Author: The Investor's Mind, Framing Business Uncertainty | convexia.in/subscribe/ | antifragilethinking.substack…
Greener outside of London
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Every 20x has a graveyard nobody photographs. Fan clubs disband for reasons that have nothing to do with the business.
CDMO | Laurus Labs | Neuland Labs
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Episode 2: The Company at 15
Laurus Labs
Divi's Labs
Cohance Life
Syngene
antifragilethinking.substack…
Safe harbour: Illustrative examples, not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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If you live and earn in USD, GBP or any non-INR currency, remember: your portfolio is not your only currency exposure. Your salary, home, spending and future liabilities may already make you structurally long that currency.
Likewise, if most of your wealth, income and future spending are in INR, owning only INR assets can create a concentration you may not see on the portfolio statement.
The mistake is to diversify what you own while ignoring what you already are.
Don’t try to predict which currency will win. First ask: what happens to me if mine doesn’t?
Expect the unexpected. Build for it.
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The interesting question was never how fast Aether can grow.
It was whether growth is making the system more capable, more optional and harder to break.
More chemistry, leading to complex molecules, deeper customer integration, better economics, more cash for R&D and CAPEX, and more capabilities.
A reinforcing loop.
The Talebian question: does complexity create optionality rather than fragility?
That is what I was trying to understand through my questions to management.
Disclaimer: This is a personal analytical framework, not investment advice.
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Obvious compounds into the price.
Unseen compounds into the surprise.
Weekend special coming soon ...
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The Nonlinear Capital-Lag Framework (Industry Agnostic Framework)
Episode 1: The System Before the Stock
Cohance and Syngene
antifragilethinking.substack…
I've deliberately planted a few gaps and known bugs in this beta release. Do not mistake it for investment advice ;)
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This was a timely wake up call for those who cared 🙏
She's so right, for reasons such as:
1. Life insurance is not a regulated sector in India
2. HDFC are always on the right side of underwriting
3. There's zero risk of losses due to internal and external fraud
4. There's is absolutely no competition
5. They've complete control over pricing and costs :)
#HDFCLife
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I've deliberately planted a few gaps and known bugs in this beta release. Do not mistake it for investment advice ;)
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A proxy is useful until you mistake it for the thing itself. That is how models quietly become sources of fragility.
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Well said Doc 👍🏽
One of the most under appreciated part of the investing is one’s own behavior.
Would appreciate @unseenvalue if you can make this post public, many would benefit from it.
Multibaggers will keep coming but you have to survive to watch them become one.
antifragilethinking.substack…
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You Cannot Compound What Can Go to Zero
Designing a Kill Switch: Price, Time or Thesis
Stock names are for illustration only. Absolutely no advice. Read the disclaimer.
antifragilethinking.substack…
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Well, the dividends this year have been directed to make the most.
@unseenvalue sir any pre requisite before I pick them up?
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RFP to failure in phase 3 or commercial success could take anywhere from 3 years to 15 years. Early phase RFP has much higher failure probability. Second, a single phase 3 RFP on commercial can generate much higher cash flows than 50 phase 1s where success probability is too low!
#NeulandLaboratories gets record RFPs in three months as drugmakers diversify beyond China
cnbctv18.com/business/compan…
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Compete with no one but yesterday’s you. Raise the bar. Then breach it.
Start with how you see. Share that with conviction.
Seen value is priced. Unseen value is opportunity.
Coming soon!
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You never do war games when the real war is on. Then, winning is the sole choice.
That is why we rehearse the crash when things are calm. Not to predict what will happen, but to understand ourselves before the pressure arrives. Once the crash is real, there is no time left for introspection. There is only action.
Aerospace
AI/Data Centre
CDMO
Defence ... any other "hot" theme ... Peter Lynch 🙏
Pinned X is a reminder, not a prediction!
Sir @unseenvalue this is one of the best articulation you have given.
Forces you to introspect, ask yourself, judge your personality, mark your comfort zone and see how will you react if something happends outside it.
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