Indiana's championship looks impossible until you study the system Curt Cignetti spent fifteen years building.

It’s up & it’s good!

Unreal

Game preview: Northern Illinois at UNLV 10:30 PM ET · UNLV -22.5 · total 55 · our model: UNLV by 18.7 Best available lines (as of 4:40 PM ET Saturday): Northern Illinois +21.5 (-105, Fanatics); UNLV -21.5 (-105, Hard Rock Bet); Over 54.5 (-105, Hard Rock Bet); Under 54.5 (-102, BetMGM). The spread sat at UNLV by 24 on Monday and Tuesday mornings, with the total at 53.5. It has come down to UNLV -22.5 as of Saturday on the consensus board, with some books at -21.5 and a total near 55. UNLV is a double-digit home favorite against an 0-7 Northern Illinois team that has allowed 38.6 points a game. Our model still has the Rebels winning, but by 18.7 rather than the market's 22.5. That is a gap of about 4 points on the same side, and it is one of the wider same-side splits left on the Saturday night board. The matchup UNLV's offense is built to stress what Northern Illinois cannot stop. The Huskies allow 0.336 expected points per dropback and 0.25 per carry, with a third-down stop rate of 39 percent. QB Jackson Arnold threw for 246 yards and two touchdowns at Air Force and added 78 rushing yards and a score on 13 carries. RB Jai'Den Thomas, No. 32 among running backs in our rankings, had 17 carries for 48 yards and a touchdown in that game. Northern Illinois managed 266 yards and five turnovers in a 56-21 loss to Hawai'i. QB Taron Dickens completed 17 of 26 for 171 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions, and WR DeAree Rogers, No. 46 among receivers in our rankings, caught eight passes for 115 yards and two scores. The Huskies also lost three fumbles. That is the script UNLV's defense wants to see again. UNLV allows 23.7 points a game and grades closer to average on defense than Northern Illinois does on offense. The Rebels' pass defense sits at 0.052 expected points allowed per dropback, which is a real step up from what Dickens saw against Hawai'i. What decides it The first edge is UNLV's ability to run and throw enough to keep Northern Illinois's defense in conflict. The Huskies allow 221 rushing yards a game, and Air Force just ran for 430 on UNLV, so that front has already been gashed this season. UNLV's own run game averages 171 yards and gets the same look. The second edge is Northern Illinois finishing drives. The Huskies average 15.1 points, convert 30 percent of third downs, and are minus 5 in turnover margin. Even when Rogers gets open, five turnovers against Hawai'i turned a workable passing day into a 35-point loss. UNLV's own recent form is the counterweight. The Rebels lost 41-31 at Air Force after three straight wins, and they have not looked like a 22-point favorite for a full four quarters this season. Their scoring average is 24.1, which fits a solid home favorite more than a three-touchdown beatdown if Northern Illinois can avoid the empty possessions. The market As of Tuesday morning, UNLV was favored by 24 with a total of 53.5. The Rebels sit at -22.5 as of Saturday, with some books at -21.5 and a total near 55. Our model has UNLV by 18.7 with a total of 51.8. That leaves about 4 points between the market and the model on the same side of the winner. National efficiency ratings place UNLV 82nd and Northern Illinois 136th, and the season-long scoring gap is enormous. The market's case is that an 0-7 road team allowing 38.6 points should be laid out at Allegiant. The model's smaller margin treats UNLV as a clear favorite without baking in a full three-touchdown beatdown, and the total sits a couple points under the board. The next thing to watch is whether Northern Illinois can protect the ball on early downs. If Dickens and Rogers can sustain a few drives without the turnovers that defined the Hawai'i game, the number gets tested. If the Huskies go empty again, UNLV's offense gets the short fields that turn a solid favorite into a runaway.

Game preview: Washington State at San Diego State 7:00 PM ET · San Diego State -2.5 · total 48 · our model: Washington State by 2.7 Best available lines (as of 4:40 PM ET Saturday): Washington State +2.5 (-103, Caesars); San Diego State -2.5 (-110, Hard Rock Bet); Over 47.5 (-110, theScore Bet); Under 47.5 (-102, BetMGM). The spread sat at San Diego State by 3 on Monday morning and moved to 2.5 on Tuesday morning, with the total at 48.5. It sits at San Diego State -2.5 as of Saturday, with the total near 48. San Diego State is a short home favorite coming off a 56-49 shootout loss at Colorado State. Washington State is 1-7 and coming off a 31-10 home loss to Boise State. The market has the Aztecs by 2.5. Our model has the Cougars winning outright by 2.7. That is a winner disagreement of about 5 points, and both defenses have been soft enough to make the number feel thin either way. The matchup San Diego State's offense finally looked like itself at Colorado State, even in a loss. QB Stone Saunders threw for 369 yards and two touchdowns on 23 of 33 passes, RB Lucky Sutton ran 22 times for 98 yards and two scores, and the Aztecs put up 565 yards and 49 points. Those 565 yards were their highest output of the season, and they came on the road against a Pac-12 opponent. Washington State's defense has been allowing 27.6 points a game and 0.147 expected points per dropback. Boise State ran for 258 yards on them last week. The Aztecs' pass game against that secondary is the cleanest edge on the board if Saunders can keep the ball. Washington State's offense is the harder sell. The Cougars average 18.9 points, and QB Owen Eshelman completed 21 of 40 for 191 yards with an interception against Boise State while running 23 times for 33 yards. Their passing game sits at minus 0.082 expected points per dropback, and San Diego State's pass defense has been allowing 0.298, which is a weakness-on-weakness matchup rather than a clear edge. What decides it The first question is whether San Diego State's defense can stop anyone. The Aztecs allow 36.1 points and 284 passing yards a game, and Colorado State threw for 333 and ran for 216 in Fort Collins. National efficiency ratings place that unit 109th. A 1-7 Washington State offense still has a path if Eshelman can stay on schedule. The second question is Washington State's ball security and finishing. The Cougars are minus 8 in turnover margin, and they have lost five straight since beating Duquesne. They were inside one score of Utah State and put 30 points and 459 yards on Oregon State in a loss, so the ceiling is there. The floor showed up against Boise State. Sutton against Washington State's run defense is where San Diego State can end drives early. The Cougars allow 171 rushing yards a game and 0.123 expected points per carry. If the Aztecs lean on Sutton after his 22 carries, 98 yards and two scores last week, they control the clock and keep Eshelman on the sideline. The market As of Tuesday morning, San Diego State was favored by 2.5 with a total of 48.5. The Aztecs sit at -2.5 as of Saturday, with a total near 48. Our model has Washington State by 2.7 with a total of 50.7. That is about 5 points apart on opposite sides of the winner. Our ratings have these teams close enough that a short home number still favors San Diego State on the board, while the model leans the other way on results and the projected margin. Nearly everything measured this season still points toward the Aztecs as the better offense. San Diego State averages 26.5 points to Washington State's 18.9, and national efficiency ratings place the Aztecs 104th and the Cougars 121st. The case for Washington State is that San Diego State has allowed at least 23 points in every game and 49 or more twice. The total sits near 48, and our model is at 50.7. Pairing each offense's scoring with what the other defense allows lands closer to the mid 50s, so the market is the lower number. The case for fewer points is Washington State's season-long scoring rate and San Diego State's habit of playing from behind. The next thing to watch is whether Saunders can protect the ball after two interceptions last week. If he does, San Diego State's offense is built to stress a Washington State defense that has already been stressed all season. If he does not, Eshelman gets the short field the Cougars have been waiting for.

Game preview: Oklahoma State at Iowa State 7:00 PM ET · Oklahoma State -9.5 · total 58.5 · our model: Iowa State by 6.7 Best available lines (as of 4:30 PM ET Saturday): Oklahoma State -9.5 (-110, Hard Rock Bet); Iowa State +9.5 (-102, DraftKings); Over 58.5 (-101, bet365); Under 57.5 (-105, BetMGM). The spread sat at Oklahoma State by 9.5 on Sunday morning, moved to 10 on Monday, and was back to 9 on Tuesday morning, with the total at 57.5 after opening the week near 58.5. It sits at Oklahoma State -9.5 as of Saturday, with the total near 58.5. Oklahoma State arrives in Ames averaging 40 points a game and fresh off a 57-24 win over Colorado. Iowa State is coming off a 39-3 loss at Arizona, its second straight defeat. The Cowboys are a 9.5-point road favorite, while our model has the home team winning outright. No game on this week's board has a wider split between the two. The matchup Oklahoma State's passing game is the headline. The Cowboys throw for 341 yards a game, and QB Drew Mestemaker rates as the No. 2 quarterback in our player rankings. Against Colorado they threw for 410 yards and four touchdowns, with WR Justin Bowick catching five passes for 138 yards and a score and WR Wyatt Young adding four catches for 78 and a touchdown. That runs at Iowa State's weak spot. The Cyclones allow 218 passing yards a game, and Arizona completed 30 of 37 throws against them last week. Measured by efficiency, Oklahoma State's air attack against that secondary is the clearest mismatch on the board. Iowa State's offense gives less reason for confidence. The Cyclones managed 221 yards at Arizona and converted 3 of 14 third downs, with QB Jaylen Raynor and QB Connor Moberly splitting the snaps. Raynor completed 8 of 10 for 106 yards and lost a fumble, and Moberly finished 7 of 17 for 63. RB Aiden Flora, No. 21 among running backs in our rankings, ran 12 times for 36 yards. What decides it The question is whether Iowa State can make this a shorter game. The Cyclones need long drives and a run game that stays on schedule, because trading quick possessions with Mestemaker is the script the market expects. Oklahoma State allows 138 rushing yards a game and grades close to neutral against the run by expected points, so the room is there if Flora and the line can find it. Oklahoma State's defense is the ordinary part of this team. The Cowboys allow 23.7 points a game, and Colorado threw for 343 yards on them at nearly 11 yards an attempt. LB Ethan Wesloski had two sacks in that game and the Cowboys forced three turnovers, which is a big part of how Colorado's 399 yards turned into 24 points. The Cowboys have also been less sure of themselves on the road. They lost at Tulsa and at Houston, and their only road win came at West Virginia. Iowa State, for all its recent trouble, beat that same West Virginia team 45-42 in Ames. The market As of Tuesday morning, Oklahoma State was favored by 9 with a total of 57.5. The Cowboys sit at -9.5 as of Saturday, with a total of 58.5. Our model has Iowa State by 6.7 with a total of 53.6. That leaves the two numbers about 16 points apart, on opposite sides of the winner. Our ratings have these teams close on results, with Iowa State slightly ahead, and home field is the largest single piece of the projected margin. They also cannot see who starts at quarterback, which matters for a team that split snaps last week. The case for the Cyclones is that Oklahoma State has allowed at least 24 points in six of seven games, including both road losses. The market's case rests on how these teams have played this season. Oklahoma State is far better per play, adding 0.224 expected points per snap to Iowa State's 0.076, and national efficiency ratings place the Cowboys 23rd and the Cyclones 76th. Iowa State has lost its last two games by a combined 50 points, while Oklahoma State has scored 39 or more in five of its seven. The evidence from this season points toward the market. Iowa State's quarterback plan is clearer after the split at Arizona. Moberly is listed out on the Big 12's updated availability report, and Raynor is not listed. The first thing to watch is how an Iowa State secondary without CB Beni Ngoyi, who is listed out, holds up on Oklahoma State's first few possessions, since that matchup is where the market's number comes from.

Hardy back on the field tonight!

Must protect this man at all cost!

Game preview: Oregon State at Fresno State 11:00 PM ET · Oregon State -6 · total 57.5 · our model: Fresno State by 4.2 Best available lines (as of 12:00 PM ET Saturday): Oregon State -5 (-110, BetRivers); Fresno State +6 (-108, BetMGM); Over 57.5 (-108, BetMGM); Under 57.5 (-110, BetMGM). The spread moved from Oregon State by 6.5 on Monday morning to Oregon State by 5.5 on Tuesday morning, and the total rose from 56.5 to 58.5. It sits at Oregon State -6 as of Saturday. Oregon State arrives in Fresno with a passing game averaging 371 yards and a market that has made it a road favorite. Fresno State arrives on a two-game losing streak, with an offense that hasn't topped 31 points in its last three games. This late Saturday game at Valley Children's Stadium (11:00 PM ET) turns on whether Fresno State's defense can slow QB Braden Atkinson enough to keep the Bulldogs' limited offense in range. The matchup Oregon State averages 42.7 points a game. Atkinson, No. 13 among quarterbacks in our player rankings, threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-30 win over Washington State. RB AJ Newberry did damage both ways in that game, running for 105 yards and catching five passes for 120. The highest-ranked player on the field is WR Jesse Legree, No. 5 among receivers, so Atkinson has more than one place to go. Fresno State has had a harder time moving the ball. The Bulldogs average 27.6 points, and their run game is close to neutral by expected points per carry. In a 26-23 loss at San Diego State, QB Jayden Mandal threw for 141 yards and the line gave up six sacks. Matt Entz's team does have one equalizer, a turnover margin of plus 8. Both teams had an open week, and they share two opponents that pull in opposite directions. Oregon State beat San Diego State 66-14, a week before Fresno State lost to the Aztecs. Fresno State won 26-6 at Washington State, the same team that put 30 points and 459 yards on Oregon State. What decides it The first edge is Atkinson against the Fresno State secondary. Oregon State gains far more per dropback than per carry, and Fresno State's pass defense has been softer than its run defense by the same expected points measure. DB Simeon Harris, No. 13 among defensive backs in our rankings, is the player the Bulldogs need to win his matchups. The second edge is on the other side. JaMarcus Shephard's defense has 17 sacks, and LB Takari Hickle had 2.5 against Washington State. Fresno State has allowed 15 sacks, so if the Bulldogs fall behind schedule, Mandal ends up throwing into the same kind of pressure he saw in San Diego. Fresno State's run defense is the counterweight. It gives up 171 rushing yards a game but grades close to neutral per carry, and holding Oregon State's ground game in check would make the Beavers more predictable on third down. That puts the burden on the Bulldogs' front seven before Atkinson ever drops back. The market As of Tuesday morning, Oregon State was favored by 5.5 with a total of 58.5. The spread sat at 6.5 on Friday, touched 7 on Sunday and was back at 6.5 Monday before dropping a point, while the total climbed two. Oregon State sits at -6 as of Saturday morning, with a total of 57.5. Our model has Fresno State by 4.2 with a total of 53.2. That's a winner disagreement, and most of the evidence sits with the market even after Tuesday's move toward Fresno State. Our ratings have these teams nearly even on results, so home field is what tips the model to Fresno State. Nearly everything measured this season points the other way. Oregon State gains 0.474 expected points per dropback against a Fresno State pass defense allowing 0.124, its two losses came against Houston and Texas Tech, and national efficiency ratings rank the Beavers 50th to Fresno State's 61st. The case for Fresno State is the Washington State comparison, the turnover margin and a home crowd late at night. The total gap also runs toward the market. Pairing each offense's scoring this season with what the other defense allows lands in the high 50s, close to the current number. The lower projection draws partly on last season's scoring, and the case for fewer points is a Fresno State offense that hasn't topped 31 in three games. The Fresno State offensive line is the next thing to watch after six sacks in San Diego. If that front holds up, the Bulldogs can stay on the ground and keep Atkinson on the sideline. If it doesn't, Oregon State's pass rush gets to decide this.

Game preview: Texas State at Boise State 10:00 PM ET · Boise State -10.5 · total 63.5 · our model: Boise State by 9 Best available lines (as of 12:00 PM ET Saturday): Boise State -10.5 (-108, BetMGM); Texas State +11 (-113, BetRivers); Over 63.5 (-108, Caesars); Under 63.5 (-108, BetRivers). Boise State is a 10.5-point favorite as of Saturday. Texas State has built its season on staying on the field. The Bobcats convert 55 percent of their third downs, and Boise State's defense allows conversions on just 29 percent. That collision decides a lot of this late kickoff at Albertsons Stadium (10:00 PM ET Saturday), and the market expects Boise State to win it comfortably. The matchup Texas State's offense runs through QB Brad Jackson, No. 16 among quarterbacks in our player rankings, and a run game averaging 272 yards. Last week was a grind, though, as the Bobcats beat Utah State 20-17 at home on 250 total yards and needed a kickoff return for a touchdown to get there. Jackson completed 27 of 37 passes for only 167 yards, and Utah State sacked him four times. Utah State's message afterward was that negative plays are how you slow a tempo team like Texas State, and the box backs it up. The Bobcats were stopped at or behind the line on a quarter of their runs that night, and their passing game finished below zero in expected points. The scoring average of 37.1 under GJ Kinne also comes with some padding. Texas State put up 63 on Incarnate Word and 66 on Colorado State, and it scored 7 at Texas. Boise State is 6-1, and its only loss came at Oregon, 34-27. Spencer Danielson's team runs for 238 yards a game, and RB Dylan Riley, No. 8 among running backs in our rankings, ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-10 win at Washington State. QB Maddux Madsen only had to throw 23 passes that night, and the Broncos didn't turn it over. What decides it The first edge is up front when Boise State has the ball. The Broncos' offensive line has allowed five sacks all season, and Texas State's defense has made only seven. If Madsen stays clean, a Texas State pass defense allowing 285 yards a game is a soft target for a Boise State passing game that has been efficient all year. The catch for Boise State is that the Bobcats defend the run far better than the pass. Texas State gives up 115 rushing yards a game and is slightly below zero in expected points per carry allowed, which is where Riley could find the going slow. That could push the Broncos toward the air more than usual, which is fine for them as long as the protection holds. Texas State's path runs through its own ground game. Boise State is softer against the run than the pass by expected points, even while allowing 99 rushing yards a game. LB Jayden Virgin-Morgan, who had a sack at Washington State, is the player the Bobcats have to account for on early downs if Jackson is going to see the manageable third downs that drive this offense. Turnovers point the other way. Boise State is plus-4 in turnover margin and Texas State is minus-5, and a team relying on long drives can't afford to give the ball back. The market As of Tuesday morning, Boise State was favored by 11.5 with a total of 63.5, unchanged from Monday. Boise State sits at -10.5 as of Saturday morning, with a total of 63.5. Our model has Boise State by 9 with a total of 60.1, so the two agree on a Broncos win and differ by a few points on both the margin and the scoring. That gap is small, and both cases are easy to see. The market is built around Boise State's run game and turnover margin. The case for a closer game is a Texas State offense that converts at a rate few defenses have faced. Boise State's defense has held up better than a shootout script implies, even if Texas State gets a couple of shots. Boise State's offensive line is the group to watch this week. If that front holds again, Texas State needs its run defense to win early downs against Riley and keep Madsen in obvious passing situations, where the Bobcats' third-down defense has a chance.

Game preview: Washington at Nebraska 8:00 PM ET · Nebraska -7.5 · total 50 · our model: Nebraska by 5.8 Best available lines (as of 12:00 PM ET Saturday): Nebraska -7.5 (-109, BetRivers); Washington +7.5 (-110, BetMGM); Over 49.5 (-115, DraftKings); Under 50.5 (-112, BetRivers). Nebraska was an 8.5-point favorite on Monday, down from 9.5 on Sunday, and the total rose to 49.5. Nebraska dropped to a 7.5-point favorite as of Tuesday morning, down from 8.5 on Monday. Washington coach Jedd Fisch declined to name a starting quarterback and confirmed that Demond Williams Jr. fractured a rib against Iowa. The Big Ten's first availability report of the week lists Washington QB Demond Williams Jr. as questionable, OL Landen Hatchett out and OL Justin Hylkema and OL Jake Flores doubtful. Nebraska lists DB Jamir Conn out. The Big Ten's updated availability report moves Washington QB Demond Williams Jr. and RB Jayden Limar from questionable to probable. Nebraska moved OL Gunnar Gottula from available to out and LB Vincent Shavers Jr. from available to questionable. It sits at Nebraska -7.5 as of Saturday. Washington and Nebraska both come off an open week into Saturday night in Lincoln. Nebraska last played a 17-14 loss at Oregon, its second straight close defeat after a 5-0 start. Washington last played a 38-26 win at Purdue that it pulled away with despite five turnovers, a result built on surviving those mistakes. The matchup Washington's passing game is the most efficient thing either team brings. The Huskies throw for 283 yards a game at 0.355 expected points added per dropback. QB Elijah Brown threw every pass at Purdue, completing 21 of 27 for 302 yards and three touchdowns, along with three interceptions. Coach Jedd Fisch won't name a starter between Brown and QB Demond Williams Jr., whom our player ratings rank higher and who, Fisch confirmed, fractured a rib against Iowa. Williams moved from questionable to probable on the Big Ten's updated availability report. That runs into a Nebraska pass defense that allows 172 yards a game and well below-zero efficiency per dropback. Nebraska also has 19 sacks, and Washington's line has allowed 22. The Big Ten's first availability report lists Washington OL Landen Hatchett out and two more offensive linemen as doubtful. The Huskies can't count on the run to slow the rush, either. They average 104 rushing yards a game at slightly negative efficiency per carry. What decides it Third down is the widest gap between these teams. Nebraska converts 51% on offense and holds opponents to 19%, a number that stands out even with three soft early opponents in the sample. Washington converts 33%. That leaves the Huskies needing explosive passes to finish drives, because long sequences of short gains are where Nebraska's defense has been at its best. Nebraska's offense usually runs, at 194 rushing yards a game, but it managed 78 on 33 carries at Oregon. QB Anthony Colandrea went 18 of 33 for 164 yards there and added 38 rushing yards and a score. Washington's run defense is the better half of its defense by efficiency, so getting the ground game back on track is Nebraska's main job. The market Nebraska was a 9.5-point favorite from Friday through Sunday. The line moved to 8.5 on Monday and 7.5 as of Tuesday morning, while the total climbed from 48.5 to 49.5. Nebraska sits at -7.5 as of Saturday morning, with a total of 50. Our model has Nebraska by 5.8 with a total of 52.2, still about two points closer than the market on the side and nearly three higher on scoring. The market's case starts with Nebraska's +6 turnover margin, 35.6 points scored and 15.4 allowed a game, against a Washington team that lost to Minnesota, USC and Iowa. The case for a tighter game is Washington's passing efficiency, which kept it comfortably ahead at Purdue even after giving the ball away five times. Nebraska may not know the quarterback until kickoff. Coach Matt Rhule said Monday that his staff is preparing for both and "won't know until the first snap of the game." On Saturday, watch the Huskies on third and medium. If they convert there, the model's closer game is in play.

No Colin Simmons, no Trevor Goosby, but Mississippi State is going with third stringer AJ Swann at QB with Kamario Taylor out for the year. Preview here:

Whoever's on that depth chart, Penn State's secondary is holding up at 141 passing yards allowed a game. The Michigan loss came down to three turnovers, and Purdue's defense allowed 11.2 yards per attempt to Washington before the bye. Our full preview:

Game preview: Army at Memphis 8:00 PM ET · Memphis -6 · total 60 · our model: Memphis by 5.4 Best available lines (as of 12:00 PM ET Saturday): Memphis -5 (-113, BetRivers); Army +6 (-107, Caesars); Over 59.5 (-110, BetMGM); Under 60.5 (-112, DraftKings). The total rose from 58.5 on Monday morning to 60 on Tuesday morning, and the spread moved from Memphis by 6.5 to Memphis by 6. It sits at Memphis -6 as of Saturday. Army runs for 346 yards a game and has won four of its last five, most recently with a 38-35 win at Tulsa. Memphis brings a disruptive front and a passing game that can make the Black Knights pay for every empty possession. This Saturday night game at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (8:00 PM ET) turns on whether Memphis can get Army behind schedule, and on whether Army's defense can get a stop when it needs one. The matchup Jeff Monken's offense is built almost entirely on the run. Army throws for 75 yards a game, gains far more per carry than per dropback by expected points, and its line has allowed three sacks all season. At Tulsa, QB Cale Hellums carried 30 times for 121 yards and three touchdowns while Army held the ball for more than 33 minutes. OL Brady Small, the top-ranked offensive lineman in our player rankings, leads that front. Army averaged eight yards a carry against Florida Atlantic a week before Tulsa. The Tulsa game also exposed the other side of Army. The Golden Hurricane threw for 262 yards and scored 35 on only 26 runs, and Army's defense ranks 96th in national efficiency ratings. Memphis is 6-2 under Charles Huff and scores 36.1 points a game. The Tigers beat East Carolina 41-34 on Oct 22 with 320 passing yards and three touchdown throws. QB Marcus Stokes is No. 24 among quarterbacks in our rankings, and the Memphis passing game has been far more efficient than its run game this season. What decides it The first edge is the Memphis front against an Army offense that rarely loses yardage. DL J'Mond Tapp, No. 5 among defensive linemen in our rankings, anchors a defense with 20 sacks. Army's offense allows disruptive plays at less than half the rate Memphis creates them, so the Tigers winning first down is the clearest way to break the Army script. The second edge favors Memphis through the air. Army's defense allows 226 passing yards a game and has been softer against the pass than the run, and the Black Knights have only eight sacks. If Memphis builds an early lead, Army has to throw, which is the one thing its offense avoids. The counterweight is the Memphis run defense, which allows 171 yards a game. Army beat Tulane 20-17 this season, the same Tulane team that beat Memphis 31-17, and that kind of low-possession game is the one Army wants. The market As of Tuesday morning, Memphis was favored by 6 with a total of 60, after sitting at 6.5 and 58.5 on Monday. Memphis sits at -6 as of Saturday morning, with a total of 60. Our model has Memphis by 5.4 with a total of 55.6, so the two agree on the winner and sit close on the margin. The market expects more than four points more scoring than the model does, and the gap widened Tuesday. That fits two offenses averaging more than 35 points a game, though Army's ball control has a way of shortening games, as it did against Tulane. The matchup to watch is the Army offensive line against the Memphis front seven. If Army's line holds up, the test is whether Tapp and the Memphis defense can create enough negative plays early to force the Black Knights off the ground.

Game preview: Missouri at Arkansas 7:45 PM ET · Missouri -10 · total 48.5 · our model: Missouri by 4.8 Best available lines (as of 12:00 PM ET Saturday): Missouri -9.5 (-122, FanDuel); Arkansas +10 (-108, BetMGM); Over 47.5 (-110, FanDuel); Under 49 (-110, Fanatics). Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy, recovering from an offseason gunshot wound, is not on Friday's SEC availability report, so he is available and expected to make his season debut. It sits at Missouri -10 as of Saturday. Missouri and Arkansas both come off an open week. The last time out, Missouri threw for 339 yards at Ole Miss and scored 3 points, while Arkansas won at Vanderbilt for its first SEC win of the year. This Saturday night game in Fayetteville (7:45 PM ET) turns on whether Missouri's passing game can finally finish drives against a defense that has struggled to stop anyone through the air. The matchup Missouri is 5-2, and its offense has been lopsided. QB Austin Simmons leads a passing game that carries the offense by expected points per dropback, while the run game has been close to neutral. At Ole Miss that split was stark. Simmons threw for 339 yards, and Missouri ran 26 times for 39. The problem in Oxford was finishing. Missouri converted 6 of 17 third downs, went 0 for 2 on fourth down and never reached the end zone. WR Donovan Olugbode caught nine passes for 127 yards, which shows how much room there was between the 20s. Arkansas is 3-4 under Ryan Silverfield, and three of the four losses came by 24 points or more, at Utah, against Georgia and at Texas A&M. The fourth was a 24-17 home loss to Tennessee. The Vanderbilt game looked different from all of them. The Razorbacks gained 438 yards, and QB KJ Jackson threw for 251 without a turnover, while DB Joker Johnson returned an interception for a touchdown. What decides it The first edge belongs to Missouri. Arkansas allows 213 passing yards a game, but its pass defense gives up about twice as much per dropback as Missouri's does, and its pass rush has 10 sacks in seven games. Simmons should have time, and OL Cayden Green, No. 2 among offensive linemen in our player rankings, anchors a line that has allowed seven sacks. The second edge runs the other way. Missouri's defense has made 18 sacks and generates negative plays at a higher rate than the Arkansas offense allows, and the Razorbacks have given up 16 sacks. If Jackson is under pressure on passing downs, Arkansas loses the balance it found at Vanderbilt. Missouri's own run game is the swing piece. The Razorbacks allow 145 rushing yards a game and are nearly as soft against the run as the pass by expected points, so Eli Drinkwitz has a real chance to get the ground game going. A repeat of 39 yards would leave Simmons throwing into a defense that knows what's coming. RB Ahmad Hardy is available after missing the first seven games and is expected to debut Saturday. He is not listed on Friday's SEC availability report. The market As of Tuesday morning, Missouri was favored by 10 with a total of 49.5, the same as Monday. The spread has barely moved since Friday, when it sat at 9.5. Missouri sits at -10 as of Saturday morning, with a total of 48.5. Our model has Missouri by 4.8 with a total of 53.1. That's a wide gap, and the evidence mostly sits with the market. The case for the bigger number starts with Arkansas's results against good teams, those three losses by 24 or more. National efficiency ratings agree, with Missouri 18th and Arkansas 71st. The model sees Missouri as the better team, just by less than a touchdown once Arkansas gets home field, and the case for a closer game is what Arkansas did at Vanderbilt plus a Missouri offense that has scored 24 and 3 in its two losses. The total gap runs the same direction, with the model expecting more scoring than the market does. This season's scoring points closer to the market's number, since Missouri allows 19.6 points a game and Arkansas scores 21. Watch whether Hardy and the Tigers can get anything going on the ground early, because that decides how much of this game rests on Simmons in the red zone.

Game preview: Ohio State at USC 7:30 PM ET · Ohio State -6.5 · total 50.5 · our model: Ohio State by 7.8 Best available lines (as of 12:00 PM ET Saturday): Ohio State -6 (-110, Fanatics); USC +6.5 (-109, Caesars); Over 50.5 (-112, DraftKings); Under 51.5 (-115, FanDuel). The total dropped from 52.5 on Sunday to 50.5 on Monday and was back up to 51.5 as of Tuesday morning. Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite, down from 7. The Big Ten's Friday availability report lists QB Julian Sayin and RB Ja'Kobi Jackson out for Ohio State, with WR Brandon Inniss questionable and CB Jay Timmons doubtful. USC lists WR Corey Simms out and TE Mark Bowman questionable. It sits at Ohio State -6.5 as of Saturday. Ohio State goes to the Coliseum on Saturday night without the top-ranked player in our ratings. Ryan Day said last Tuesday that QB Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing elbow, and that the Buckeyes are planning to go on without him. This Tuesday, Day still wouldn't name a starter between true freshman QB Luke Fahey and QB Tavien St. Clair, and said it's possible both play. USC has a problem of its own. The Trojans lost 24-7 at Wisconsin and finished with minus 17 rushing yards on 25 carries, against a Wisconsin team that threw for 58 yards and still won by 17. So the biggest game on the board pairs a passing offense that just lost its quarterback with an offense that just lost the line of scrimmage. The matchup With Sayin, Ohio State lived through the air, throwing for 323 yards a game. WR Jeremiah Smith, second overall in our ratings, is what keeps that passing game dangerous with a new quarterback. USC's pass defense is the soft spot on its side, allowing 0.337 expected points per dropback, and national efficiency ratings have the Trojans' defense 39th nationally. Fahey has already had one test. Sayin got hurt in the fourth quarter of the 19-15 win at Indiana on Oct 17, and Fahey finished the game. Before that, Sayin threw for 235 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, Smith caught a touchdown, and the Buckeyes ran 37 times for just 78 yards. The other half is USC's passing game against the defense national efficiency ratings put first in the country. QB Jayden Maiava runs an offense averaging 304 passing yards, and USC converts 51 percent of its third downs. Ohio State allows 13.4 points a game. At Wisconsin, Maiava threw 50 times for 258 yards with two interceptions, which is what this USC offense looks like when nobody respects the run. What decides it With a first-time starter, Ohio State's run game has to carry more than it has all season. RB Bo Jackson had 56 yards on 18 carries at Indiana, even though the Buckeyes have not been a top-30 rushing offense this season. The opponent helps. USC allows 115 rushing yards a game and close to neutral efficiency against the run, so a simple ground plan has room to work. USC's path runs through a line of scrimmage that just lost badly. Wisconsin stuffed 40 percent of USC's runs at or behind the line and sacked Maiava five times. Ohio State's run defense allows 93 yards a game, and its defense creates havoc on 18.2 percent of snaps. DE Kenyatta Jackson Jr. left the Indiana game hurt, and Day said he expects most, though maybe not all, of his injured defenders back after the bye. Jackson does not appear on the Big Ten's Friday availability report. USC's offense has scored on good defenses. It put up 31 at Penn State and 27 against Oregon, and Ohio State scored 23 at Texas and 19 at Indiana in its two closest games, both with Sayin. The market Ohio State was a 7-point favorite last Thursday morning, dipped to 6.5 on Friday and Saturday, went back to 7 and was 6.5 again as of Tuesday morning. Day's announcement on Sayin came two days before that first number. The total has moved more, sliding from 54 on Friday to 50.5 on Monday after USC's seven-point night in Madison, then ticking back to 51.5. Ohio State sits at -6.5 as of Saturday morning, with a total of 50.5. Our model has Ohio State by 7.8 with a total of 53.7, close to the market on the side and a little higher on scoring. Day's choice at quarterback is the thing left to learn. If Fahey or St. Clair can keep Smith involved, Ohio State's receivers against a soft USC secondary are still the mismatch of the night. If not, the game comes down to whether USC can run the ball at all against a front that has given up almost nothing on the ground.

Game preview: Miami at North Carolina 7:30 PM ET · Miami -14 · total 53.5 · our model: Miami by 16.4 Best available lines (as of 12:00 PM ET Saturday): Miami -14 (-108, BetMGM); North Carolina +14.5 (-122, FanDuel); Over 53 (-114, BetRivers); Under 53.5 (-110, BetMGM). Miami was a 15-point favorite on Monday, down from 16.5 on Sunday, and the total rose to 52.5 from 50.5. It sits at Miami -14 as of Saturday. Miami is 7-0 and scoring 49 points a game. Last week's 52-23 win over Pitt was another clinic, and Miami pulled its starters at 52-14 with about 13 minutes left, coach Mario Cristobal said. North Carolina comes in off a 31-30 overtime loss to Syracuse, its third defeat, and hosts the Hurricanes in prime time at Kenan Stadium. The matchup Miami's passing game is the strongest part of either team by a wide margin. QB Darian Mensah completed 31 of 37 passes for 387 yards and four touchdowns against Pitt, and WR Malachi Toney, third among receivers in our player ratings, caught 16 of them for three scores. Over the season, Miami gains 0.703 expected points added per dropback, and national efficiency ratings rank its offense first nationally. North Carolina's pass defense allows 218 yards a game and sits 42nd in national efficiency ratings on defense. Miami also converts 55% of its third downs, so once a drive starts, it rarely stalls. What decides it North Carolina has to match points through the air. Its run game is unlikely to help much. The Tar Heels average 114 rushing yards, and Miami allows 60 a game at well below-zero efficiency per carry. That puts the game on QB Billy Edwards Jr., who threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover against Syracuse. Edwards has targets who can make it interesting. WR Jordan Shipp caught eight passes for 102 yards against the Orange, and TE Jelani Thurman, second among tight ends in our ratings, added seven catches. Miami's pass defense allows 239 yards a game, and Pitt threw for 334 last week, much of it after the starters left. Cristobal listed a coverage lapse, the Hail Mary defense and backups who fell short among the fixes from that game. Miami's secondary should be whole. Cristobal said Monday that CB Xavier Lucas "seems good" and that he expects him fully back. He also praised North Carolina as one of the least penalized teams in the country, a contrast with the four pre-snap penalties he called four too many against Pitt. The market Miami was a 14.5-point favorite on Thursday and Friday and 14 on Saturday. The line jumped to 16.5 on Sunday, came back to 15 on Monday and sat at 14.5 as of Tuesday morning, while the total rose from 50.5 to 52.5. Miami sits at -14 as of Saturday morning, with a total of 53.5. Our model has Miami by 16.4 with a total of 51.4, close to the market on both. With the numbers that close, the matchups carry the story. Miami has won by double digits in every game except a 43-35 win over Florida State, and its defense gave up 35 in that one. North Carolina's path is a version of that game, where Edwards trades scores with Mensah into the fourth quarter. History is on the Tar Heels' side, since Miami has lost five straight to North Carolina since 2018 and has not won in Chapel Hill in nine years. On Saturday, watch the first few Miami drives. If North Carolina can force a punt or two early and keep Edwards throwing with the score close, the Tar Heels have a game. If Toney gets loose again, this one gets away quickly.

Game preview: Mississippi State at Texas 7:30 PM ET · Texas -20.5 · total 50.5 · our model: Texas by 16 Best available lines (as of 12:00 PM ET Saturday): Texas -20 (-110, BetMGM); Mississippi State +20.5 (-109, BetRivers); Over 50.5 (-110, BetMGM); Under 50.5 (-105, DraftKings). Mississippi State said Monday that QB Kamario Taylor will miss the Texas game and the rest of the season after foot surgery. Texas was still a 21-point favorite as of Tuesday morning, with the total down half a point to 50.5. It sits at Texas -20.5 as of Saturday. Mississippi State started 4-0, including a 41-34 win at South Carolina. It has since lost three straight, scoring 15 points combined in the last two, a 31-0 loss at LSU and a 23-15 home loss to Oklahoma. Texas comes in off a 34-27 win over Ole Miss that ended a two-game skid, and it hosts the Bulldogs on Saturday night. The matchup Texas won that game on the ground. RB Raleek Brown ran 23 times for 157 yards, and the Longhorns finished with 207 rushing yards, well above their season average of 145. Mississippi State's run defense is its sturdier half, at roughly average efficiency per carry, so a repeat isn't automatic. The Texas defense played without EDGE Colin Simmons, the top-ranked edge rusher in our player ratings, who missed the Ole Miss game with an ankle injury, and Texas finished without a sack. Friday's SEC availability report lists Simmons as out. Even so, national efficiency ratings have the Texas defense seventh nationally. The offense took two hits in that win. OL Trevor Goosby, the starting left tackle, is listed out on the SEC availability report after a knee injury against Ole Miss. Coach Steve Sarkisian said OL Andre Cojoe played a pretty good game after being thrown in, and he blamed one sack fumble on a lapse in focus. WR Cam Coleman hurt his left shoulder diving for a catch and did not return against Ole Miss; he is no longer listed on the SEC availability report. What decides it Mississippi State's quarterback is the story of the week. QB Kamario Taylor threw only five passes against Oklahoma before the foot injury that ended his season. Coach Jeff Lebby said after that game the job would go to whoever protects the ball best, and he has not named a starter between QB Billy Puckett and QB AJ Swann. Puckett, a former walk-on, finished the Oklahoma game 17 of 24 for 158 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and he started the shutout at LSU. Swann has yet to throw a pass this season. He brings 4,236 career passing yards from stops at Vanderbilt, LSU and Appalachian State. The Bulldogs went 1 for 11 on third down against the Sooners. The State passing game had been its best weapon, averaging 265 yards a game, most of that with Taylor. Texas also has to tidy up its own game. QB Arch Manning threw two interceptions and lost a fumble against Ole Miss, and the Longhorns are minus 3 in turnover margin. The market Texas was a 21-point favorite as of Tuesday morning, with the total at 50.5. Texas sits at -20.5 as of Saturday morning, with a total of 50.5. Our model has Texas by 16 with a total of 54.8, five points closer than the market. That number is built on season results, most of them with Taylor at quarterback, so the gap reads differently this week. The market's bigger number has support in the last month. Mississippi State has lost three straight and was shut out at LSU, and national efficiency ratings have its defense 68th. The case for a closer game starts with a Texas offense that has been uneven, scoring 24 points in each of its two losses, and now has a new left tackle. On Saturday, watch who lines up under center for State and whether the Bulldogs can stay on schedule against the Texas front. For Texas, the early tell is how Cojoe holds up on the edge and whether Coleman gets his post routes.