I Only Made $2K on
@Polymarket This Month. I’m Still Happy With It. 🥳🥳🥳
I saw another trader post that he made more than $5K on Polymarket this month.
My result was around $2K.
It’s not a huge number, and I’m not posting it as a flex. But after everything I went through while building this bot, I’m happy with it.
I started working seriously on Polymarket bots last December. Since then, I’ve tested different strategies across several accounts, rewritten the execution logic many times and watched ideas that looked perfect in paper trading fall apart with real orders.
At the beginning, I focused too much on predicting the market.
I thought that if the bot could correctly predict whether BTC would go Up or Down, the rest would be easy.
It wasn’t.
Sometimes the signal was correct, but the entry price was too high. Sometimes the bot got filled on one side and couldn’t hedge at a reasonable price. Sometimes a quick reversal happened while an order was still open.
The worst strategies were often the ones with a high win rate.
They could make small profits again and again, then one bad market would wipe out everything. I built a version that worked like this. It looked great until BTC moved sharply near the end of the market and the hedge became too expensive.
That experience changed how I build trading systems.
Now I care less about how often the bot wins and more about what happens when it is wrong.
The current bot checks the underlying BTC movement, Polymarket’s order book, available liquidity, fees, slippage and how long the signal remains valid. It also calculates whether the possible edge is still worth taking after execution costs.
Most importantly, the bot is allowed to do nothing.
That sounds simple, but it made a big difference. A bot doesn’t need to trade every market. Some windows are noisy, some have bad liquidity and some don’t offer enough edge after fees.
Skipping a bad trade is also part of the strategy.
I also added strict limits for one-sided exposure, position size and daily losses. If a price feed becomes stale, the order book changes too quickly or the hedge is no longer available, the bot stops opening new positions.
None of this looks exciting in a screenshot, but this is the work that keeps a bot alive.
The $2K came with relatively limited capital, so naturally I want to test with more funds this month. But I’m not going to assume that doubling the capital will automatically double the profit.
Larger orders can receive worse prices. They can move through several levels of the book, increase slippage and become harder to hedge. Before scaling, I need to know how much capital the strategy can actually handle without changing its behavior.
I’m also researching a new direction: combining Polymarket’s daily or monthly crypto prediction markets with perpetual futures.
The idea is to identify prediction markets that appear mispriced, take the prediction position and use a perp position to reduce some of the directional risk.
This is not guaranteed arbitrage.
A prediction share has a binary payout, while a perp moves continuously with BTC. The hedge has to be adjusted as the market moves, and funding, fees, liquidation risk and differences between settlement price feeds all matter.
But I think there is something worth exploring there, especially in daily and monthly markets where there is more time to price the probability and manage the hedge.
For now, I’m continuing to collect data and improve the current bot.
I would rather share an honest $2K result than pretend every strategy prints money.
The goal isn’t one impressive month.
The goal is to build something that can survive long enough to produce many of them.