Just finished with the $ORCL earnings call and more goodies if you ask me. First, the more obvious one is revenue acceleration, and it's one thing to say it, but in Oracle's case, they have strong support behind it: Q4 24: 14.3B ➡️ Q1 25: 13.3B ⬇️ (seasonal decline) Q4 25: 15.9B ➡️ Q1 26: 14.9B ⬇️ (seasonal decline) Q4 26: 19.2B ➡️ Q1 26: 19.3B ⬆️ (rise). This is something I am hoping to see in the $PATH case as proof of acceleration but still waiting. Now back to the topic. The majority of the newly secured contracts came in the form of some kind of prepayment or bring-your-own hardware (26 billion). Half of their RPO is expected to be converted into revenue in the next 36 months. Total RPO: 664B During the next 3 years: 332B Another positive was that, yes, Capex was 28 billion, but it was a mix of customer prepayments and Oracle's own cash (it was not financed completely from Oracle's side). The next piece of information answered two of my questions (discussed in more detail on my Substack): "Of all the GPUs that came up for renewal in Q1, that capacity was renewed or resold at a 20% premium to prior contracts. The majority of those GPUs are 4 years or older. " First question is: can capacity remain highly utilized? 97.9% of total utilization answers that. The second question is: how long are GPUs economically useful? The fact that GPUs can be resold at a 20% premium when they are 4+ years old gives another positive affirmation. Lastly, an interesting piece of information they shared is that when data centers go live, for example, if you have a big capacity like 1 GW, not all of it goes active at once; it goes in multiple stages, in smaller batches. Price action managed to turn negative on the day, but I am not worried. I saw all I wanted to see in this earnings, and September usually is not kind to stocks, and the hot print in PPI and CPI certainly didn't help.

$GRAB CEO Anthony Tan buys 10,350,000 shares of Grab at $2.89/share. Anthony has been a net seller on the open market since the company went public. This is first open market purchase. Obviously, for him to buy $30M of stock while his net worth is around $300-400M shows how significant of a purchase this is and how much he thinks the market has lost their minds on this name. We are now looking at a public valuation LOWER than what Grab was worth in the private markets. Their enterprise value is $7B and they will profitably do $4.2B of revenue this year. Really nice to see an insider buy — it has been a tough hold but the broader thesis, in my opinion, is being executed in a VERY strong way with a horrible macro backdrop . For a CEO who has been criticized for many insider sells (many of which were pre-planned and also deserved given the guy founded the company and wasn’t liquid for a decade) it is nice to see him put almost 10% of his net worth into the company he started 15 years ago via purchases on the open market. Grab Holdings President & COO Alexander Charles Hungate also bought $867K of $GRAB with 299,571 shares at a $2.89 avg. The markets are the greatest game on earth, they will test your patience, they will turn your stomach inside out, they will drive you crazy as the price of an asset goes down while fundamentals get better, every bear case will make more sense as you see the price go down, but one thing is clear: execution and compounding earnings wins in the end. It’s nice to see a C-suite that believes in that themselves and takes advantage of that with a sizeable amount of their personal networth. The story continues!

My official bull market indicator has flashed. Price just broke above the 2-day 200 MA cloud. Bitcoin is back in a bullish regime, unless it falls below. Each time price reclaimed the cloud after a retest on the 200-week MA, price rallied hard. Embrace nuance, risk takers.

The market may be overestimating the probability of a Fed hike tomorrow. A hike is still base case. But when the market gets this confident, I think it is worth looking at the counterarguments. 1. This does not look like 2022. Before the first hike in March 2022, the Fed spent months preparing markets for liftoff. The communication path was much clearer. This time, expectations shifted extremely fast. As recently as September 9, a Reuters poll still had the majority of economists expecting the Fed to hold. Now, 85% expect a 25 bps hike. That is a huge repricing in less than a week. 2. One hot inflation print does not necessarily force an immediate response. Inflation is clearly a problem again, especially with oil above $100, but the Fed could still choose to wait for more confirmation rather than react immediately to what may partly be an energy-driven shock. Hold does not have to mean dovish. They could hold tomorrow and Warsh could use the press conference to deliver an extremely hawkish message, keeping a hike firmly on the table for the next meeting. 3. The political backdrop is unusual. Trump continues to publicly push for lower rates, while the U.S. is heading into the midterms. That should not determine Fed policy, but it is part of the environment in which this decision is being made. None of this means the Fed will hold. The inflation data, oil shock and recent economic strength all make a hike completely defensible, and it remains the most likely outcome. My point is simply this: What happens if we get a hold decision tommorow?