prediction markets just became programmable public’s new agents can watch event odds and use them to trigger a stock or bond trade fed cut odds cross 70% → buy duration recession odds jump → reduce bank exposure the new primitive is simple: event probability → portfolio action this is how prediction markets become financial infrastructure

been thinking about this a lot lately crypto somehow went from “invent entirely new economic systems” to “what if tradfi but 40ms faster” mechanism design needs to become cool again and i know fish and the team are cooking some heat

vitalik saying this publicly is a pretty big tell imo prediction markets don’t need another venue fighting over the same sports/politics flow they need people fucking around with the actual mechanics again been saying this category needs its defi summer moment this feels much closer to it

zcash spent 10 years trying to become private bitcoin now bitcoin might get zcash-style privacy without a fork, bridge or new token if shielded bitcoin works, the entire privacy coin trade gets awkward fast

we called protocol-owned liquidity defi 2.0 last cycle the real version is protocols becoming onchain capital allocators > fees build a treasury > the treasury holds productive assets > those assets become collateral borrowed capital funds liquidity and growth without printing another reward token the uncomfortable question is whether tokenholders actually own that balance sheet or are just spectators with governance rights

1/ Huge respect for Dragonfly continuing to invest in the bear market. But I'm morally obliged to call out sketchy projects gaining momentum. As a community we must preempt large scale implosions like #FTX or #LUNA that set the industry back years Bitget may be the next FTX 🧵

market makers and trading agents can now plug into hyperliquid the way they would a traditional exchange instead of scraping a crypto venue that should mean deeper books and tighter spreads. it also moves the speed advantage further away from humans does better infrastructure make the market fairer, or just professionalize who gets there first?

starting to think the best RWA trade isn’t going to be the RWA it’s whoever turns all this into collateral $1b already deposited into morpho on robinhood chain, ~$450m borrowed if tokenized stocks keep growing the obvious next step is people levering them, borrowing against them, LPing them, refinancing them etc same thing happened with ETH first everyone wanted to own it, then an entire economy got built around making the asset productive watching borrow growth / utilization / fees way more than TVL here TVL with no borrows is tourists TVL + rising utilization is an actual credit market feels early as hell

We’re opening STX to a select group of launch partners. If you’re building the next generation of consumer sports apps and need low-latency execution, reliable infrastructure, and real-time markets, we want to hear from you. Build on STX. Own the experience. Let us power the exchange underneath. DM us to become a launch partner.

prediction markets are speedrunning 100 years of market structure problems in public first insider information now markets on words/actions people can influence themselves next comes agents finding “public” information faster than any human possibly can this category is going to need way more market design than people realize

HIP-3 probably ends with people trading things that never had a liquid futures market before everyone focuses on stocks + commodities because they’re obvious i’m waiting for the strange stuff private companies, indexes invented by communities, creator revenue, maybe even protocol KPIs permissionless perps supercycle

hype looks ready to print $100 at any moment now but imo the journey matters more than the round number hyperliquid began by doing one thing exceptionally well: perps it built the product before the token, found real usage, distributed ownership to users and connected protocol activity back to $HYPE through staking, collateral and fee-funded buybacks now $HYPE is around $96 with roughly $2.1b of open interest on its own perp this is no longer a dex token trading purely on narrative. it has become a liquid claim on one of crypto’s most important pieces of market infrastructure and the next chapter is much bigger than another ath payward intends to bring permissioned HIP-3 perpetual markets to US clients. at the same time, the hyperliquid policy effort is pushing regulators to create a real path for onchain perps in america the next is letting every app become a frontend to the same markets

For the entire year we've been heads down building. Today I can finally tell you what it is. It's called Forecaster. The whole thing started from something that has always bugged me: You can follow the timeline all day and still not know who's actually right. Everyone sounds certain. Nobody keeps score. So we built the place that does. Every call in the open, win or lose. Find out who's actually right. Then back them. We're calling it skill markets. That's all I'll say for now. More soon on @Forecaster_gg.

prediction markets might create a funny arms race AI gets better at finding information before humans humans realize they’re increasingly the slow side of the trade so instead of competing with the machine, they start using the same market to hedge against what the machine knows one side monetizes information the other monetizes protection that’s a real market

You think City wins. What gives you conviction? Watch a creator call 2–0. See who’s backing City with real money and read their reasoning. From opinion to conviction. All on Asta.

why do tight spreads disappear just when you want to trade? for a market maker, a stale quote is an offer someone else can accept after the odds change reliable cancellations matter as much as fast execution STX asked 4 market makers what earns their trust.

paradigm just did $6.1b through deribit 60% of total deribit volume that’s the cleanest example of how important RFQ has become deribit is the exchange paradigm is where a huge chunk of the big trades actually get done

polymarket doesn’t have a public token you can now trade a 3x POLYMARKET perp on binance wallet anyway there’s also a $4.8m tokenized wrapper giving indirect exposure to polymarket the company and you can use tokenized stocks as margin for the perp crypto is starting to build derivatives on assets before the assets even exist publicly pre-IPO price discovery is about to get very strange