This blew up beyond anything I expected.
The responses are surprising too:
40% says that, duh, this is already the reality at my job. Yes, at mine too.
Another 40% agrees with some adjustments and different timelines.
Then 20% disagree. Of those that disagree, some, of course, call me an idiot and that I only build CRUD apps and so on. Not surprising, it's the Internet after all.
But there are two other categories of criticism that I find fascinating.
One is that people say I work on AI and that is why I would predict AI to take over. The shovel seller says you should dig, is the criticism. I get it. But in my case they have the causality backwards: I work on agents, and have done so for nearly two years now, because I thought and still think that this is the biggest lever for developer productivity I've seen in my career. I'm talking about shovels and am in the shovel business because I think everyone should have one, not the other way around.
The other critique is... strange, somewhat: people get offended by the predictions I shared here and get mad at me as if these were not predictions but wishes.
Listen: I do not wish for anyone to be priced out of building software when I predict that some people will be. The weatherman doesn't want it to rain when he says there's gonna be showers on Tuesday.
I'm merely predicting what I think will happen.
I didn't say it's good or bad. I didn't say PMs shouldn't exist or Italian shoemakers.
I'm making a prediction on what I think is going to happen, that's different from wishing what will happen.
That being said: I wasn't always delighted about how things were going. I loved typing out code (I'm faster than you, pal), I loved debugging by hand, I loved my editor and my shell and my color themes. And AI and agents took a lot of that away from me.
But I also hate being inefficient and 1.5yrs ago it became pretty clear to me that to continue writing code by hand will be inefficient and a waste of time. So I adapted.
And now, with the latest generation of models, I'm having a ton of fun again: Fabel and Astra let me do things I never would've done by hand and now they also do the shitty parts and don't leave me to do the remaining shitty 10% to get it shipped.
I'm excited and optimistic and think there's a ton of stuff to build and now we have superpowers that let us build more, faster; superpowers that truly let us shoot for the moon.
Most predictions I see are still way too conservative.
Here's mine