Flight 15 and Q3 results right after. This is the cheapest you will see it for a long time, so buy the fuck out of SpaceX at these levels