ex-quant founder; building the financial prediction market @Omnibook_xyz
San Francisco, CA
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I spent nearly a decade as a quant trader.
Building systems. Tuning algorithms. Bleeding for every ounce of P&L. One bad month and you don't sleep.
In 2022, I was in a meeting with a biz dev guy from the NSE. We were talking the massive numbers printed by top quant shops.
Then he said something that stopped me cold: "All of this pales in comparison to NSE itself."
His description of the business of India's largest exchange was simple: a machine you turn on at 9:00AM, turn off at 3:30PM, and count the money.
I felt sick. In a good way.
The exchange has no dog in the fight. It collects the toll while traders fight each other on its rails. Many exchanges run 50%+ NET margins. Not gross. Net.
Traders eat what they kill. Exchanges own the jungle.
An exchange is one of the best business shapes that exist. In the same league as ads, payment processing, and insurance. A toll booth on human activity.
I knew right then I'd build one someday.
Last year I stepped away from trading to build something venture scale.
My first instinct was to build an exchange. But I didn't pull the trigger and went on a soul search instead. And six months and many pivots later I ended up exactly where I started: building an exchange.
The last bit of math I did in my head: if I'm leaving a stable cash flowing business to start another, might as well just go for the jugular. This should be the last business I build and the one I run for the rest of my life.
And funnily enough it's one that demands everything I enjoy and am good at: trading, building, marketing, branding, design, community, social media. All of it.
At the risk of sounding melodramatic: I've been a gambler for nearly a decade, and now I'm building the casino.
Yesterday, @omnibook_xyz went live on testnet.
The machine is on.
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Getting rich with prediction markets is so easy.
Just buy when its 1¢ and sell when its 99¢.
Too easy.
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risk is the lifeblood of capitalism.
financial markets are the infrastructure for taking, transferring and pricing risk.
prediction markets are emerging as a new financial primitive.
so far they’ve mostly been pointed at sports, politics and pop culture.
@Omnibook_xyz is the prediction market for finance.
only finance.
our mission is to build the best market in the world for taking and transferring financial risk.
this is not your grandfather’s stock exchange.
this is not your younger brother’s sports betting app.
this is the place where any financial view becomes a trade, instantly.
this is the derivatives layer for the real economy.
this is omnibook.
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the real turing test is whether the ai can sit through a demo and say "interesting" without buying anything
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it's messed up that there a million songs about love but zero about hopping on a quick call with key stakeholders
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the boys be cooking!!
Yeok landed in San Francisco and, two days later, flew to Taiwan to get Caldera’s motors built.
He slept in bunk beds with factory workers, took cold showers, and stayed focused on getting the job done.
He and Raghav met through EF. Now they’re building Caldera with one goal: to build the best robotic manufacturing company in the world.
Next week, they’ll be pitching at Demo Day in San Francisco.
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the world is split into two kinds of people
people who like pineapple on pizza
and people with low iq
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Questions i was asked today
Did you try jev
Did you try muse
Did you try grokbot
Did you try opus 5.5
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