Iran’s economy just contracted 10.1% year over year, according to new official data.
And this is much bigger than oil.
• Real GDP: −10.1%
• GDP excluding oil: −4.6%
• Oil & natural gas: −26.4%
• Exports: −35.7%
• Fixed investment: −8.4%
• Machinery investment: −9.7%
• Private consumption: −4.0%
• Services: −4.8%
• Construction: −6.4%
Meanwhile, August inflation reached roughly 89% YoY, with food prices up about 128%.
And here’s the most important part:
This GDP data only runs through June 20.
It largely predates the renewed maritime blockade, the subsequent collapse in crude loadings, depletion of Iran’s offshore oil inventory, tighter sanctions enforcement and growing problems moving trade overland.
Iran’s economy was already contracting sharply before many of those pressures intensified.
Source: Statistical Center of Iran