Statistics geek, retired from career in finance. Former Visicalc and Lotus 1-2-3 user. Blessed to be a grandpa. Tweets are not investment advice.
Grand Rapids
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Here's 1987. All you hear about is the Black Monday crash. It was up nearly 40% ytd mid August. Gave it all back and then some and ended the year with a gain.
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Speaking of Zweig. This is an amazing story. Liz Ann used to hold her own with Louis Rukeyser as well. She must have been about 23.
I worked for Zweig/Avatar then and Marty (Zweig) perfectly nailed the crash such that we had moved from fully invested in equities in late-August, down to a very low exposure by early October, and then we took advantage of the crash and started buying a week later. Silly me thought (at the time) what’s the big deal? You just figure out beforehand that the market is going to crash, then you move to the sidelines, and then get back in after the crash. Easy peasy, right? Ha.
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"Half of Tuesday’s rise in the Nasdaq was attributable to four chipmaking companies" - Bloomberg
Nearly three-quarters of the S&P 500’s 93% gain since ChatGPT’s 2022 launch came from just 20 AI-linked stocks, led by NVIDIA. 🤖📈
@markets @soberlook thedailyshot.com/subscribe/
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By my count there are 3 more days for the ZBT to trigger. We would have to avg 2200 NYSE Adv stocks for the next 3 days. That happened the last time it triggered on 4/24/25. Not predicting just sharing what I see.
Down leg of the Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered today. After a full ZBT, the S&P 500 $SPX was higher 100% of the time 1 year later, with no 15%+ drawdowns.
Last midterm year ZBT was in 1982. Since 1970, just 12 of 295 setups became full ZBTs.
ALT S&P 500 chart showing 17 historical Zweig Breadth Thrust signals since 1950. The table shows the S&P 500 was positive 100% of the time 6, 9, and 12 months later, with average 12-month gain of 24.5%. No signal experienced a 15%+ maximum drawdown over the following year.
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Bitcoin ($BtCUSD) back above the 50wk line which has been a good to own in the recent past.
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Regarding backtesting...here is a simple mean reversion strategy that was published in the mid 1990's. It was very well known and used by many including me.
bkttrades.com/5rsi.html
Somewhere along the line, it stopped working but it was many years after it was published. It proved to me that simple is best and that backtested strategies can continue working, if not over optimized. However they need to be continually monitored for the inevitable end of the edge. No amount of out-of-sample testing or walking forward can prevent this from happening. Just like with stocks, you cannot be complacent.
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So my followers have doubled in the last 2 days, the Risk Off chart I posted has gone parabolic, and I've gained many new subs. While I am grateful for all of you I want to set the record straight up front. If I knew what the market was going to do next week I would not be posting on X. I would be on a yacht in the Caribbean surrounded by gorgeous women with Bob Marley in the background. I know nothing. The market is a giant poker game and we are the patsies. I work hard to try to bend the odds slightly in my favor and I share what I see. But please do your own due diligence and confirm my stuff with your own and that of others. This is a tough racket and much of what we see and read is meant to deceive us not help us. All the best to you and I look forward to sharing and hearing your thoughts.
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I had a wonderful experience at a Tractor Supply ($TSCO) store yesterday. The stock chart doesn't look so hot now but I hope they do well.
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