Havana Syndrome: This week, I went in-depth @thecipherbrief about my new directed-energy weapon reporting - Since early August, at least two senior U.S. government personnel working on directed-energy-related projects have reported suspect attacks in the greater D.C. area. - Attribution for a device obtained by the U.S. government that maybe linked to Havana Syndrome is 'far advanced' - The technical analysis has revealed a distinct signature. - More than two dozen suspected incidents have recently been reported domestically, including a cluster of cases at an off-site U.S. government intelligence and research facility in Northern Virginia, according to multiple sources. Full Discussion 👇

I'd encourage everyone to read the Danish military intelligence assessment in full, and not rely on excitable social media upsums. Here is the top line: "The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past. This could include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties." In other words, Russia will continue doing what it's already doing (terrorist attacks against hard and soft targets, cyberoperations), only more so. This is an uncontroversial assessment across Western intelligence services, so far as I've been able to determine. DDIS continues: "At the same time, there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia....Such a limited military attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long‑range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support to Ukraine. In this situation, Russia might then claim that the weapons only struck NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a NATO country." The scenario envisaged here (a low but growing risk) is a plausibly deniable conventional attack by Russia. The objective would be twofold. First, to sow panic and confusion in the targeted country or countries, and encourage skepticism of the official government version of what just happened. "Maybe it was the Ukrainians." "Maybe it was an accident." "Maybe no attack took place and the deep state is trying to foment World War III." Thirty seconds on this hellsite should be enough to convince you that counterfactual narratives would be easy enough to amplify, especially in countries with elections forthcoming. A "limited military attack" psychologically would just be a heightened form of "hybrid" war because it's designed to overwhelm and demoralize the population and make its think that supporting Ukraine just isn't worth it since those not at war are now liable to become collateral damage. The second objective of such an attack would be to gauge NATO's response to it -- and this is key bit, because, as DDIS also states: "Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it assesses that such attacks will not result in a war by triggering a collective NATO military response. However, Russia is likely uncertain about what could trigger such a war. Consequently, there is a risk that Russia assesses that the NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia." (Italics added.) You wouldn't be wrong to detect a hint of political messaging here. (All intel services deny they do any such thing but they all do.) This is Denmark, a country that just stared down a possible U.S. invasion and annexation of Greenland, which would have meant the disintegration of NATO. Trump has spent his entire second term (and much of his first term) doubting the Inviolability of Article V. His Pentagon has given NATO allies questionnaires to fill out to prove their worthiness as allies, while it undergoes a force posture review with ominous media leaks about what Bridge Colby and his minion might do (25,000 U.S. troops withdrawn, a scuppered U.S. base in Poland, etc.) Now comes a frenzy of intelligence reporting across Europe about a possible Russian attack on NATO, all kickstarted by a CIA briefing delivered to the Poles, Scandinavians and Balts months ago with a warning that they're probably on their own if and when such an attack happens. Never let a good crisis go to waste... Russia isn't sure what would trigger a war with NATO, so how might NATO make it sure? A "limited military attack" can be deterred if Washington telegraphs its intent to enforce Article V in word and deed by stating clearly and repeatedly what would constitute a casus belli in 2026 and, of course, by keeping U.S. troops in Europe.

What if one of the clearest signs that Iran is getting serious about diplomacy… is escalation? Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran Norman Roule says that’s one of the scenarios national security professionals should be watching closely. If Tehran concludes the pressure it faces is becoming unsustainable, Roule says Iranian leaders may seek to strengthen their position beforepursuing a deal. That makes what happens next particularly important — because escalation and progress may not be mutually exclusive. In this clip, Roule tells The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly what he’s watching for — and the risk that could dramatically change the trajectory of the conflict. Watch the analysis. Then watch what happens next. #Iran #MiddleEast #NationalSecurity #Intelligence #Geopolitics #TheCipherBrief

Geopolitics is moving faster than the institutions, markets and governments trying to keep pace. The advantage belongs to those who understand what’s changing — and why — before the consequences arrive. Staying informed is no longer enough. You need to stay ahead. TODAY’S OPEN SOURCE REPORT The U.S. and Iran hold their first talks since June after President Trump threatens “annihilation.” Xi Jinping heads to Washington as China arrives with growing technological, manufacturing and energy leverage. The U.S., Denmark and Greenland strike a new Arctic security agreement amid rising strategic competition in the High North. Ukraine warns Russia may be preparing another massive attack as Moscow continues drone strikes across the country. The ShinyHunters hacking group claims it breached the FBI and stole data belonging to thousands of federal agents. Plus, Cipher Brief experts and former senior intelligence officials break down the threats behind the headlines — from AI-enabled adversaries and vulnerabilities in the military chain of command to Putin’s strategy and Iran’s next moves. The Cipher Brief Open Source Report brings national security professionals the developments that matter — and the expert context to understand what comes next. Subscriber+ members get the full OSR and exclusive Cipher Brief analysis. thecipherbrief.com/report/gl… #TheCipherBrief #OpenSourceReport #NationalSecurity #Intelligence #Geopolitics #China #Iran #Russia #Ukraine #Cybersecurity #AI #ArcticSecurity

I just had a positive and productive meeting with President Trump @POTUS at UNGA. Both the U.S. and Ukraine want to see this senseless Russian war ended before winter. We discussed potential de-escalatory steps that can open up the way to diplomacy. I am grateful that in the meantime our teams keep working on launching Patriot interceptor production in Ukraine. This is what will help protect lives, should Russia spurn the negotiations and keep betting on ballistic missile terror against our people this winter and beyond. We also discussed other bilateral and multilateral issues, including a winter package of air defense for Ukraine. I thank President Trump, his team, and all the American people for their support.

The race for AI dominance isn't just about better models. It's about infrastructure — and ultimately, who shapes the information those models deliver. Shawn Chenoweth tells The Cipher Brief's Suzanne Kelly why he sees the battle over America's data centers as a national security issue — and warns what could happen if U.S. competitors gain the advantage. Watch the full State Secrets conversation on The Cipher Brief's You Tube Channel #ArtificialIntelligence #AI #NationalSecurity #China #InformationWarfare #TheCipherBrief

America's adversaries don't need to fire a shot to have an impact. Shawn Chenoweth, the NSC's's Director for Cognitive Advantage, explains how China, Russia and other U.S. competitors use the information environment to influence perceptions, decisions — and America's social fabric. Watch the full conversation with Suzanne Kelly on The Cipher Brief's State Secrets podcast. #NationalSecurity #InformationWarfare #China #Russia #Disinformation #TheCipherBrief

“We could hear gunfire, anti-aircraft fire and the buzz of a drone.” Glenn Corn recounts the moment passengers - including mothers and children - ran from a train before a Russian drone struck a nearby locomotive, less than two kilometers from Poland. Watch the full conversation, "Playing with Fire" on The Cipher Brief's You Tube Channel- piped.video/R_0mbWaCY0Q #Ukraine #NATO

Characteristically shrewd reporting from Shaun, citing Czechs, Latvians and Estonians. My advice, based on my own conversations in the past 72 hours, is this: Do not conflate assessments of what might happen with assessments of what will or is likely to happen. The probability of escalation in so-called "hybrid attacks" (read: acts of Russian state terrorism) remains the NATO consensus. That is dangerous enough to warrant a collective European response without panic over Article V and its perceived wobbliness, hypotheticals that play right into Moscow's hands. Also be mindful of how European countries facing upcoming elections are instrumentalizing threats, both real and perceived, for electoral purposes. Main takeaway: if this chatter leads to greater vigilance and defense commitments, great. But those should be the goal anyway, without the hysteria.

How far can Putin escalate without triggering Article 5? Glenn Corn says Russia is deliberately operating just below NATO’s threshold - and warns that every inadequate response may encourage Moscow to take the next step. Watch the full conversation on The Cipher Brief's You Tube channel. #NATO #Russia #GrayZone

The Pentagon is weighing a drastic plan to pull planes, ships, weapons and tens of thousands of U.S. troops from Europe, despite warnings from NATO allies about the growing threat of Russian aggression, sources say. nbcnews.com/politics/nationa…

NBC News Exclusive: A warning. On the heels of the first-of-its-kind indictment against the Russian Intel, Jamie McDonald, the new US Attorney in Manhattan, says they had to infiltrate this group. The alarming trend in nation-state terror: piped.video/_9n53bhQ7XM

Russia is playing with fire. Glenn Corn says a slight targeting error during the drone attack near his train could have caused a mass-casualty event involving civilians and foreign officials. His warning: Russia’s provocations demand a clear and swift response. Full video on The Cipher Brief's You Tube. #Ukraine #NATO

Putin may talk about negotiations, but Glenn Corn believes his real message is: “I’m stronger than you are, and I can outlast you.” The strategy: prolong the talks, continue attacking Ukraine and wait for Western resolve to weaken. #Ukraine #Russia

You are already a target in the influence war. NSC Director for Cognitive Advantage Shawn Chenoweth explains how Russia, China and Iran exploit American divisions - and how AI is transforming the fight over what people believe. @SuzanneKelly_ Watch: piped.video/OMGLpCLuRU0

What if one of the first critical decisions in a war over Taiwan is made not at the Pentagon—but in a corporate boardroom? Satellites. Cloud. Chips. AI. Michael Salazar argues America needs to establish the rules with its tech giants before the first shot is fired. Read his new Cipher Brief column. thecipherbrief.com/setting-t… #NationalSecurity #China #Tech

The strategic warning lights are flashing. 🇺🇸 Iran war cost: $33.4B 🛰️ U.S. confirms weapons in space 🇷🇺 Russia tests NATO 🇨🇳 China tightens controls Plus: Is America ready to power the AI race—and fight in AI’s emerging “sixth domain”? Read today’s Cipher Brief OSR. #NationalSecurity thecipherbrief.com/report/gl…