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I’ve noticed something interesting lately. Here we are at a crucial point for bitcoin, and therefore the rest of the crypto market. What has struck me is how incredibly creative crypto influencers have become in their writing skills. Obviously, none of us know which direction things are going in the near term. That’s a given. I will say, though, that this has given me an opportunity to distinguish between influencers who have conviction or at least directional bias, from those that are creatively hedging in what I think is an effort to point out after the fact how they were indeed correct in their assessment.
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So as not to be the pot that called the kettle black, I do have an opinion, based on my own thoughts, melded with those of the people in this space I respect most. My opinion is simple: This is a great time to accumulate spot in high conviction coins for a two + year horizon. I do not think it’s a great time to take swing/long leveraged plays, because the 4 year cycle purists just might be right, and perhaps we do find our lows in October. If we do, so be in, I’ll put half in spot now in high conviction coins, and this fall I will look at our surroundings, and make a judgment call based on evolving PA, as to whether to apply some low prudent leverage to some coins with high merit, or split the remainder between spot and low leverage perps safer on the risk ladder. That’s the plan. Good luck to all with yours!
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The republican’s running for reelection on midterms should have distanced themselves many months ago, but they’re way too late now. They had no balls. As much as it will affect me negatively financially, I’m at least going to find some mild enjoyment watching all of them choke on their own vomit for the rest of Trump’s term for having been so incredibly selfish and immoral. You reap what you sow.
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I can happily say that I’ve neither watched the news, or googled “Trump news” in a couple of months. It’s been a nice reprieve, and after doing so, and reversing it momentarily tonight, I see it was a good choice. Holy moly, when I read “l love the numbers”, after having read all of the “sleepy Joe” rhetoric previously, I was happy with my choice. Wow, just wow..
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Nobody knows for sure what will happen next. Everyone is presenting a hypothesis, some of which will be right, some of which will be wrong, and some of which will be partially correct depending on how much they straddle the line and hedge.
Here are my beliefs:
1.Bitcoin has not topped. Not with the tailwinds behind us. We are literally experiencing the “adoption moment” regardless of how volatile things may be near/midterm due to the uncertainties.
2.I can’t believe that Bitcoin will surge, without also believing that BTC.D will also go up in the process, which means that most alts (even strong alts), will tread water at best, until BTC.D tops, probably at 70% ish.
3.The 4 year cycle is in disarray, probably because the past “4 year cycles” have coincidentally corresponded with presidential elections and expansionary economies. This time is different.
4.Printing will happen, but not until things are bad enough to force it. I also believe that on the way to things getting bad enough to print, our beloved alts will suffer even more, even if BTC holds it ground, or rises somewhat.
5.I believe strong alts with utility will pump eventually, if and only if our economy does not become completely wrecked before they have a chance, which is non zero possibility, to put it optimistically.
Right or wrong, these are my core beliefs, subject to revision as situations develop. Just putting it out there.
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Bitcoin has held up fabulously throughout all of this. I see that as a great sign of where we are adoption-wise, (which I too believe). We were on a path of Bitcoin strategic reserves, and perhaps even creating an “arms race” for participation. That’s hardly in the news anymore, much less the timeline. Nobody is talking about the 4 year cycle anymore, much less a rotation to alts. When the actual impacts (not the frontrunning), hit the books, and are felt at grocery stores, car dealerships, Walmart etc, just exactly who is going to be investing in anything other than Bitcoin for the “long term”, and even then, until or unless there is clarity, as opposed to uncertainty, who, under present circumstances, other then Saylor, would be thinking you can’t get a better entry on even Bitcoin later if this persists. I so hope I am wrong, and will be so gleeful to admit it if so.
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Are you cheering for Trump to fire Powell? Do you want instant gratification today? Do you think that Trump has any freaking clue as to what Powell is trying to juggle? Do you want the kids to run the school? Do you want ADHD kids with no meds to run the school? Be careful what you ask for.
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Trump bankrupted 5 companies, and the creditors were left holding the bag. Guess who the creditors are now? More and more super smart money guys are talking about moving to cash and gold. Buffet figured it out way before the election, simply based on the overvaluation of stocks. He was right, and do you think that things will improve based upon what we are experiencing now?
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I joined X to learn about crypto from people who know the ropes, and I’ve found and followed many of them. Now, even they, have largely stopped talking about crypto, TA, narratives, RWA, stable coins, etc. day by day, immature tweet by immature tweet, we are all sitting back wondering what will be left of us if this odiousy continues to go unchecked.
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My hope was that even Trump (the self serving egotist that he is), would come to understand (through polling and fellow republicans who understand reality), that he’s going to completely blow the midterms, at best. I was hoping that that reality, would trump, (pardon the pun), his immense ego. I’m starting to question that.
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I’ve watched something interesting happen over the past several weeks: I’ve watched people people I respect , and whose opinions I respect, go from being generally supportive of Trump and his “policies”, and trying, (with considerable effort), to couch them in postive terms, to now acknowledging that we’re on the verge of potential collapse.
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