Largest buyback in US history & $NVDA prints it while the rest of chips bleed. $235B says Jensen is not worried about the yield tape. #Stocks

Monday premarket has that heavy feel. Futures sliding, the 10Y at 5.24% (a 19 year high), & oil jumping 4% to $108. Bonds are running the show again $SPY $QQQ #Markets

Gold Fields offered A$38.7B for Northern Star and the board flatly refused. $GFI is down ~16% in premarket. Nothing kills an all stock bid like your own stock falling. #Gold

Oracle is down premarket again & its 2056 bonds are yielding over 8%, a record. The AI buildout is getting financed like a leveraged buyout. $ORCL #AI

Next week is stacked. Tuesday is OpenAI DevDay, Wednesday brings core PCE plus $MU earnings and quarter end in one session, & Thursday $TSLA shows the Roadster while $NKE reports from 12 year lows. The tape gets its answers. $SPY #Markets

Two camps, one tape. Tom Lee says 5% yields are a filter that rewards the strongest balance sheets. Krinsky says this is the narrowest $SPY leadership since March 2000. Half the index below its 200 day average near a record. Somebody is misreading this tape. $SPY $QQQ #Markets

In 2023 Fox Factory paid $572M for Marucci Sports. Friday it sold the business for $225M, & the CEO said the quiet part out loud: Marucci 'did not deliver the returns we expected.' $200M goes to debt, leverage drops 3.7x to 2.7x, ~$16M a year in interest saved. $FOXF #Stocks

Wednesday is the memory exam. $MU reports after the close with a seventh straight quarter of triple digit earnings growth on the table, & $SNDK is already up 560% this year pricing in perfection. If Micron blinks, the whole AI memory trade reprices. #Semiconductors

Morgan Stanley calls the Oracle panic a legal safety net, not a red flag, & keeps $BE Overweight with a $310 target. The stock ripped 8.2% Friday, the S&P's best day. #Stocks

A San Diego jury just ordered $AAPL to pay $5.7B over Taptic Engine patents, the largest verdict of its kind in the US. Apple will appeal & awards like this usually get cut way down. Still, $5.7B is real money even for Apple. Monday's tape tells the story #AAPL

The S&P 500 is 0.9% off its high. These names are 55%+ below theirs. $CSGP $FISV $INTU $ORCL $LULU Falling knives or the next rotation? #Stocks

$NOW at $135: not cheap, not expensive. The fair kind of trade. The setup: crashed to the $80s on the Feb AI software panic & a Q1 beat that still fell 17.8% on margin fears. Then ripped 54% in 3 months. Q2 said the business is fine: subscription revenue up 24.5%, AI contract value over $1B & up 40% quarter over quarter, 98% renewals, RPO $29B up 21%. The catch: GAAP operating income fell from $358M to $162M on stock comp & amortization. That is why the 85x trailing P/E lies. The price: about 28x forward earnings on 22.5% growth. Roughly 1x growth. Half the peak multiple, a premium to $CRM, in line with $MSFT. The test is Oct 28. Hit the $3.975B to $3.98B guide with 31% margins & $135 is fair. Miss & $110 to $120 comes back fast. Growth at a reasonable price. #SaaS

Morgan Stanley just lifted the odds on its $756 $DELL bull case, AI momentum is the whole story. Stock popped 5% Friday. The AI trade keeps spreading past chips into the infrastructure names. #Stocks

Nubank in early talks to buy Monzo for £8B to £10B per Reuters. Monzo was worth £4.5B in Oct 2024, so that is a double in two years. $NU buying its way into Europe. #Fintech

I think Stripe is back in the loop $PYPL

$VKTX with the classic biotech whiplash: +36% Tuesday on VK2735 maintenance data, then -14.5% on the upsized $500M raise. Buy the news, fund the raise. #Biotech

What happened in markets today: 1. A green Friday closed out a green week. The Dow jumped 479 points, up 0.9%, to 51,828, snapping a three week losing streak. The S&P 500 added 0.5% to 7,743 ($SPY) & the Nasdaq gained 0.5% to 27,069 ($QQQ). For the week: Nasdaq +2.1%, S&P +1.2%, Dow +0.3%. The S&P now sits about 0.7% below its record high from Aug 13, & the VIX slipped 5% to 14.85. 2. The bond market finally caught its breath. The 10 year yield held near 5.17% after touching its highest level since 2007 on Thursday, while the 30 year sits at 5.5%, the highest since 2004. NY Fed's Williams & Philly Fed's Paulson struck a measured tone, saying policy stays data dependent. The market still sees about a two in three chance of another rate hike in October. 3. Oil was the relief valve. WTI crude fell about 2% to $92.52 & Brent slipped to about $104 on news of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Energy had been the market's biggest inflation worry all week, so this pullback unlocked the whole rally. 4. What a round trip this week. Monday & Tuesday brought the best sessions since early August, Wednesday's hot business activity data & hawkish Fed talk knocked the S&P 0.75% & the Nasdaq 1.1%, Thursday went nowhere, & today the relief rally closed it out. Stocks sit near record highs with the 10 year above 5% & oil near $93. This market is not scared of much right now. 5. Big single stock moves: $MSFT rose about 4% as AI software strength carried the tape, $META gave back 3.5% after popping on its Connect event Thursday, & $AKAM added 3% after Anthropic committed at least $11.6B over seven years for cloud & software. Even a beat was not enough: $COST topped earnings Thursday after the bell ($6.75 a share vs $6.54 expected, revenue ahead too) & still fell 2.5% Friday to about $919. 6. Around the world: Europe climbed, with the STOXX 600 up 0.7% on track for its first weekly gain in four weeks as airlines bounced on cheaper fuel. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.3% for a fifth straight win, with banks riding higher US yields. Hong Kong slipped 1.8% while China, Korea & Taiwan were closed for holidays. 7. Cross asset check: gold rose 0.7% to $4,327 an ounce, the dollar index is up about 1% on the week, & $BTC slipped 0.4% to about $84k after briefly touching $85k. Mortgage rates crossed 7% for the first time in over a year. That number tells you what 5.17% on the 10 year actually means out in the real economy. 8. On deck Monday: the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey & Jefferies $JEF reports after the bell (analysts expect about $1 a share on roughly $2.2B in revenue). Tuesday brings Australia's central bank decision, & Wednesday serves up inflation & GDP data to close out the month. #Stocks

$META's @muse just teamed up with Plaid, so the AI agent can now connect straight to your bank accounts. The AI assistant is becoming a money assistant. #Fintech

$RDDT says 4% of its entire 21 year content corpus was created in a single quarter Saw this quote today & it stopped me cold. Reddit CEO: "In the last quarter, we saw 1 billion new posts and comments. That's about 4% of our corpus. We're 21 years old, 4% of our corpus was created in the last quarter." Let that sink in. $RDDT is 21 years old, & 1 out of every 25 posts & comments that have ever existed on the platform was created in the last 90 days. Why this matters for the business: 1. The corpus is the moat. $RDDT licenses this data to AI companies, & those deals are priced on size & freshness. Growing the corpus 4% in a quarter is like compounding inventory for free. 2. Ad inventory scales with content. A billion new posts & comments means a billion new pages for ads to sit next to. This is the engine behind revenue growth. 3. The uncomfortable question: how much of that 1 billion is AI generated? $RDDT fights a constant bot battle. If a chunk of this growth is synthetic, the corpus quality & its licensing value deserve a discount. 4. The flywheel still spins. More content means better search visibility, which brings more users, which creates more content. Very few 21 year old platforms grow their corpus at this pace. Risks worth naming: content quality dilution, rising moderation costs & the chance that AI labs eventually need less fresh human data, not more. My take: this is one of the most bullish stats I have seen on $RDDT & its data business. A 21 year old platform still compounding its total corpus 4% per quarter is not a mature asset. Quote via The Transcript's weekly earnings digest (@TheTranscript_ on X). Hat tip to Kaushik (@WisemanCap), whose investing work I follow & learn from. Not financial advice, just sharing a data point I found interesting. #Stocks

Burry is short $MU into Wednesday's print. Sold out memory vs Burry. #Semis