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The trader panel revealed who actually produces these prices: - A CPA using poker math - A teacher tracking Billboard for 11 years - A political trader who flies to rallies and exit polls people with a posterboard - A full-time prediction market trader since 2007 None of them work in finance.
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Prediction markets aren't just a trading product anymore. They're becoming financial data infrastructure — a new layer alongside Bloomberg consensus, options IV, and polling data. The mechanism works. The institutions are arriving. The regulators are accommodating. Full report: docsend.com/view/advkmc3beni…
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Replying to @Kalshi
@Kalshi just held its first-ever Research Conference. Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, the NHL, a Federal Reserve researcher, and a public school teacher from Ohio were all in the same room. Here's what they discussed and what it means for the market 🧵
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The regulatory picture: - CFTC withdrew its proposed ban on political + sports contracts - Congress targeting specific categories (sports, casino games), not blanket bans - Federal courts siding with CFTC jurisdiction in NV and NJ - Former Congressman Mondaire Jones: "no plausible path to banning them"
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The NHL became the first major league to officially partner with a prediction market. Their Chief Business Officer said fans are 10x more likely to engage with a game when they have a stake in the outcome. Zero cannibalization with existing sportsbook deals.
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70% of Kalshi users never place a trade. They check recession odds before refinancing. They monitor Fed probabilities. They track elections. Robin Hanson (George Mason) argues the biggest long-term market isn't traders — it's organizations willing to pay to subsidize markets for information.
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Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins/NBER) presented a Federal Reserve working paper: - Perfect forecast record day-before FOMC meetings - Outperforms Bloomberg consensus on CPI - Real advantage isn't point accuracy — it's full probability distributions, updated every second No other mechanism produces this.
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Bloomberg is integrating Kalshi data into its terminals. The same terminal that costs $24K/year is now pulling price signals produced in part by a teacher who tracks Billboard charts on the Notes app. That teacher was quoted in Rolling Stone. His model is a calculator and an iPhone.
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Goldman's Cyril Goddeeris: CPI prints will be the first institutional hedging use case. Yale/AQR's Toby Moskowitz called prediction markets "complete markets" — instruments that let you hedge risks no existing product covers: tariffs, unemployment, GDP outcomes. "The genie is out of the bottle."
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The Wall Street panel was the headline: Bloomberg, Tradeweb, Goldman Sachs, Yale/AQR, CNBC. Tradeweb's Troy Dixon compared prediction markets to the early CDS market — $1T to $62T in 6 years once infrastructure was standardized. He's building that infrastructure for prediction markets right now.
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Kalshi reported $3 billion in weekly trading volume during the conference. Sports was 80% of it (March Madness). But other categories — politics, entertainment, crypto, economics — are growing faster by trader count
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Tophash Digital retweeted
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Tophash Digital retweeted
Getting a lot of questions on Binance vs. OKX performance... Looking strictly at Spot listings without a day-1 Coinbase or Upbit listing: 🟡 Binance has surprisingly outperformed
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As an update to Episode 1 of Tophash's Comprehensive Listing Analysis The trends observed in July 2025 reiterate the broader patterns we stated in the report: 🔹 Binance remains the dominant force in exchange listings, recording a 14x increase in listings compared to July 2024 🔹 Binance DEX launches (Alpha/IDO) continue to outpace all other listing programs, a momentum we expect to accelerate with the rollout of the Booster Program and Bonding Curve 🔹 Binance Perps maintained its monthly average of 17 listings 🔹 Upbit, Bithumb, Coinbase and Bybit continued demonstrating increasing listing activity 🔹 OKX’s listing activity continues to decelerate, showing a 71% decline versus July 2024 Access the Full Report: docsend.com/view/xj2r52g73rp…
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Tophash Digital retweeted
We’re proud to announce the launch of our K2 Public Testnet ⛰️ Kicking things off with our Summit Series — Camp’s first ecosystem campaign. Time to lace your boots. The Climb to the Summit begins today.
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Tophash Digital retweeted
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Tophash Digital retweeted
$GLORIA is live!
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