Mark Carney built a global profile in 2026 by standing up to U.S. President Donald Trump, and that stand is now fueling speculation he could win the Nobel Peace Prize and be named Time magazine’s Person of the Year.
Carney briefly became the betting favorite Monday for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market, when traders put his odds at 14 percent. His odds later fell, a reminder of how speculative such wagering is.
There is no public evidence Carney is on the Nobel Committee’s secret shortlist. The prize will be announced October 9 in Oslo, Norway.
Carney and Trump remain locked in an escalating trade war, with 50 percent U.S. tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian goods met by Canadian retaliation.
Trump has long wanted the honor himself. He has repeatedly complained about not receiving the Nobel, saying in July that he “should have won that award more than anybody.”
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, said of a potential Carney win: “President Trump would be furious, of course. If this ever happens, I would love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office to see the president’s face when he learns about it.”
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, offered a similar read: “Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel. If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.”
Carney’s case for Time’s award, to be announced December 10, rests partly on the magazine already naming him one of its 100 most influential people of 2026, noting his popularity rose as he confronted Trump. NYU professor Scott Galloway went further, calling Carney “the leader that Europe’s been looking for for the last 20 years,” and predicting he has already secured the title.