I'm grappling with the impact of the proposed changes to the triple lock. It is impossible for any savings to arise until 2031/32 at the earliest, as 2030/21 is the baseline, I think? After that, savings only arrive if following a period of weak wage growth, it picks up again and outstrips both inflation and 2.5% for a period. So you need tough years followed by good years before any saving can arise.
Does
@ifs (or anyone else) have the probability of this proposal producing no savings at all by 2040? If we do enter a halcyon period where strong wage growth outstrips inflation (which must be what the Government would aim for), then Burnham has just announced a Social Care Policy and a change to the triple lock that generates no future savings to pay for it!
@julianHjessop can you help at all?