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If you are a Cubs fan and you aren't going to Murphys bleachers.
Then you aren't a real Cubs fan.
Meet Rizzo's, a Chicago sports bar that lives and dies by Cubs home games. When the Cubs play at Wrigley, Rizzo's is packed and pulls in tens of thousands of dollars a night. When the Cubs don't play at home, the bar takes a hit.
Playoff season makes that swing even bigger, so Rizzo's hedged it on Kalshi.
We made a market for them: How many playoff games will the Cubs host this season? Rizzo's position: NO on 2+ home games.
If the Cubs host 2+ games, Rizzo's has extra playoff nights and makes thousands in added revenue.
If the Cubs host fewer, Rizzo's misses out on that playoff revenue, but their Kalshi position pays out to cover it.
Either way, Rizzo's is covered.
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Big ups to the @hydromancerxyz team for accepting us into their builder program.
Amazing team and even better partners.
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ELI5: why a prediction market price is a probability.
a YES share pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if it doesnt. trading at 62 cents = the crowd says 62% odds.
think raffle tickets: 100 tickets, one $100 prize, a fair ticket costs $1. pay more and you think the odds are better than posted.
buy YES at 62c and it hits: +38c a share. misses: you lose the 62c.
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the fed doesn't meet until october. polymarket already prices a 70% chance they hike.
stocks red. bonds red. yields back at pre-2008 levels. the odds moved before a single official said a word.
by the time the statement drops, the market will have traded it for weeks.
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robinhood, on the record: "if we get the right regulatory structure, we will absolutely have perps."
a16z pegs perps on stocks, gold and other real-world assets at a $100B market already.
every broker in america is about to discover funding rates.
which ticker gets the most degen perp volume on day one?
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holders sent 47.6K BTC to exchanges near $88k. $161M in decade-old coins woke up too.
Then we crashed to $84K.
sounds bearish until you see the other side of the tape. BTC ETFs took in $715M the same day and inflows flipped positive on the year.
Bull is back.
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the CFTC chairman told markets to prepare for mass tokenization of stocks, bonds and collateral.
Trillions of assets are being tokenized in the background.
whats the last asset class you expect to survive offchain?
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Let the people trade what they want!
26% chance Madison Beer marries NFL QB Justin Herbert by end of year.
poly.market/osors9L
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ELI5: margin.
margin = trading with borrowed money. put down $20, control a $100 position: thats 5x leverage.
works like a mortgage: small down payment, big house. if the price falls too far, the lender takes the house back (liquidation).
this week margin got filed for prediction markets. same borrowed money, brand new casino.
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quietly, tradfi just had its most onchain week yet:
SoFi moved a $25B card program onto its own stablecoin. canada's six biggest banks are exploring tokenised deposits. nasdaq picked pyth for real-time market data.
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ELI5: volatility futures.
volatility = how big prices swing, not which way.
a vol index turns it into a score: a calm market might read 40, a wild one 90.
vol futures let you trade the score itself. like betting on how rowdy the party gets, not who wins the game.
btc volatility futures started trading on hyperliquid today under the ticker $BVIV
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everyone is watching hyperliquid's valuation chase nasdaq's.
the better race is one rung down. variational just did $3.7B in a day and flipped aster for the #2 spot. jupiter added 6 perp markets this morning, SPCX and SK hynix included.
first place is settled. the battle has begun for second.
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