I personally net out somewhere in between (though I suspect that
@zoink and Eric Schmidt) are not that far apart.
I think every application has some Pareto (there's ~20% of the functionality that ~80% of the people care about). The problem today is that any time you add functionality, you have to figure out a way to both expose it and then give persistent control over it. This leads – especially for complex enterprise applications – with just a ton of confusing navs, pages, workflows and worst – baroque settings that are both overwhelming and often not expressive enough.
I do think once we relax the concept that "all functionality needs to be exposed via the UI," we give software the chance to be dramatically simpler. E.g., one of the ways I use Rippling is for the FSA flow. The flow is fine but the overall UI is taxed by having to put it somewhere and then accommodate all the form-filling necessary to complete the request. If I could just forward the receipt to a chat flow and have it ask me for the missing data, it both becomes a simpler flow and relieves so much tension on the UI.
Maybe this will eventually lead to fixing one of my biggest nits of all time, which is that you can only use
@WhatsApp on four devices. I realize this is probably some scalability trade-off someone made and "what normal user would ever need more than four devices," but one can hope. :)
User interfaces are not going away.
Yes, humans will use computers alongside agents. When working with agents, we will need the ability to audit what agents do in a human-readable way.
Yes, some interfaces (ex: dashboards, in-chat UI for ephemeral tasks, etc) will be generated. Most important interfaces will be intentionally designed. We will want both deterministic and non-deterministic interfaces in different situations. We're thinking a lot about the best ways to help designers shape non-deterministic systems at Figma.
Yes, new input modalities like voice, VR/AR and BCI will change the way we use computers and introduce lots of new interaction paradigms. This is all very exciting :)
Overall, the surface area of design will continue to grow much broader. Design is the new code and the key differentiator for software moving forward. Expect more and more energy to go into design / craft in the years ahead... it will be how you win or lose.
Eric is right about plenty of things, but the market will prove him wrong on this one...